SURPRISING ELECTORAL SUCCESS FOR HONG KONG'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L HONG KONG 004704

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EAP AND EAP/CM
NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/2031
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SOCI CH HK
SUBJECT: SURPRISING ELECTORAL SUCCESS FOR HONG KONG'S
DEMOCRATS

REF: A. HONG KONG 4690


B. HONG KONG 4691

Classified By: E/P Section Chief Laurent Charbonnet; Reasons 1.4 (b, d)


1. (C) Summary: On December 10, pro-democracy candidates for
Hong Kong's Chief Executive Election Committee (EC),which
will select the next Chief Executive in March 2007, captured
approximately 134 seats on the 800-member EC, potentially
more than enough to enable Alan Leong, the pan-democratic
candidate, to contest the election. The democrats did
especially well in some of the professional subsectors, where
their middle-class, professional supporters were most
numerous and motivated. According to political commentator
Allen Lee, incumbent Chief Executive Donald Tsang now will
face a "real" opponent in the March election, a prospect that
neither he nor the central government in Beijing had
expected. End Summary.

Surprising Result
--------------


2. (SBU) On December 10, approximately 220,000 Hong Kong
voters were eligible to cast ballots for members of the
800-person EC, which will nominate candidates for and select
the next Chief Executive in March 2007 (refs). Supporters of
the pan-democratic candidate, Civic Party legislator Alan
Leong, had hoped to reach the threshold of 100 EC seats
necessary to contest the March election. In a surprisingly
strong performance, the pan-democrats won 134 seats
(including an estimated twenty members of Legco who have "ex
officio" seats on the EC). Prior to the vote, most observers
believed the democrats had a "good chance" of winning 100,
but none had suggested they would do this well.


3. (SBU) Approximately 56,000 of the 220,000 registered and
eligible voters cast votes. The rate of turnout for the
election was just 27 percent, which while low compares
favorably to the 19.5 percent recorded in July 2000.
Overall, the pan-democrats fielded candidates in 164 races.
Of this number, 27 were for district council slots for which
the democrats had little if any expectation of success; in
fact they did not win any of those contests. In the other
137 races that they contested, however, the democrats won
114, or 83 percent, a remarkable success rate.


4. (C) The democrats did especially well in some of the
professional subsectors of the Second Sector. In the
accountancy, education, engineering, health services, higher
education, information technology, and legal subsectors, the
pan-democrats won all 81 seats that they contested. They
also captured 31 of the 40 seats in the social welfare
subsector of the Third Sector; prior to the election, Legco
social welfare representative Fernando Cheung of the Civic
Party told us he hoped the pan-democrats would win "more than
twenty." Finally, the democrats won one seat each in the
architecture and medical subsectors.

What Does It Mean?
--------------


5. (C) Local NPC delegate and political commentator Allen
Lee, who before the election predicted that the pan-democrats
would capture only 80-90 EC seats, told us on December 11
that he was "very surprised" at the outcome: Alan Leong was
now a "real candidate." Lee attributed the results to
skillful selection by the democrats of strong candidates in
subsectors where their middle-class, professional supporters
were most plentiful and highly motivated. These supporters,
said Lee, strongly want to see a contested Chief Executive
(CE) election as well as implementation of universal suffrage
as soon as possible. With Leong now apparently able to force
incumbent CE Donald Tsang to debate these and other issues,
Lee predicted that Tsang now would have to answer the
difficult questions that he otherwise could avoid. Lee
opined that the central government in Beijing also would be
unhappy with yesterday's outcome, and with the prospect of a
contested election, but that, like CE Tsang, they would "have
to handle it." Observers in Hong Kong will be watching
closely for evidence that Beijing's concerns are reflected in
increased pressure on pro-democracy electors to not nominate
Leong.
Cunningham