Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06IRANRPODUBAI24
2006-12-19 17:11:00
SECRET//NOFORN
Iran RPO Dubai
Cable title:  

VOTE COUNT ONGOING, POSSIBLE FRAUD CONCERNS BOTH SIDES

Tags:  PGOV IR 
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VZCZCXRO9109
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK
DE RUEHDIR #0024/01 3531711
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P R 191711Z DEC 06
FM IRAN RPO DUBAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0042
INFO RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHDIR/IRAN RPO DUBAI 0035
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDHP/DIA DHP-1 WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEHDE/AMCONSUL DUBAI 0041
RUEHAD/USDAO ABU DHABI TC
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 IRAN RPO DUBAI 000024 

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

LONDON FOR GAYLE; BAKU FOR HAUGEN
BERLIN FOR PAETZOLD; PARIS FOR WALLER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/19/2016
TAGS: PGOV IR
SUBJECT: VOTE COUNT ONGOING, POSSIBLE FRAUD CONCERNS BOTH SIDES

REF: RPO DUBAI 0021

RPO DUBAI 00000024 001.2 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: Jillian Burns, Director, Iran Regional Presence
Office, Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (d)

VOTE COUNT ONGOING, POSSIBLE FRAUD CONCERNS BOTH SIDES
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 IRAN RPO DUBAI 000024

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

LONDON FOR GAYLE; BAKU FOR HAUGEN
BERLIN FOR PAETZOLD; PARIS FOR WALLER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/19/2016
TAGS: PGOV IR
SUBJECT: VOTE COUNT ONGOING, POSSIBLE FRAUD CONCERNS BOTH SIDES

REF: RPO DUBAI 0021

RPO DUBAI 00000024 001.2 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: Jillian Burns, Director, Iran Regional Presence
Office, Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (d)

VOTE COUNT ONGOING, POSSIBLE FRAUD CONCERNS BOTH SIDES

1.(C)Summary: Vote counting is still ongoing for the two major
elections in Iran, but some provinces have reported final
results. In the Tehran Assembly of Experts competition, the
final results showed an even higher count for frontrunner
Expediency Council chairman Rafsanjani, leading a list of 16
elected members with over 1.5 million votes. Ayatollah
Mesbah-Yazdi came in sixth place, and many of his supporters
were vetted out from the campaign. According to multiple
sources, the Supreme Leader encouraged Rafsanjani to run and
promised him a clean election. What is particularly noteworthy
is this result seems indicative of an interesting switch from
the situation that contacts had been describing for months, that
the Supreme Leader saw Rafsanjani as his primary threat and that
he overestimated his ability to keep Mesbah-Yazdi boxed in.
Partial results for the Tehran municipal elections suggest that
supporters of Tehran mayor Qalibaf have fared well, possibly
gaining a majority. Ahmadinejad supporters seem likely to win
as few as two seats on the fifteen-member council. Ballots are
being counted manually in Tehran, which may account for the
delay in results. Both reformers and conservatives have
expressed concern over possible fraud or other voting
irregularities. End summary.

Supreme Leader no longer threatened by Rafsanjani?
-------------- --------------

2.(C) For months, contacts have told us that the Supreme Leader
was erroneously focusing his attention on destroying his primary
rival, who he saw to be Expediency Council chair Rafsanjani,
while at the same time overestimating his ability to contain
arch-conservative Ayatollah Mesbah-Yazdi. However, the results
of the Assembly of Experts elections would indicate that perhaps
Khamenei has had a change of view. Multiple sources say that
the Supreme Leader encouraged Rafsanjani to run and even

promised him that no one would interfere with his campaign. At
the same time, a number of Mesbah-Yazdi supporters were vetted
out of the Assembly of Experts race. Nonetheless, it is
possible the Supreme Leader was not counting on Rafsanjani
winning so decisively. In the final vote count, Rafsanjani came
in first with over 1.5 million votes, outpacing the next person
on the list by over 500,000 votes. Many observers are hailing
this as a revival for the Expediency Council chairman, who
suffered humiliating defeats in elections for the Majles and
presidency, in 2000 and 2005 respectively.

3.(S//NF) An Iranian-American, a long-term contact who travels
frequently to Iran and was there during the election, repeated
to IRPOff a similar story as in reftel about Khamenei
encouraging a reluctant Rafsanjani to run in the election. The
Amcit, who claims an acquaintanceship with one of Rafsanjani's
sons, said he heard from associates that Rafsanjani consulted
Khamenei about whether to run for the Assembly of Experts, and
Khamenei said that he should, perhaps in order to increase voter
turnout. Rafsanjani elicited a promise from Khamenei that there
would be no interference in the election from the IRGC, but this
promise was not kept, the source said. On the day after the
election, the Amcit claimed he was supposed to meet Rafsanjani's
son, but heard instead there was controversy over how Rafsanjani
had fared and the meeting did not take place. Reportedly,
Rafsanjani thought he was in first place, when he received a
call from Supreme Council for National Security head Larijani
congratulating him for his fourth place showing. According to
the Amcit, Rafsanjani then called Interior Minister Purmohammadi
and sent his son Yasser to the Interior Ministry. Later that
night, they got news he had come in first place. The Amcit
pondered why the Interior Minister, who is close to Ahmadinejad,
might have opted not to interfere with Rafsanjani.

Result delay in municipal elections due to manual counting
-------------- --------------

4.(U) In the race for Tehran's municipal council, results have
been delayed. Domestic press has reported that the interior and
electoral supervisory board of the city council disagreed over
whether votes should be counted manually or by computer. The
officials reportedly eventually agreed on manual counting, which
may be responsible for the delay in results. Partial results

RPO DUBAI 00000024 002.2 OF 002


indicate a possible majority of seats on the 15-member council
going to supporters of pragmatic conservative Tehran mayor
Qalibaf, with Ahmadinejad's supporters winning as few as two
seats, and the remainder, possibly four or five seats, going to
reformers.

Both sides fear interference or fraud
--------------

5.(U) Both conservatives and reformers have expressed concern
about fraud or other irregularities. Ahmadinejad's supporters
have called for a recount of ballots for the Tehran municipal
council, despite the fact that the final count has not been
announced. At the same time, reformers have expressed concern
about the delays in vote counting in Tehran. The reformers
claim that manual vote counting is against electoral law since
it requires ballots to be transported from the polling station,
and that counting is not being properly supervised. The
moderate reform National Trust Party called on the Interior
Ministry to investigate specific complaints, including reports
that representatives of reform candidates were barred from
polling stations, while Ahmadinejad's supporters were permitted
to distribute leaflets. There are also allegations that some
candidates' names were left off the ballot in the city of
Mashhad, and that the Tehran Friday prayers pulpit was used
inappropriately the day of the election as a campaign venue
after campaigns were supposed to have ceased. Reformist
candidates in the Tehran municipal elections have reportedly
sent a letter of protest to Majles speaker Haddad-Adel,
complaining about the post-election process.
6.(S//NF) The Amcit said he heard that prior to the elections,
Guardian Council chair Jannati tried to avoid having elections
inspectors, or at least a smaller number. According to the
contact, multiple sources said that when inspectors arrived at
elections headquarters to get their badges, they encountered
problems, and many left the headquarters frustrated and went
home.

7.(C) Comment: The Supreme Leader - Rafsanjani - Ahmadinejad
relationship remains as murky as ever. Some contacts have said
that the Supreme Leader has suffered in terms of support as a
result of standing by Ahmadinejad. How he views the landslide
win of Rafsanjani, his perennial rival, is unknown. The
Assembly of Experts as an entity will not provoke any immediate
change to Iran's political scene, but it will be interesting to
watch how or if Rafsanjani asserts himself politically in the
coming weeks, bolstered by his big win. Several contacts, as
well as numerous press reports have termed this moment a
"turning point" in Ahmadinejad's fate as a politician.
Although Rafsanjani's win and the partial municipal council
results suggest a political setback for Ahmadinejad, it is too
early to predict whether this apparent downturn in his political
fortunes is permanent or whether he can regroup.


8.(C) Comment con't: Allegations of fraud or other electoral
violations appear increasingly serious as the vote count delay
continues. However, as with the 2005 presidential election,
there will likely never be a complete public accounting for the
allegations. Nonetheless, the allegations will continue to
provide rhetorical fodder for politicians from all sides.
Presumably, Ahmadinejad and his government would have been the
best placed to carry out vote manipulation, which makes his
relative defeat even more significant.
BURNS