DIWANIYAH SECULAR POLITICIAN ON MILITIAS, SCIRI POLITICS

C O N F I D E N T I A L HILLAH 000077

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 5/6/2016
TAGS: PGOV KISL IZ
SUBJECT: DIWANIYAH SECULAR POLITICIAN ON MILITIAS, SCIRI POLITICS

CLASSIFIED BY: Alfred Fonteneau, Regional Coordinator, REO
Hillah, Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (C) SUMMARY: Abid Muslim, head of the Iraq National Accord
(INA) slate (Allawi) in Diwaniyah Province, spoke to REO Officer
on May 3rd, touching upon the stand-off between the Mahdi
Militia (MM) and the Badr Organization and decision-making on
the provincial council. According to Muslim, the Mahdi Militia
are benefiting from a decision by the predominant SCIRI party to
avoid confrontations between Moqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Militia on
one hand and the SCIRI-affiliated Badr Organization and the
Iraqi police on the other. While occasionally showing their
muscle in occasional "sporadic incidents", the MM is slowly, but
deliberately accumulating power and moving into properties and
mosques around Diwaniyah, sometimes directly under the nose of
the Iraqi Police (IP),according to Muslim. He stated that the
twenty-seat SCIRI bloc in the Provincial Council continues to
dominate deliberations, but that moderates, including the Allawi
bloc, occasionally team up with the Sadrists for a total of
fifteen seats. Nonetheless, Muslim complained, the SCIRI party
rarely fractures on votes and furthermore, dominates
sub-district politics. END SUMMARY


2. (C) Abid Muslim, the head of the INA slate in Diwaniyah,
spoke on May 3rd to the Diwaniyah IPAO making initial courtesy
calls in the Province. Muslim agreed with the Provincial
Governor and other local officials that Diwaniyah is one of the
safest provinces in Iraq, and explained that in his view, the
relative quiet in Diwaniyah stems from the reluctance of the
majority SCIRI party and its militia, the Badr Organization, to
confront the Mahdi Militia. The Mahdi Militia, Muslim said, is
slowly and steadily accumulating influence, in part by acquiring
property and mosques through the acquiescence of the
Badrist-controlled Iraqi police. He commented that as the Mahdi
Militia publicly occupy buildings in front of the police,
flouting public order, local teenagers have taken to wearing
Mahdi Militia style black clothing, knowing that the police will
be afraid to confront them.


3. (C) Nonetheless, Muslim said, if the new national government
is strong and forceful, forcing adherence to the rule-of-law,
the Mahdi Militia will fade away. COMMENT: Muslim was not so
subtly referring to the desirability of including Iyad Allawi in
the new government as the head of the National Security Council.
END COMMENT


4. (C) Muslim touched on local provincial politics, complaining
that the twenty-seat SCIRI majority on the Provincial Council
remains monolithic, rarely fracturing. He noted that issues and
personalities often were more important than party lines on the
provincial level. A loose grouping of moderates (INA),Da'wa,
and somewhat surprisingly, the five seats occupied by Sadrists
could occasionally muster fifteen seats. Nonetheless, the
"poorly educated" SCIRI Provincial Council members always voted
according to the wishes of the current and/or former Provincial
Council Chairman.


5. (C) Muslim said that the Provincial Council was debating
whether or not to hold sub-district local elections in
conjunction with provincial assembly elections. The other
option would be to organize local elections following the
provincial elections. COMMENT: From our viewpoint, the former
is desirable as it would ensure Independent Electoral Commission
of Iraq (IECI) oversight of both elections. END COMMENT
However, Muslim somewhat ironically commented, in the end,
sub-district elections did not seem to greatly matter. He
asserted that under local election by-laws drafted in part with
the assistance of USG-funded contractor RTI, the SCIRI-dominated
majority on most local councils have the power to remove
minority members almost at will.

FONTENEAU