Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06HONGKONG219
2006-05-23 06:57:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Consulate Hong Kong
Cable title:
CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM HALF A YEAR LATER: WHAT
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 05 HONG KONG 00219
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DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, EAP/CM
NSC FOR WILDER
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/23/2031
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON PINR HK CH
SUBJECT: CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM HALF A YEAR LATER: WHAT
HAPPENED? WHAT'S NEXT?
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* Missing Section 002 *
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HONG KONG 00000219 003 OF 005
and both parties likely would have lobbied strongly against
any additional concessions to the democrats. (Interestingly,
some younger, non-Legco members of the Democratic Party
wanted to support the Government proposal, since they
believed it would have enhanced their own chances to win
Legco seats in the future. But the party leadership
concluded from the outset that their political influence
would be diluted under the Tsang proposal.) From the
so-called pro-Government parties' point of view, and, many
thought, from Beijing's point of view, it was all the same,
whether the proposal passed, or whether the status quo was
unchanged. (Some here believe, however, that at least some
senior leaders in Beijing were unhappy with the proposal,s
failure, and wanted to see some limited movement.) But only
the Tsang administration had prestige or power at stake in
the success of the proposal.
10. (C) The large turnout at the December 4 march was
important, and the united appearance of the pro-democracy
legislators was probably even more important in cementing
their commitment. The unexpected participation of former
Chief Secretary Anson Chan, who had not previously identified
herself with pro-democracy efforts, transformed the dynamic,
placing at the movement's head a figure as clearly
"mainstream" and popular as the CE himself. This had a
powerful impact on public opinion and provided pro-democracy
legislators with broad political cover.
Counting the votes
--------------
11. (C) The Government needed to secure six votes in addition
to the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of Hong Kong
(DAB) and Liberal Party (LP) members that Beijing presumably
told to line up behind Tsang. Those votes existed in a block
of six pro-democracy but independent Legco members, where
Tsang focused all his lobbying effort. To prevail, the
SIPDIS
Democrats merely needed to hold at least one of them. The
pro-democracy independents, who had been elected by tying
themselves to the slogan of democracy, feared betraying their
constituents. If they stayed in opposition to Tsang, they
could be seen as standing for a simple, clear principle:
universal suffrage, as soon as possible. But Tsang worked
hard to win them over to his incrementalist approach, arguing
that defeat of a proposal that Beijing accepted would be a
serious setback to democracy in Hong Kong. Before the vote,
the mainstream Democrats were keeping watch on the waverers,
ready to intervene at the slightest sign of weakness.
12. (C) Most of our sources agree that Tsang had long
believed he would get the six additional votes, and in fact
had convinced 5 of the 6 to support him. One of them,
pro-democracy Tsang confidante Albert "Taipan" Cheng, on the
eve of December 4 pro-democracy march, published a thinly
veiled protest at pressure from within the democracy movement
to maintain a united opposition to the plan.
Then-independent, now Civic Party member, Mandy Tam, who
represents the accountancy functional constituency, was the
sixth vote and seemed just before the vote to be moving to
the Tsang side. But at the last minute she withdrew from
negotiations with the Government after an emotional meeting
with a close Democratic colleague. Tam has confirmed this to
us, adding that the Government seems to blame her above all
others for the proposal's defeat. When it became clear that
her vote would defeat the government, the other five moved
back into opposition so as not be charged with betraying
their democratic principles.
Who won, who lost?
--------------
13. (C) Immediately after the December 21 failure of the
Government's plan (ref a),the conventional wisdom was that
Chief Executive (CE) Donald Tsang had been hurt, and that the
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* Missing Section 004 *
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***********************
* Missing Section 005 *
***********************
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, EAP/CM
NSC FOR WILDER
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/23/2031
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON PINR HK CH
SUBJECT: CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM HALF A YEAR LATER: WHAT
HAPPENED? WHAT'S NEXT?
***********************
* Missing Section 001 *
***********************
***********************
* Missing Section 002 *
***********************
HONG KONG 00000219 003 OF 005
and both parties likely would have lobbied strongly against
any additional concessions to the democrats. (Interestingly,
some younger, non-Legco members of the Democratic Party
wanted to support the Government proposal, since they
believed it would have enhanced their own chances to win
Legco seats in the future. But the party leadership
concluded from the outset that their political influence
would be diluted under the Tsang proposal.) From the
so-called pro-Government parties' point of view, and, many
thought, from Beijing's point of view, it was all the same,
whether the proposal passed, or whether the status quo was
unchanged. (Some here believe, however, that at least some
senior leaders in Beijing were unhappy with the proposal,s
failure, and wanted to see some limited movement.) But only
the Tsang administration had prestige or power at stake in
the success of the proposal.
10. (C) The large turnout at the December 4 march was
important, and the united appearance of the pro-democracy
legislators was probably even more important in cementing
their commitment. The unexpected participation of former
Chief Secretary Anson Chan, who had not previously identified
herself with pro-democracy efforts, transformed the dynamic,
placing at the movement's head a figure as clearly
"mainstream" and popular as the CE himself. This had a
powerful impact on public opinion and provided pro-democracy
legislators with broad political cover.
Counting the votes
--------------
11. (C) The Government needed to secure six votes in addition
to the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of Hong Kong
(DAB) and Liberal Party (LP) members that Beijing presumably
told to line up behind Tsang. Those votes existed in a block
of six pro-democracy but independent Legco members, where
Tsang focused all his lobbying effort. To prevail, the
SIPDIS
Democrats merely needed to hold at least one of them. The
pro-democracy independents, who had been elected by tying
themselves to the slogan of democracy, feared betraying their
constituents. If they stayed in opposition to Tsang, they
could be seen as standing for a simple, clear principle:
universal suffrage, as soon as possible. But Tsang worked
hard to win them over to his incrementalist approach, arguing
that defeat of a proposal that Beijing accepted would be a
serious setback to democracy in Hong Kong. Before the vote,
the mainstream Democrats were keeping watch on the waverers,
ready to intervene at the slightest sign of weakness.
12. (C) Most of our sources agree that Tsang had long
believed he would get the six additional votes, and in fact
had convinced 5 of the 6 to support him. One of them,
pro-democracy Tsang confidante Albert "Taipan" Cheng, on the
eve of December 4 pro-democracy march, published a thinly
veiled protest at pressure from within the democracy movement
to maintain a united opposition to the plan.
Then-independent, now Civic Party member, Mandy Tam, who
represents the accountancy functional constituency, was the
sixth vote and seemed just before the vote to be moving to
the Tsang side. But at the last minute she withdrew from
negotiations with the Government after an emotional meeting
with a close Democratic colleague. Tam has confirmed this to
us, adding that the Government seems to blame her above all
others for the proposal's defeat. When it became clear that
her vote would defeat the government, the other five moved
back into opposition so as not be charged with betraying
their democratic principles.
Who won, who lost?
--------------
13. (C) Immediately after the December 21 failure of the
Government's plan (ref a),the conventional wisdom was that
Chief Executive (CE) Donald Tsang had been hurt, and that the
***********************
* Missing Section 004 *
***********************
***********************
* Missing Section 005 *
***********************