Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06IRANRPODUBAI11
2006-11-06 14:50:00
SECRET
Iran RPO Dubai
Cable title:  

ASSEMBLY OF EXPERTS ELECTION -- HARBINGER OF FUTURE

Tags:  IR PGOV 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO0699
PP RUEHDIR
DE RUEWCSF #3839 3101436
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
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S E C R E T SVC SECTION 01 OF 02 IRAN RPO DUBAI 000011

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MESSAGE REJECTED - CONTAINS UNRECOGNIZED ORIGINATOR
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INFO RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHDIR/IRAN RPO DUBAI
RHEFDHP/DIA DHP-1 WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUEHDE/AMCONSUL DUBAI
RUEHAD/USDAO ABU DHABI TC
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S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 IRAN RPO DUBAI 000011 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/6/2016
TAGS: IR PGOV
SUBJECT: ASSEMBLY OF EXPERTS ELECTION -- HARBINGER OF FUTURE
CHANGES?

REF: A. DUBAI 1217, B. RPO DUBAI 0008

RPO DUBAI 00000011 001.3 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: JILLIAN BURNS, DIRECTOR, IRAN REGIONAL PRESENCE
OFFICE, DEPARTMENT OF STATE.
REASON: 1.4 (D)
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 IRAN RPO DUBAI 000011

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/6/2016
TAGS: IR PGOV
SUBJECT: ASSEMBLY OF EXPERTS ELECTION -- HARBINGER OF FUTURE
CHANGES?

REF: A. DUBAI 1217, B. RPO DUBAI 0008

RPO DUBAI 00000011 001.3 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: JILLIAN BURNS, DIRECTOR, IRAN REGIONAL PRESENCE
OFFICE, DEPARTMENT OF STATE.
REASON: 1.4 (D)

1.(C) SUMMARY: ELECTIONS WILL BE HELD ON DECEMBER 15 FOR THE
ASSEMBLY OF EXPERTS, THE 86-MEMBER CLERICAL BODY THAT ELECTS AND
NOMINALLY SUPERVISES THE SUPREME LEADER. SEVERAL IRPO CONTACTS
HAVE PREDICTED LOW VOTER TURNOUT, NOTING THAT THE ELECTION WILL
BRING NO IMMEDIATE CHANGES, AND CITIZENS HAVE LITTLE INCENTIVE
TO VOTE. OTHERS SAY THE ASSEMBLY OF EXPERTS ELECTION HAS THE
POTENTIAL OF IMPACTING FUTURE POWER ALIGNMENTS IN THE IRANIAN
REGIME. THEY NOTE THAT THE ELECTIONS WILL REFLECT THE RESULTS OF
A POWER STRUGGLE BETWEEN AYATOLLAH MESBAH-YAZDI, THE
ARCH-CONSERVATIVE SPIRITUAL ADVISOR OF AHMADINEJAD, AND
EXPEDIENCY COUNCIL CHAIRMAN ALI AKBAR RAFSANJANI, WHO IS ALSO
CURRENTLY THE DEPUTY SPEAKER OF THE ASSEMBLY. ELECTION COVERAGE
IN THE IRANIAN PRESS LARGELY CENTERS ON CANDIDATE LISTS, AND THE
ATTEMPTED USE, IN AT LEAST ONE CASE, OF THE RELIGIOUS
QUALIFICATION EXAM TO BAR A REFORMIST CANDIDACY. ONE CHALLENGE
FOR THE US WILL BE HOW TO FRAME OUR PUBLIC STATEMENTS ABOUT THE
ELECTION OF THIS CONTROVERSIAL BODY. END SUMMARY.

2.(U) ON DECEMBER 15, ELECTIONS FOR THE ASSEMBLY OF EXPERTS --
THE CLERICAL BODY THAT ELECTS AND NOMINALLY SUPERVISES THE
SUPREME LEADER -- WILL BE HELD. (NOTE: WHILE THE ASSEMBLY OF
EXPERTS IS CONSTITUTIONALLY AUTHORIZED TO ELECT, SUPERVISE AND
EVEN REPLACE THE SUPREME LEADERS, THE SUPREME LEADERS POWER AND
INFLUENCE GREATLY CONSTRAINS THE SUPERVISORY ROLE.) THE
ASSEMBLY IS AN 86-MEMBER BODY ELECTED ONCE EVERY EIGHT YEARS IN
NATIONWIDE POLLS. IT MEETS TWICE A YEAR IN CLOSED SESSIONS.
492 CANDIDATES REGISTERED FOR THE ELECTIONS, INCLUDING 13 WOMEN.
(NOTE: INITIAL PRESS REPORTS INDICATED THAT 495 CANDIDATES
REGISTERED, BUT THREE REPORTEDLY REGISTERED TWICE, MAKING THE
ACTUAL NUMBER OF CANDIDATES 492. ENDNOTE.). CANDIDATES MUST
PASS GUARDIAN COUNCIL VETTING, AND EACH MUST BE A QUALIFIED
MUJTAHED, SOMEONE WITH THE RELIGIOUS QUALIFICATIONS TO INTERPRET
ISLAMIC LAW AND ISSUE RELIGIOUS DECREES.

3.(U) ACCORDING TO IRANIAN PRESS REPORTS, 204 CANDIDATES WERE
REQUIRED TO TAKE A RELIGIOUS QUALIFICATIONS EXAM, OF WHICH 37

REFUSED, INCLUDING FOUR SITTING MEMBERS OF THE ASSEMBLY.
REFORMIST CLERIC AND SENIOR MEMBER OF THE MILITANT CLERICS
SOCIETY MAJID ANSARI WAS ONE OF THE FOUR SITTING MEMBERS WHO
REFUSED TO TAKE THE EXAM, AND HIS CASE RECEIVED PARTICULAR PRESS
ATTENTION BECAUSE OF CLAIMS THAT THE GUARDIAN COUNCIL WAS USING
THE RELIGIOUS QUALIFICATION REQUIREMENT TO BAR REFORMISTS FROM
COMPETING. ONE PRESS REPORT LATER CITED AN "INFORMED SOURCE" AS
SAYING THAT ANSARI WOULD BE EXEMPTED FROM HAVING TO TAKE THE
EXAM, SINCE HE HAD PREVIOUSLY PASSED IT. GUARDIAN COUNCIL
VETTING WILL TAKE PLACE FROM OCTOBER 15 TO NOVEMBER 15.
CANDIDATES WHO PASS THE VETTING PROCESS WILL THEN HAVE FROM
NOVEMBER 30 TO DECEMBER 15 TO CAMPAIGN.

WILL WOMEN CANDIDATES BE ALLOWED?
--------------

4.(U) NO WOMEN CURRENTLY SIT ON THE ASSEMBLY, AND WOMEN WHO
ATTEMPTED TO RUN IN THE LAST ASSEMBLY ELECTION WERE BARRED FROM
COMPETING. IN RECENT MONTHS, THERE HAS BEEN DEBATE INSIDE THE
COUNTRY ABOUT WHETHER WOMEN WILL BE PERMITTED TO COMPETE THIS
YEAR. SEVERAL RELIGIOUS LEADERS, INCLUDING HARD-LINE CLERIC AND
CANDIDATE AYATOLLAH MOHAMMED TAQI MESBAH-YAZDI, GAVE QUALIFIED
SUPPORT FOR THE IDEA OF WOMEN'S CANDIDACIES, SAYING THAT WOMEN
WHO HAD ATTAINED THE REQUISITE LEVEL OF RELIGIOUS LEARNING (I.E.
QUALIFIED MUJTAHEDS) SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO COMPETE. SUCH A
STATEMENT ALLOWS FOR THE APPEARANCE OF OPENNESS, BUT IN REALITY
THERE ARE FEW FEMALE MUJTAHEDS. ACCORDING TO DOMESTIC PRESS,
TWO WOMEN CANDIDATES TOOK THE RELIGIOUS QUALIFICATIONS EXAM.

POWER STRUGGLE FOR ASSEMBLY AND POSSIBLY SUPREME LEADERSHIP
-------------- --------------

5.(S) THERE IS REPORTEDLY A POWER STRUGGLE BREWING FOR THE
FUTURE LEADERSHIP OF THE ASSEMBLY BETWEEN HARD-LINE CLERIC
AYATOLLAH MESBAH-YAZDI AND EXPEDIENCY COUNCIL CHAIRMAN ALI AKBAR
RAFSANJANI. MESBAH-YAZDI, WHO IS THE SPIRITUAL ADVISOR OF
PRESIDENT AHMADINEJAD, REGISTERED FOR THE ELECTION FOLLOWING
MONTHS OF SPECULATION THAT HE WOULD ATTEMPT TO GAIN CONTROL OF
THE BODY. HE IS SUPPORTED LARGELY BY HARD-LINERS AND THOSE
AFFILIATED WITH AHMADINEJAD. RAFSANJANI, WHO IS ALSO CURRENTLY
THE DEPUTY SPEAKER OF THE ASSEMBLY OF EXPERTS, SIGNED UP FOR THE
ELECTION ON THE LAST DAY OF REGISTRATION. RAFSANJANI IS MOSTLY
SUPPORTED BY TRADITIONAL AND MODERATE CONSERVATIVES, AS WELL AS
SOME REFORMISTS, WHO ARE IN THE MINORITY AMONG THE CANDIDATES
FOR THE ASSEMBLY. NASSER HADIAN, AN IRANIAN POLITICAL ANALYST,
PREDICTED THAT IF THE POLITICAL MAKE-UP OF THE ASSEMBLY REMAINS
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RPO DUBAI 00000011 002.3 OF 002


ESSENTIALLY THE SAME, RAFSANJANI WOULD LIKELY BECOME SUPREME
LEADER WERE KHAMENEI TO BECOME INCAPABLE OF CARRYING OUT THE
OFFICE. IF MESBAH-YAZDI AND HIS SUPPORTERS WERE TO GAIN A
MAJORITY IN THE ASSEMBLY, THE HARD-LINE CLERIC MAY THEN POSITION
HIMSELF TO SUCCEED KHAMENEI AS SUPREME LEADER.

6.(C) THE CURRENT SPEAKER OF THE ASSEMBLY, AYATOLLAH ALI
MESHKINI, REGISTERED FOR THE DECEMBER ELECTIONS, DESPITE RUMORS
OF HIS FAILING HEALTH. IT IS VIRTUALLY CERTAIN THAT MESHKINI
WILL BE RE-ELECTED AND MAINTAIN THE LEADERSHIP OF THE BODY, BUT
BECAUSE OF HIS HEALTH CONCERNS THERE IS PUBLIC SPECULATION THAT
HE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SERVE ANOTHER FULL 8-YEAR TERM.
MESBAH-YAZDI AND RAFSANJANI ARE COMPETING FOR THE POSITION OF
ASSEMBLY SPEAKER AFTER MESHKINI EVENTUALLY VACATES THE POST,
WHICH WOULD GIVE EITHER MAN THE ABILITY TO INFLUENCE THE
SELECTION OF THE NEXT SUPREME LEADER IN HIS FAVOR.

WILL PEOPLE VOTE?
--------------

7.(C) OBSERVERS AND ANALYSTS, INCLUDING SEVERAL IRPO
INTERLOCUTERS, PREDICT LOW VOTER TURNOUT, DESPITE THE CONCURRENT
MUNICIPAL AND MAJLES BY-ELECTIONS. THE ASSEMBLY MEETS ONLY
TWICE A YEAR; ITS ACTIVITIES ARE NOT MADE PUBLIC AND APPEAR TO
HAVE MINIMAL EFFECT ON THE DAILY LIVES OF IRANIANS, LEAVING THEM
LITTLE INCENTIVE TO VOTE. EVEN IN THE EUPHORIA FOLLOWING
PRESIDENT MOHAMMAD KHATAMI'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION VICTORY OF
1997 WHICH FEATURED WELL OVER 80 PERCENT VOTER TURNOUT, THE 1998
ASSEMBLY OF EXPERTS ELECTION ONLY ELICITED A 46 PERCENT VOTER
TURNOUT, AND REGISTERED A PALTRY 37 PERCENT TURNOUT IN 1990.

8.(C) COMMENT: THIS ELECTION WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH TO
SEE IF RAFSANJANI AND REFORMERS COALESCE TO COUNTER MESBAH-YAZDI
IN ANY MEANINGFUL WAY OR WHETHER THERE IS IN FACT A REAL SUPPORT
GROUP FOR MESBAH-YAZDI. SEPARATELY, ONE CHALLENGE TO THE US IS
HOW TO FRAME OUR PUBLIC STATEMENTS ABOUT THIS ELECTION. ON THE
ONE HAND, WE ALWAYS CALL FOR FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS, AND IN THE
CASE OF IRAN, SPEAK OUT AGAINST THE VETTING OF CANDIDATES BY THE
GUARDIAN COUNCIL. ON THE OTHER HAND, WE DO NOT SUPPORT THE
ENTITY WHICH IS BEING ELECTED, A BODY LIMITED TO CLERICS WHOSE
MAIN RESPONSIBILITY IS TO SELECT THE SUPREME LEADER. WE
FREQUENTLY CITE AS A WEAKNESS OF THE IRANIAN SYSTEM THE FACT
THAT ITS LEADER IS NOT DIRECTLY ELECTED BY THE POPULATION. THIS
YEAR THE ELECTION IS BEING HELD CONCURRENTLY WITH THE MUNICIPAL
AND MAJLES BY-ELECTIONS, WHICH MEANS THAT WE SHOULD MAKE A
BLANKET STATEMENT FOR FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS. HOWEVER, IF WE
DO NOT COMMENT SPECIFICALLY ON THE ASSEMBLY OF EXPERTS, WE GIVE
THIS BODY IMPLICIT APPROVAL. (IT MAY BE USEFUL TO TRY TO FIND
OUT HOW THE US COMMENTED ON THESE ELECTIONS EIGHT YEARS AGO.)
WHILE POLITICAL LEADERS IN SOME DEMOCRATIC COUNTRIES ARE NOT
DIRECTLY ELECTED, ONE MAJOR DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE INTERMEDIARY
BODY IN IRAN - ALTHOUGH DIRECTLY ELECTED - IS RESTRICTED TO
SENIOR CLERICS. (NOTE: REF A MENTIONS AN UNSUCCESSFUL ATTEMPT
WITHIN THE ASSEMBLY OF EXPERTS THIS YEAR TO EXPAND MEMBERSHIP
BEYOND CLERICS.) IN OUR STATEMENTS WE SHOULD QUESTION THE
RATIONALE FOR RESTRICTING THIS POWER TO CLERICS AND ASK WHY THE
GOVERNMENT AVOIDS GIVING THIS POWER DIRECTLY TO THE PEOPLE.
BURNS
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