Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06HERMOSILLO36
2006-01-31 03:48:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Consulate Hermosillo
Cable title:  

PRD AND "ALTERNATIVA" PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES CAMPAIGN IN

Tags:  PGOV PREL ECON EINV ENRG SNAR MX 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO6905
PP RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
DE RUEHHO #0036/01 0310348
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 310348Z JAN 06
FM AMCONSUL HERMOSILLO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1254
INFO RUEHME/AMEMBASSY MEXICO PRIORITY 0364
RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
RUEHHO/AMCONSUL HERMOSILLO 1614
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HERMOSILLO 000036 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/MEX; EMBASSY MEXICO FOR POL, ECON, MCCA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON EINV ENRG SNAR MX
SUBJECT: PRD AND "ALTERNATIVA" PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES CAMPAIGN IN
SONORA

HERMOSILLO 00000036 001.2 OF 002


UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HERMOSILLO 000036

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/MEX; EMBASSY MEXICO FOR POL, ECON, MCCA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON EINV ENRG SNAR MX
SUBJECT: PRD AND "ALTERNATIVA" PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES CAMPAIGN IN
SONORA

HERMOSILLO 00000036 001.2 OF 002



1. (SBU) Summary. PRD presidential candidate Lopez Obrador made
his first official campaign swing through Sonora state January

27. His visit culminated in political rally in Hermosillo,
which was well attended, but not as large as claimed. He made
32 promises to Sonoran voters - local media focused on his plan
to free up the Mexican Army to fight organized drug trafficking,
which he identified as a "notorious" problem in Sonora.
"Alternativa" presidential candidate Patricia Mercado also
campaigned in Sonora, successfully devoting most of her time to
media interviews, and a meeting with a small University of
Sonora (UNISON) group. Relations with the U.S. did not figure
largely in the campaigning of either candidate, although both
mentioned immigration policy and their desire for good relations
with the United States. End Summary.

AMLO'S PROMISES TO SONORA


2. (U) Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO),presidential
candidate of the Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD),
campaigned in Sonora state on January 27. He visited Cananea,
but the key event was a rally in Hermosillo. In an hour-long
speech before an enthusiastic crowd in the state capital, AMLO
made 32 promises to the people of Sonora that he said he would
implement if elected President. He publicly signed the list to
wrap up the speech. Local media focused on AMLO's statement
that the presence of narcotics-related organized crime in Sonora
was "evident and notorious," and on his promise to seek changes
in the Constitution so that the Mexican Army could be more
involved in fighting drug trafficking.

SEEKS MUTUAL RESPECT AND COOPERATION WITH THE U.S.


3. (U) AMLO's only direct reference in his stump speech to the
United States was to a plan to convert the 45 Mexican consulates
in the U.S. into centers of "legal protection" for Mexicans
living and working there. In an earlier press interview,
however, he said that he would try to reduce immigration to the

U.S. by reviving the Mexican economy. He stressed that he was
not anti-business, and that one of his priorities would be to
help businesses to generate jobs and avoid bankruptcy. He also
said he would propose an agreement of "mutual respect and
cooperation" to the U.S. government and, separately, discuss how
to bring about legalization of the status of millions of
Mexicans who were working in the U.S. out of necessity. One
promise in AMLO's speech which was among the most applauded was
that he will ensure construction of a high-speed "bullet" train
from Mexico City to Nogales.


4. (U) Other successful applause lines AMLO used in his
Hermosillo speech included promises to reduce gasoline and
electricity prices, to guarantee minimum wages that stayed ahead
of inflation, and to provide monthly food allowances and special
pensions for the elderly and the handicapped. His ideas for
financing these programs included tough anti-corruption
enforcement, a reduction in the overall size of government,
cutting the salaries of ministers and senior bureaucrats, and
adjusting the terms paid on the national debt. AMLO said he
would restructure the tax system radically and even abolish the
term "tax". He expressed confidence that Mexicans, once they
saw how fair the new system was, would be happy to pay
"contributions."

SIZE MATTERS?


5. (SBU) Experienced observers said that AMLO drew as large a
crowd in Hermosillo as Vicente Fox did in the last presidential
campaign. The PRD organizers claimed attendance of ten
thousand, and this figure was repeated by Imparcial,
Hermosillo's leading newspaper, which also identified the
majority of participants as students. Other local newspapers,
while giving AMLO prominent and largely uncritical coverage, put
the crowd size at four and a half thousand. Consulate officials
who covered the political gathering do not believe that more
than two and a half thousand people were present, most arriving
on 21 buses bearing "delegations" from locations around Sonora.
Most participants - although clearly enthusiastic about the
candidate - appeared to be largely middle-aged agriculture and
maquila workers and their families who were brought in for the
event.

PATRICIA MERCADO, "ALTERNATIVA" CANDIDATE ALSO IN SONORA


6. (U) Patricia Mercado Castro, presidential candidate of the
new, small "Alternativa" Social Democratic and Rural Party
(PASC),also campaigned in Sonora, visiting Hermosillo, Obregon
and Magdalena. She concentrated on media interviews, spending
the entire morning of January 27 in the Hermosillo Sanborn
restaurant giving one-on-one time to radio and print

HERMOSILLO 00000036 002.2 OF 002


journalists, talking to local PASC organizers, and greeting
members of the public who approached her. Mercado Castro later
met with the Rector of the University of Sonora and had a
detailed exchange with a group of about 150 UNISON students and
faculty for 90 minutes.

OPENING ENERGY SECTOR TO "MIXED" INVESTMENT AND OTHER IDEAS


7. (U) Mercado Castro said that Mexico is "decaying" and is in
urgent need of reforms, including giving priority to education,
science and technology, ending family violence, and fighting
narcotics trafficking and violence. On this last, she said the
current approach of the Mexican government to fighting narcotics
was "ineffective and obsolete," and unfairly penalized poor
cultivators and consumers. She expressed support for
legalization of "bland" drugs like marijuana (but definitely not
cocaine or amphetamines). Other themes she discussed were
support for families, women, and gay marriage and her opposition
to economic monopolies, public and private. She said that she
would open up the oil, gas and electric sectors to "mixed"
investment, and would back construction of infrastructure in
rural Mexico in order to connect small towns and field workers
to the wider world.


8. (U) Mercado Castro said Mexico needed deeper discussion of
the issues facing the country, and specifically added that AMLO
should be open to dialogue on "ideas of the Mexican Left," which
are more varied than what he represents.

MERCADO CASTRO ALSO BACKS GOOD U.S.-MEXICO RELATIONS


9. (U) The "Alternativa" candidate said that she believed U.S.
immigration policy is "oppressive," but emphasized that she was
not closed to talks with the United States and knew that good
relations with the U.S. were necessary.


10. (SBU) Comment: AMLO drew the lion's share of media
attention with his rally in Hermosillo, but the press -
especially local TV and radio stations - were also generous in
covering Mercado Castro, who appeared to be running a smart
campaign for someone with few resources. She ensured that she
was interviewed in depth on television, while AMLO was featured
in reportage showing the crowd and using a few sound bites from
his speech. Overall coverage stuck in large measure to what the
candidates said and placed both of them in a favorable light.
Editorial comment on the visits of the candidates has been scant.


11. (SBU) In the 2000 presidential election, Sonora voters went
51 percent for the winning National Action Party (PAN) candidate
Vicente Fox (PAN),and gave the Institutional Revolutionary
Party (PRI) and PRD candidates respectively almost 34 percent
and 13 percent. For what it is worth -- which is probably not
much given the small, unscientific sample and the stage of the
election campaign -- an Imparcial poll last week of local voters
found AMLO (25 percent) behind PAN's Felipe Calderon (32.1
percent) in the overall standing. PRI candidate Roberto Madrazo
(10.4 percent) came in third. End Comment.
CLARKE