LOW TURNOUT EXPECTED FOR JULY 1 MARCH DESPITE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HONG KONG 002709

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, EAP/CM
NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/30/2031
TAGS: PHUM PINR PGOV PREL HK CH
SUBJECT: LOW TURNOUT EXPECTED FOR JULY 1 MARCH DESPITE
ANSON CHAN'S PARTICIPATION

REF: A. 03 HONG KONG 2489


B. 04 HONG KONG 4029

C. 05 HONG KONG 5374

D. HONG KONG 2638

E. HONG KONG 2003

F. 05 HONG KONG 3167

Classified By: E/P Section Chief Simon Schuchat; Reasons 1.4 (b, d)


1. (C) Summary: Organizers expect only 30,000 to 40,000
people to participate in this year's July 1 pro-democracy
march in Hong Kong, despite the high-profile participation of
popular former Chief Secretary Anson Chan. Nevertheless, the
organizers hope that by placing less emphasis on other social
issues, as they did last year, and focusing on the core theme
of universal suffrage, turnout will be higher than last
year's disappointing 21,000. Whatever the turnout, it will
be far below 2003's half a million marchers or the 300,000 of

2004. People's aspirations for democracy have not waned, but
average Hong Kongers, pragmatic as always, may feel some
sense of futility about democratization following last year's
failure to achieve either gradual constitutional reform of
the electoral system or a timetable for the introduction of
universal suffrage. Other factors, such as a robust economy,
a popular Chief Executive, and the lack of an immediate
issue, also may encourage a lower turnout. A pro-Beijing
parade and carnival, where organizers are offering a free
seafood lunch and other benefits, could attract more people
than the pro-democracy march. End Summary.

Back to Basics
--------------


2. (C) After a disappointing turnout of only 21,000 people at
last year's pro-democracy July 1 rally, in which organizers
tried to increase attendance by promoting a diffuse set of
social issues ranging from gay and lesbian rights to a
minimum wage, this year the same organizers are attempting to
return the rally's focus to the core theme of universal
suffrage. Some democracy activists were uncomfortable with
last year's diverse approach, which they criticized as more
like a "carnival" than a solemn march for universal suffrage.
While organizers have once again invited a broad range of
organizations and activists to participate -- the catch-all
slogan for this year's march will be "A New Hong Kong, With
Equality and Justice" -- they are hoping that those who are
primarily interested in promoting democracy will return in
force this year. Civil Human Rights Front (CHRF) member and
march organizer Jackie Hung told us on June 29 that she
expects 30,000 to 40,000 people to participate, though many
independent observers believe the total will be closer to
20,000, especially given the forecast for scattered
thunderstorms on July 1.


3. (SBU) Whatever the turnout, it seems certain to be far
below the 500,000-plus of 2003 or the 300,000 of 2004. In
2003, a volatile mix of economic downturn, SARS, and Article
23 national security legislation stoked the anger that
precipitated a massive and unexpected turnout for the rally
(ref a). In 2004, continuing frustration with Tung's
ineffective governance and the National People's Congress
Standing Committee's interpretation that ruled out universal
suffrage for the 2007 and 2008 elections led to
higher-than-expected participation (ref b). Those events
have now given way to a feel-good atmosphere in Hong Kong
where the economy is buoyant and the Chief Executive's public
approval rating is 63 percent -- factors not conducive to
mobilizing mass protest marches.

4. (C) Furthermore, the pro-democracy movement is currently
at a low ebb following its failure last year to secure either
constitutional reform of the electoral system or a timetable
for the introduction of universal suffrage. An editorial in
the "South China Morning Post" on June 28 captured the mood
among many when it lamented that "As the next possible
opportunity to implement universal suffrage is six years
away, it is hardly surprising that a feeling of remoteness,
indifference and futility has eroded the 'can-do' spirit of
July 1." Nevertheless, Hong Kongers have shown repeatedly
that they will take to the streets in large numbers to push
for universal suffrage if there is an immediate and
convincing cause. The surprisingly large turnout (about
100,000) for a pro-democracy rally in December 2005 (ref c),
just as the Legislative Council was preparing to vote on the
Government's plan for electoral reform, was a clear
demonstration that popular desire for democracy is alive and
well.


HONG KONG 00002709 002 OF 003


A Smorgasbord of July 1 Events
--------------


5. (SBU) July 1 events begin with a formal flag raising
ceremony at 8:00 am at the Wanchai waterfront, with admission
by invitation only. Next, there will be a pro-Beijing
"patriotic" parade from the Hong Kong Stadium to the Southorn
Playground in Wanchai, followed by a carnival at the
playground, starting at 10:30 am. Finally, the pro-democracy
march from Victoria Park to the Central Government Offices
will start at 3:00 pm. The patriotic parade and carnival,
organized by the Federation of Trade Unions and the Chinese
General Chamber of Commerce, are expected to attract about
30,000 people, possibly exceeding the turnout for the
pro-democracy march. Soldiers from the People's Liberation
Army will reportedly march in the parade, which organizers
hope will help boost the turnout. Organizers are also
offering a free seafood lunch and discount tours of Hong Kong
landmarks as an enticement for people to attend the parade
and carnival. The Bank of China (Hong Kong) is reportedly
giving its staff HK$100 (US$13) in cash and gifts if they
attend the parade. Feeling the competition, organizers of
the pro-democracy march have emphasized that there is no
reason why people can't attend the parade in the morning, eat
a free lunch, and then march for democracy in the afternoon.


The Anson Chan Show
--------------


6. (C) Organizers of the march are publicly welcoming former
Chief Secretary Anson Chan's high profile announcement one
week in advance that she will participate (ref d),though
some worry privately that she may hijack the rally to advance
her own political ambitions. Chan's decision to march, and
her calls for Hong Kongers to join her have been front page
news in Hong Kong all week. Chan fueled the press frenzy by
announcing on June 27 that she would talk to the media every
day in the run-up to the rally. Speaking on a radio show on
June 28, Chan advised Chief Executive Donald Tsang to "show
more courage in pushing for greater democracy." She also
blamed Beijing for the lack of progress, saying "In the early
stage of reunification, the central government had indeed
implemented the promises made under the Basic Law. But there
have been a number of impediments in recent years, resulting
in a loss of people's confidence in the central government."
Political commentator Chris Yeung wrote in the South China
Morning Post on June 28 that Chan is actually taking a huge
political risk by being so out-front in calling for Hong
Kongers to march on July 1. Yeung wrote, "A lackluster
turnout on Saturday could deal a severe blow to Mrs. Chan's
popularity and the democratic movement." Despite the media's
attention on Chan, organizers are downplaying her
significance for the rally. Jackie Hung predicted to us that
Chan's participation was unlikely to significantly affect the
turnout, though she admitted that it has increased the
public's interest in the rally. A survey published by the
independent "Ming Pao" newspaper on June 30 found that 6.3
percent of likely participants in the pro-democracy rally
were doing so due to Chan's participation.

Chinese Dissidents to March
--------------


7. (C) Chinese dissident scholar Yu Jie will reportedly march
as well. Yu, who met with President Bush at the White House
in May, arrived in Hong Kong on June 28 from Beijing and had
no problems getting through Hong Kong immigration despite
media reports last month that he was banned from entering
Hong Kong (ref e). Yu was accompanied by fellow dissident
Zhang Qianjin, who said that the pair had received a phone
call before leaving Beijing instructing them to keep a low
profile in Hong Kong. Yu said he would march wearing a
t-shirt with a photo of jailed mainland civil rights activist
Chen Guangcheng. While in Hong Kong, Yu also plans to meet
with Szeto Wah, Chairman of the Hong Kong Alliance in Support
of Patriotic Democratic Movements in China, a group labeled
"subversive" by Beijing, and Reverend Chu Yiu-ming, a
democracy activist.

Catholic Turnout
--------------


8. (C) Catholics may return in larger numbers this year
following an apparent boycott last year due to the selection
of a homosexual rights group to lead the march. In 2005,
Christian groups objected to the participation of gay rights

HONG KONG 00002709 003 OF 003


activists and did not actively mobilize their members as they
had in previous rallies (ref f). Gay rights groups will not
lead this year (though they will participate) and the issue
has not been mentioned in the press. Hung said that Cardinal
Zen, who played a key role in mobilizing extensive Catholic
participation in the 2003 and 2004 marches, would lead a
prayer service in Victoria Park prior to the march as he has
in past years. In 2005, Zen said publicly that he would not
urge Catholics to march -- a statement that seemed almost
designed to discourage participation. Zen has remained
silent this year, neither encouraging nor discouraging
participation.
Cunningham