Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06HOCHIMINHCITY87
2006-01-25 08:58:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Consulate Ho Chi Minh City
Cable title:  

ANALYSIS OF PROVINCIAL PARTY CONGRESSES IN CENTRAL AND

Tags:  PGOV PINR PREL SOCI KIRF PHUM VM DPOL 
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250858Z Jan 06

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 ------------------851D5E 250907Z /38 
FM AMCONSUL HO CHI MINH CITY
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 0327
INFO ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE
AMEMBASSY HANOI 
AMCONSUL HO CHI MINH CITY
UNCLAS HO CHI MINH CITY 000087 

SIPDIS


SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL SOCI KIRF PHUM VM DPOL
SUBJECT: ANALYSIS OF PROVINCIAL PARTY CONGRESSES IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VIETNAM

REF: HCMC 29

UNCLAS HO CHI MINH CITY 000087

SIPDIS


SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL SOCI KIRF PHUM VM DPOL
SUBJECT: ANALYSIS OF PROVINCIAL PARTY CONGRESSES IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VIETNAM

REF: HCMC 29


1. (SBU) Summary: In late 2005, provincial Communist Party
Committees in southern and central Vietnam conducted their Party
Congresses to select the new crop of provincial leaders for the
2006-2010 term. The results may offer some indication of the
thinking and direction of the Party as it prepares for the
national 10th Party Congress this April. Stability, local roots
and longevity were watchwords of the congresses, with only 23 of
96 leadership posts changing. (There may be additional changes
in the offing, particularly in HCMC, as key provincial leaders
get tapped for central-level Party and government posts during
the 10th Party Congress.) Functionaries linked to security,
ideology and organizational affairs appeared to gain, especially
in provinces hit by corruption scandals. Notable personnel
changes in the Central Highlands include the removal of the
ultra-hardline Party Secretary of Dak Lak Province and the
promotion to a key central-level Party slot of the Party
Secretary of Gia Lai Province. The current cohort is the last

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generation of provincial Party leaders with common formative
roots in the "American War." End Summary.

Stability, Parochialism and Longevity
--------------


2. (SBU) In November and December 2005, 33 provinces in southern
and central Vietnam held Party Congresses to select leaders for
the 2006-2010 term, review and set local policy and development
goals, and provide input to the Party in preparation for the
national 10th Party Congress, slated for the second quarter of

2006. Excluding HCMC, only eight of 32 provincial Party
Secretary positions and 15 of 64 provincial Deputy Secretary

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positions changed. (The eight are: Can Tho, Long An, Tien
Giang, An Giang, Vinh Long, Binh Thuan, Dak Lak, and Gia Lai.)
The Party Secretaries are required to be members of the Central
Committee. Those newly elected Secretaries, if not presently
members of the Party's Central Committee, must be selected at
the 10th National Party Congress or face replacement.


3. (SBU) Our contacts tell us that the proposal to merge of the

positions of Party General Secretary and State President was not
discussed at the provincial Party Congresses. This, they
explain, likely would preclude the Party from taking such a step
at the 10th Party Congress as the Party normally would vet a
major policy change at lower levels before taking it up at the
national level. In contrast, the proposal to allow Party
members to participate in private business -- another possible
reform -- apparently was debated at the provincial Party
Congresses.


4. (SBU) The provinces largely appear to be ignoring the January
2002 Politburo decree encouraging the transfer of party cadre
between provinces and the Central Government and Party. With
two exceptions, all the Party Secretaries and the Deputies rose
through their local party apparatuses to take the top slots in
their provinces. Nguyen Tuan Khanh, former Secretary of the Gia
Lai Province Party Committee, was appointed Deputy Chief of the
Central Commission on Home Security, replacing Nguyen Tan Quyen.
Quyen, in turn, was appointed Secretary of the Can Tho Party
Committee. Quyen's appointment to Can Tho is a homeward
journey. He was elected Can Tho Party Secretary after three
years as Deputy Chief of the Central Commission on Home Security
(the Commission oversees internal security and law enforcement
organizations including the police and prosecutor's office).
Prior to that, Quyen was Party Secretary of Soc Trang Province
in the Mekong Delta.

Education and Career
--------------


5. (SBU) University-level education is not a prerequisite for
provincial leadership, but ideological grounding is. Of the 33
provincial Party Secretaries, less than a third have
higher-level education. (Five -- in An Giang, Tay Ninh, Binh
Thuan, Khanh Hoa, and Ba Ria-Vung Tau -- have BAs;, two - - in
Lam Dong and Dong Nai -- have MAs; and three -- in Danang, Quang
Nam and Ninh Thuan -- have PhDs.) However, all Party
Secretaries and their deputies must have an "advanced degree" in

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politics. The majority of the current Secretaries and Deputy
Secretaries obtained this certificate by taking courses offered

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at the provincial political schools where visiting professors
from the Ho Chi Minh Political Academy are sent to teach. As a
rule, the Deputy Director of a provincial government department
or the Vice-Chairman of a District People's Committee must have
an advanced degree in politics to be appointed to their post.


6. (SBU) The job histories of the current cohort of Secretaries
and Deputy Secretaries shows that the Party prefers to promote
those involved in organization, security and ideology over those
focusing on economics and development. The vast majority once
headed provincial Departments of Public Security or Military
Commands, or served as heads of the provincial Committees for


Party Control, Organizational Affairs, Home Security, ore
Culture and Ideology. For example, the Party Secretaries of Ca
Mau and Dong Thap provinces previously headed their provincial
Military Commands. The two current Deputy Secretaries of Lam
Dong headed the provincial Public Security Department and
Military Command, respectively. Kien Giang's new Standing
Deputy Secretary, Bui Quang Ben, was the Director of the
province's Public Security Department. Dak Lak's new Deputy
Secretary, Lu Ngoc Cu, was Director of the province's Public

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Security Department, as was Gia Lai's new Deputy Party
Secretary, Ksor Nham.

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The Southern School Club
--------------


7. (SBU) Although obtaining biographic material on Party leaders
is difficult, a significant number of current provincial leaders
appear to belong to the "Southern School" cohort. These are
students identified by the Party as future leaders and sent
during the "American War" to a special school in the North.
Members of this group include An Giang Secretary Nguyen Hoang
Viet, former Gia Lai Party Secretary Nguyen Tuan Khanh (who was
recently promoted to a central-level Party job in Hanoi -- see
paragraph 8),Ba Ria Vung Tau Secretary Nguyen Tuan Minh, Danang
Secretary Nguyen Ba Thanh, Danang Deputy Secretary Hoang Tuan

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Anh, Quang Nam Secretary Va Ngoc Hoang, and Quang Nam Deputy
Secretary Nguyen Xuan Phuc. Prime Minister Phan Van Khai

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reportedly also is a graduate of the "Southern School."

Seniority matters; Women and Minorities Underrepresented
-------------- --------------


8. (SBU) The Party does not appear to have a mechanism to allow
talented young officials to advance quickly to leadership
positions. All but three deputy secretaries of the 2006-2010
cohort are in their mid-fifties or older. Of the roughly 100
possible senior Party leadership positions, women and ethnic
minorities hold only six. Tra Vinh Province appointed an ethnic
Khmer Deputy Secretary, Dak Lak an ethnic Ede Secretary, Gia Lai
an ethnic Jarai Deputy Secretary, and Kontum an ethnic Sedang
woman Party Secretary. Tien Giang and Tay Ninh provinces also
have female Party Secretaries.

Persons to Watch
--------------


9. (SBU) Nguyen Tuan Khanh has emerged as a rising political
star. He was Deputy Party Secretary of An Giang Province before
his promotion to Secretary of Gia Lai in 2002. Khanh, who is
reportedly linked to Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung, is
credited for overcoming the opposition of hardliners in Gia Lai,
facilitating greater socio-economic development for ethnic
minorities and easing restrictions on Protestant groups. A
contact from An Giang told us that Khanh will be promoted to
Chief of the Central Commission on Home Security after the
National Party Congress. Quang Nam Deputy Party Secretary and
Chairman of the People's Committee Nguyen Xuan Phuc is rumored
to be a contender for an economic-sector Ministerial position in
the GVN; Phuc, a graduate of the Fulbright Economic Teaching
Program, is widely credited for being one of the prime movers
behind the emergence of Quang Nam's tourism sector.

Mostly Desultory Media Coverage
--------------


10. (SBU) Media coverage of the provincial Party Congresses
largely was rote and dry. There was no substantive reporting on
issues raised in the conclaves, no biographic information on
newly-elected members, and no real detail on tasks and
provincial targets during the upcoming five-year plan cycle
(2006-2010). HCMC's Party Congress was a relative exception,
with speeches by HCMC Party Secretary Triet emphasizing the
Party's need to attract fresh blood, fight corruption, and
improve the training of Party cadres to retain its credibility.
Former Prime Minister Vo Van Kiet's address to the HCMC Party
Congress received heavy HCMC press coverage. In a pitch for
comprehensive reform and introspection, Kiet called for the HCMC
Party Congress -- as well as all other provincial congresses --
to review both achievements and failures in the thirty years
since reunification. (Note: The first ten years after
unification saw the imposition of Marxist orthodoxy and the
collapse of the economy. Socio-economic mismanagement led to
the GVN's policy of Doi Moi or economic liberalization in 1986.
End Note.)


11. (SBU) With the exception of neighboring Dong Nai Province,
which also conducted a 30-year review, other Provincial
Congresses fudged the issue or explicitly covered 20 years.
Speakers at the provincial Party Congresses in the sensitive
Central Highlands were reported to have urged local leaders to
ensure that "security and stability" remain paramount even as


they focus on socio-economic development.

HCMC: Anticipating Major Change in mid-2006
--------------


12. (SBU) Although HCMC's November 2005 Party Congress left
virtually intact the entire senior HCMC Party personnel roster,
major changes are anticipated after the national 10th Party
Congress. Insiders tell us that HCMC Party Secretary and
Politburo member Nguyen Minh Triet will be transferred to Hanoi,
although the exact job he will hold is unclear. Some say he is
slated to become Vietnam's next President, replacing the
retiring Tran Duc Luong; others say he will replace Tran Dinh
Hoan as Chief of the Party Organization Committee. In either
case, Triet will retain his Politburo status. Triet reportedly
is pushing for his protege, Deputy HCMC Party Secretary Le Hoang
Quan, to replace him as HCMC Party Secretary (Party tradition
calls for the HCMC Party Secretary to be a Politburo member).
However, Truong Vinh Trong, the current Chief of the Central
Commission on Home Security, may be assigned to HCMC and Quan
tapped to replace HCMC People's Committee Chairman Le Thanh Hai,
whose future is clouded because of an emerging road-building
corruption scandal linked to his family. Hai's political
position is reported to be further weakened by the retirement of
Vice-President Truong My Hoa, to whom he is related by marriage.



13. (SBU) Pham Phuong Thao, Deputy HCMC Party Secretary and
current head of the HCMC People's Council, is slated to be the
new Vice-President. Thao is a protege of former Prime Minister
Vo Van Kiet. Current HCMC People's Committee Vice-Chairman
Nguyen Van Dua also is a rising star within the HCMC Party
apparatus and a favorite of Triet's. The Standing Vice-Chairman
of the People's Committee, Dr. Nguyen Thien Nhan, may be tapped
for a Vice-Ministerial position in Hanoi, but is reported not to
have the support of the Party apparatus in HCMC for a more
senior job in the city.

Comment
--------------


14. (SBU) Reformers within the Party had been advocating for
personnel change in Dak Lak; the removal of the provincial Party
Secretary could be important for U.S. religious freedom and

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human rights interests in the Central Highlands. The outgoing
Dak Lak Party Secretary was a third-generation revolutionary and
ethnic minority member who vehemently opposed efforts to ease
pressure on Protestants and to issue passports in family
reunification (Visas 93) cases involving ethnic minority
persons. Provincial officials openly (and with some relief)
characterized the new Party Secretary as "much more moderate"
during our visit to the province in early January. Similarly,
his newly appointed Deputy, and possible new People's Committee
Chairman, Senior MPS Colonel Cu, struck us as tough but
open-minded. In the month since the Dak Lak Party Congress,
there has been encouraging movement on religious freedom and
Visas 93 issues (reftel).


15. (SBU) Corruption also appears to be a key factor in shaping
the Party's provincial personnel decisions. Can Tho, Dak Lak,
and Kien Giang provinces uncovered major land and financial
misappropriation scandals in 2005. All three provinces removed
their leaders and promoted individuals with security backgrounds
to leadership positions. The apparent deliberations within the
Party on the removal of HCMC People's Committee Chairman Hai and
his replacement with the Chief of the Party's Central Committee
for Home Security is consistent with this trend.


16. (SBU) The current crop of provincial leaders is the last
generation to have any active connection to the "American War,"
which still helps shape the mindset of some within the Party.
Their successors -- the next generation of provincial leaders
(and Central Committee members) -- will have more diverse
backgrounds, better training, and international exposure. End
Comment.
CHERN


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