TIMELINE ACCEPTABLE FOR WITHDRAWAL OF COALTION FORCES, SAYS

C O N F I D E N T I A L HILLAH 000142

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 9/23/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR PINS PREL IZ
SUBJECT: TIMELINE ACCEPTABLE FOR WITHDRAWAL OF COALTION FORCES, SAYS
SADR


CLASSIFIED BY: Charles Hunter, Regional Coordinator, REO Hillah,
State.
REASON: 1.4 (d)


1. (C) Summary: Muqtada Al-Sadr, in his most recent Friday
sermon, demanded the release of his recently detained associates
and called on coalition forces (CF) to leave Iraq. He also
derided the national government as ineffective and fragile, but
touted the political process as a peaceful form of warfare and
closed his sermon with a call for unity between Iraqis and the
Iraqi army. Interestingly he seems to be softening his earlier
demands for immediate CF withdrawal, and now would consider a
timeline drawn up by the Council of Representatives (COR) an
acceptable resolution to the issue. Either way, he clearly
hopes to position himself to benefit politically from the
eventual departure of foreign troops. End summary.

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THE FAITHFUL GATHER
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2. (SBU) In numbers approaching 1500 a crowd of Sadr faithful
formed in Kufa mosque in Najaf on September 22 to hear Muqtada
Al-Sadr deliver the Friday sermon. The throng included a number
of clerics loyal to Sadr and Jaysh Al-Mahdi (JAM) operatives;
Saheeb Al-Ameri, head of Allah's Martyrs and noted financier of
JAM activities, was in attendance as well. Security was
understandably tight and of a distinctly military cast. Adorned
in bulletproof vests and armed, the security forces formed a
tight cordon around Sadr and the mosque. Many of the faithful
wore green headbands as a show of support for their provocative
leader.


3. (SBU) Sadr insisted to his followers that coalition forces
were on a crusade to dismantle his organization piece by piece.
The arrest of 12 of his associates, including Sheikh Salah
Al-'Ubaidi in Najaf, over the previous 48 hours had Sadr
demanding their release and promising to continue doing so
weekly until they were free from what he termed unlawful
detention. He also called for mass demonstrations in protest of
the arrests, which he considers a ruse by the "vicious trinity"
(CF, the Iraqi army, and the national government) to use the
pretext of a war on terror to apply pressure to the Sadrist
movement.

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IRAQI UNITY AND TIMETABLE FOR WITHDRAWAL
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4. (SBU) Throughout the nearly hour-long sermon Sadr repeated
his call for the withdrawal of "occupation" forces. He asserted
that that national government has a responsibility to set a
timetable for withdrawal, and that such a schedule determined by
the COR would be an acceptable, if less than ideal, way to deal
with the current state of affairs. Unfortunately, he said, the
Baghdad government is weak, fragile and possibly incapable of
making such a demand. He went on to add that the central
leadership, which should be helping Iraqis live without the
threat of sectarian violence, "cannot even provide fundamental
services to the people so that they might live peacefully as a
united country." Playing up his own participation in the
political process, Sadr stressed that although the last national
election was held during a time of occupation, he had not
objected to it and had even advocated participation for the sake
of Iraqi unity. "We (Iraqis) need peaceful and political
warfare," he proclaimed, warning against clashes with "brothers"
in the Iraqi army who are clearly under the evil sway of
"occupiers."


5. (C) Comment: Sadr continues to play both sides of the fence,
in one breath describing the political process as broken and in
the next urging his followers to participate. The self-styled
populist stands to benefit like few others from an enfeebled
national government. His Jaysh Al-Mahdi thrives on political
weakness and in fact uses violence daily to ensure a lack of
coherence and effectiveness on the provincial level. Likewise
his sermons are rarely for the exclusive consumption of
worshippers inside Kufa mosque. What is particularly noteworthy
in his recent preaching is his call for a timeline for CF
withdrawal: before May 2006 he was demanding that foreign troops
leave immediately. Irrespective of the timing it is clear, and
ironic, that he is looking to inherit a political throne that
Coalition Forces would gradually turn over and secure while his
own JAM is creating chaos. End comment.

HUNTER