ELECTION COMMISSION STARTS TO UNVEIL ITS PLAN FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 010467

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
NOFORN

USAID PASS TO MARK WARD AND RICKI GOLD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/05/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL PK AADP EAID
SUBJECT: ELECTION COMMISSION STARTS TO UNVEIL ITS PLAN FOR
2007 ELECTIONS - IMPLICATIONS FOR US SUPPORT

REF: ISLAMABAD 9890

ISLAMABAD 00010467 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: AMBASSADOR RYAN C. CROCKER; REASON 1.4 (g)


1. (C) Summary: Encouraging developments out of the Election
Commission of Pakistan (ECP) and from senior GOP officials
indicate that US-led international pressure may be chipping
away at the business-as-usual approach many expected from
Pakistan,s electoral machinery. Building on over one year
of USG analysis and consultations with political parties,
NGOs, election officials, and international experts, the US
is pursuing a multi-donor strategy that includes continued
diplomatic-level dialogue backed up by technical assistance
and commodities. Reftel laid out our strategy. Now is the
time to move forward. End Summary.


2. (U) Pakistan,s new Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) met
with a 15-member European Union ambassador,s delegation late
last week. At that meeting, which received extensive
coverage in both the broadcast and print national media, the
Commissioner reiterated his commitment to overseeing free and
fair parliamentary elections that will be "credible by any
standard" and within the constitutionally mandated timeframe
of November 15, 2007 to January 15, 2008.


3. (U) In his briefing for EU ambassadors, the CEC
described, in essence, all elements of the assistance program
the Election Commission had negotiated with USAID over the
last year, including computerized voter lists, transparent
ballot boxes, and Election Commission engagement with all
major political parties in the development of an Electoral
Code of Conduct.


4. (U) The computerized electoral rolls were characterized by
the CEC as a "sine qua non" for free and fair elections in
the 2007 national elections and those that follow in the
future. The old manual voter lists used in the past were
open to manipulation and could not be updated to correct
errors, add those who had reached voting age, or to remove
the names of those who had died.


5. (U) Of particular importance to the opposition parties and
local-level Election Commission officials alike was the
announcement that transparent ballot boxes would be placed in
each of the country,s polling stations. The opposition
parties do not view transparent ballot boxes as a silver
bullet that will somehow right all electoral-process wrongs,
but instead regard them as an important confidence-building
measure. Election officials, meanwhile, are breathing a sigh
of relief at the prospect of distributing lightweight plastic
boxes to polling stations instead of the ten-pound
monstrosities they had to lug around in the past. (Note:
This was mentioned as a particular concern of female election
officials. End Note.)


6. (C) Post also met with the newly appointed Minister of
Information over the weekend. He described his meeting
earlier that day with the Election Commission Secretary. At
that meeting, the Minister told the Secretary that the
government wants the ECP to be more independent and to act
with more confidence. (Note: On paper, Pakistan,s and
India,s Election Commissions have an equal degree of
independence. The difference is that India,s Chief Election
Commissioners of late have flexed their muscles and made use
of their independence thereby raising the quality of and
respect for that country,s election process. Meanwhile,
Pakistan,s CECs have traditionally been timid and behaved as
if they worked for the sitting government. End Note.) The
Minister of Information offered the Election Commission free
access to government-owned airwaves to provide public
education on voter registration and voting procedures. He

ISLAMABAD 00010467 002.2 OF 003


also encouraged the Election Commission to engage with all
political parties, including the opposition.


7. (C) Reiterating the President,s and Prime Minister,s
commitment to free and fair elections, the Information
Minister offered to serve as a conduit for exchange of views
between the US and his bosses. He said he understands the
importance the international community attaches to the
upcoming elections and said that Pakistan does not want to be
embarrassed.


8. (C) US Support for the Elections

USAID, working in close consultation over the past year with
POL, political parties, NGOs, and like-minded diplomatic
missions in Islamabad, has outlined a program to support the
electoral process, which reflects present and projected
resource envelopes, on-the-ground realities in Pakistan, and
priorities identified by those who know the present system,s
flaws best. Elements of the US program include the following:

--Computerized Electoral Rolls. As noted in para. 4, the
Election Commission has characterized computerized voter
lists as a sine qua non for free and fair elections. Without
US assistance, however, this will not get done. Although the
Election Commission has already started the process, our
technical assistance and limited computer equipment are
necessary to get the job completed by the Fall of 2007.

--Transparent Ballot Boxes. Outsiders may see these as fig
leaves that cannot adequately cover Pakistan,s other
electoral weaknesses. However, the importance civil society
and opposition parties attach to this confidence-building
measure cannot be overstated. No one is nave enough to view
transparent ballot boxes as a silver bullet, but all see them
as a necessary and much-appreciated step in the right
direction.

--Political Party Engagement. Two of the chief criticisms of
past elections have been that the government apparatus has
always mobilized to support ruling party candidates and that
the Election Commission has had a closed-door policy with
opposition parties. That the Election Commission has now
committed to working with all political parties constitutes
real progress. The UNDP will act as a public "front" in
coordinating Election Commission/political party
consultations while USAID programming will provide assistance
to the political parties to help make the exchanges as
constructive and productive as possible. (Note: This
assistance is in addition to already-existing NDI programs
funded by USAID and DRL that are helping political parties
understand how to organize campaigns, improve internal
democracy, develop messages, conduct member drives, and groom
future leaders. End Note)

--Funding levels for the USG assistance outlined above total
approximately $16 million.

--Other election-related USAID programming in 2007. The
above longer-term activities will be augmented by some
combination of election-observation support, election-worker
training, election-process assessment, and post-election
after actions totaling approximately $3 million. Decisions
on the precise mix of these activities will be made once we
get clarity on the type and levels of support that will be
provided by other donors, most notably, DfID, the EU, Canada,
Norway, Australia and UNDP.


9. (C) Pakistan,s political parties and politically
oriented NGOs also identify interference from security and
intelligence agencies as well as intimidation and violence

ISLAMABAD 00010467 003.2 OF 003


tactics used by various political parties as key issues
impeding free and fair elections in the past. Such issues,
however, do not lend themselves to development project
programming. To complement our proposed programming, these
issues will continue to be talking points for the US Embassy
and for representatives of all like-minded diplomatic
missions in Islamabad.


10. (C) Comment: The US anticipated and began planning its
support for the 2007 elections over one year ago. Ongoing
meetings with every major political party, participation in
the numerous fora where the political parties have met
collectively, combined with regular meetings with politically
active NGOs and listening to the concerns of national,
provincial and local election officials has allowed post to
understand the critical weaknesses that could impede free and
fair elections in Pakistan and to gauge our response
accordingly. We have found an unusual degree of agreement
among these diverse actors on what they believe is necessary
to improve the credibility of elections. Over the next 18
months, US programming and diplomatic dialogue will largely
go toward helping the system respond to these demands and
improving the dialogue between the Election Commission and
the political parties that depend on it to oversee quality
elections. Although some degree of back-sliding can be
expected over the coming months, the attention the Election
Commission and GOP are giving to upcoming elections this
early in the game indicates that the international
community,s message is being clearly received. We laid out
our thoughts on a comprehensive election strategy in reftel.
These recent developments are another indication that we are
on the right track in terms of timing and substance. We need
to move now. End Comment.
CROCKER