SOUTH CENTRAL SHI'A VIEWS ON SELECTION OF JAWAD AL-MALIKI AS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HILLAH 000072

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/27/2016
TAGS: PGOV KISL KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: SOUTH CENTRAL SHI'A VIEWS ON SELECTION OF JAWAD AL-MALIKI AS
PRIME MINISTER

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CLASSIFIED BY: Alfred Fonteneau, Regional Coordinator, REO
Hillah, Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (C) SUMMARY: After the April 22 selection of Jawad
Al-Maliki as the Prime Minister-designate, REO Hillah canvassed
leaders in the heavily Shi'a South Central region of Iraq for
their views on this development. Not surprisingly, reaction to
Maliki's selection broke down mostly along Shi'a
Islamist/secular lines, with Islamists largely supporting his
selection, and most secular leaders criticizing him or stating
they would withhold judgment on him until they see how he
performs as Prime Minister (PM). Some Islamist leaders described
Maliki as a better leader than Ibrahim Al-Jafari, who Maliki
very recently replaced as the Shi'a Islamist United Iraqi
Alliance (UIA) coalition's PM candidate (NOTE: Maliki is
Jafari's deputy in the Islamic Da'wa party, which is a
constituent member of the UIA). Many of those contacted
indicated they were glad to see the formation of the government
progress. There have been no protests in the South Central
region to the replacement of Jafari with Maliki, or to Maliki's
selection as PM. END SUMMARY.

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SADRIST, ISLAMIC DA'WA LEADERS WELCOME SELECTION OF MALIKI
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2. (SBU) REO Hillah local staff spoke with two Sadrist leaders
in the South Central region, both of whom described Maliki's
selection as PM as beneficial and predicted it would advance the
formation of the government. One from Najaf stated explicitly
that "Sadrists will respect this decision." They both noted
Maliki's strong anti-Baathist credentials and highlighted the
fact that his selection was a UIA decision.


3. (C) One of the Sadrist leaders, Dr. Basim Sharif Al-Hejamy
(Islamic Fadila party),a Council of Representatives (CoR)
member from Wasit and a spokesman for the UIA, described Maliki
as a man of action, asserting that he "wishes to execute more
than talk." Al-Hejamy also alluded to the UIA's determination to
have its own coalition, or, more broadly, the Shi'a members of
the CoR, dominate the new government, in stating that Maliki's
selection "is also a good step to overcome the Sunni's plan to
form a national unity government."


4. (C) Sa'ad Zawain, the deputy head of the Islamic Da'wa party
office in Najaf province, described Maliki as an "excellent
candidate" for the Prime Ministership. Zawain argued that Maliki
would show more flexibility than Jafari in resolving political
problems. In keeping with comments from Sadrist leaders
themselves, Zawain offered that Sadrists within the UIA
supported the selection of Maliki. Zawain predicted that
choosing the heads of the ministries would take one to one and a
half months.

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SOUTH CENTRAL SCIRI REPS WELCOME RESOLUTION
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5. (C) South Central representatives of the Supreme Council for
the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI, which is a constituent
party of the UIA) welcomed the selection of Maliki as Prime
Minister. Babil Deputy Governor Hasoon Ali Hasoon was
particularly pleased that a Babil native had been chosen and
highlighted his "long history of patriotic struggle against
Saddam's regime." Similarly, Wasit SCIRI head Ahmed Al-Hakim
praised the role of the Marja'iya in Najaf in brokering a
face-saving compromise for all elements of the UIA. In Najaf,
Provincial Council Deputy Chairman Shaykh Khalid Al-Noumani said
he would have preferred Ali Al-Adeen as the alternative to
Jafari, but was pleased that the UIA was able to solve the
problem independently.


6. (C) None of the SCIRI officials contacted by REO staff
expected significant changes on substantive issues as a result
of Maliki's selection. Deputy Governor Hasoon, who described
Jafari and Maliki as "two sides of the same coin," placed the
unity of the UIA and its governing program ahead of specific
personalities. Wasit's Al-Hakim particularly welcomed Maliki's
reputation as a forceful negotiator and administrator, and in a
pointed jab at Jafari, described Maliki "as a man who liked to
do more than talk."

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INDEPENDENT ISLAMISTS VIEW MALIKI FAVORABLY
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7. (C) Independent Islamists in the region, all of whom spoke
very favorably of Maliki. Dr. Abdul Hussein Al-Mousawi, the
Najaf Provincial Council Chairman, offered that Maliki will have
"a much stronger and more stable basis of support in the CoR
than Jafari would have had" (although he did not offer an

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explanation as to why this would be the case).


8. (SBU) Abdul Ali Yaseen Mohammed Al-Yasseri, the Deputy
Chairman of the Karbala Provincial Council, said "this
nomination might not please everyone but the new government will
get quick approval from the CoR." Al-Yasseri also described
Maliki as a "patriot" who had fought against Saddam Hussein.
Adnan Abid Al-Turki, a journalist for Al-Fayhaa newspaper,
stated that the UIA has succeeded because changing the
characters has nothing to do with their program -- the UIA
program will still be accomplished, whether it is Jafari or
Maliki in the Prime Minister's position.

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SOME ALLAWI LIST MEMBERS SEE BLOW TO NATIONAL UNITY GOVT.
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9. (C) Two CoR members from the National Iraqi List (NIL, a
largely secular list led by former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi)
and the Iraqi National Accord party (Allawi's party, which is
part of the NIL) from South Central Iraq greeted the end of the
political stalemate with resignation. Shaykh Jamal Al-Batik, a
CoR member from Wasit, said he would have preferred Jafari or
Adil Abd Al-Mehdi (of SCIRI) instead of Maliki, primarily
because of Maliki's reputation as a tough and inflexible leader.
Shaykh Sa'ad Safouk, a CoR member from Karbala, interpreted
Maliki's selection as a further blow to the Allawi alliance's
wish for a national unity government, and criticized Maliki as
"another face of Jafari, but more extreme."


10. (SBU) An Iraqi National Accord (INA) member from Babil,
Sabah Allawi, was more neutral on the selection of Maliki,
stating, "our opinion in the INA is not against or with
Al-Maliki. We will support the PM as long as he applies the
constitution." He added that he and his colleagues would not
pass judgment on Maliki until the government is formed and it is
tested.

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BEYOND THE PARTIES: OTHER SECULARISTS WITH MIXED VIEWS OF MALIKI
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11. (SBU) The REO contacted five secular leaders who are not
currently members of political parties or office holders. Some
see Maliki as an unknown quantity. Two of the secular leaders
said that there is not much difference between Maliki and
Jafari, with one of these two offering, grudgingly, that Maliki
is something of an improvement over Jafari. Two of the five said
they, or local residents in general, were glad that there had
been major progress in forming a government, after the long
delay.


12. (C) Eltefat Al-Kabiee, a woman who works as a lawyer with
the Najaf Human Rights Center, reasoned that Iraqis should
withhold judgment on Maliki's abilities as Prime Minister until
they have the opportunity to see him perform. A journalist from
Karbala said people there wanted Jafari to remain the nominee
given that he is from Karbala, but that residents do not have
any "objection" to Maliki.


13. (C) Taking a less charitable view of the new Prime
Minister-designate, a secular journalist from Wasit declared,
"this nomination accomplished nothing. Al-Maliki is only another
face of Al-Jafari because he is the number two in the Da'wa
party." Amal Al-Rubaiee, the head of the Karbala Family Center
(a women's rights organization),stated that there is not much
difference between Jafari and Maliki, "but with Al-Jafari people
had zero hope and now about thirty percent [have] hope in
solving their daily difficulties."

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COMMENT
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14. (C) There have been no protests or violence in the heavily
Shi'a South Central region in response to the selection of
Maliki, and none of the REO's contacts predicted any. This is
largely due to fact that all parts of the UIA, including the
Sadrists, can live with Maliki as part of the broader bargain
over senior CoR leadership, and eventually, cabinet positions.
Regardless of their opinion of Maliki, most of those contacted
seemed glad to see the fight over the selection of the Prime
Minister come to an end, so that the political parties in the
CoR can move towards the completion of the formation of the
government. END COMMENT.
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