MAJOR PRESIDENTIAL HOPEFULS VISIT SONORA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HERMOSILLO 000228

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/MEX, EMBASSY MEXICO FOR CMMA, POL

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM MX
SUBJECT: MAJOR PRESIDENTIAL HOPEFULS VISIT SONORA

REF: A) HERMOSILLO 0082; B) HERMOSILLO 0036

HERMOSILLO 00000228 001.2 OF 002



1. (SBU) Summary. All three major presidential candidates
campaigned in Sonora over the last two weeks, with none of them
making a big splash. The calculated distancing of Governor
Bours from Robert Madrazo was obvious. However, the Governor
still studiously avoided an irrevocable split with Madrazo and
the Institutional Revolution Party (PRI) as -- apparently for
his own long-term ambitions -- he strives to demonstrate that he
can score gains in Sonora for the PRI "reformist" wing.
National Action Party (PAN) candidate Felipe Calderon appeared
to be holding his own in Sonora despite factional fighting in
the state and local party organizations. Andres Manuel Lopez
Obrador (AMLO) of Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD) generated
excitement in rural southern Sonora, but local candidates from
the PRD and its Workers Party (PT) ally suddenly have been
disqualified en masse from running. End Summary.

PRI -- MADRAZO'S SONORA VISIT GOES FROM BAD TO WORSE


2. (SBU) PRI presidential hopeful Roberto Madrazo returned to
Sonora on May 17, flying in to Hermosillo, and visiting Nogales
and San Luis Rio Colorado for campaign events. Sonora Governor
Eduardo Bours, the state's top PRI politician, pointedly ignored
his party's national candidate again (Ref A). Bours did not
greet Madrazo at the airport or attend a meeting of PRI
supporters in Hermosillo's Expo Forum, which only attracted 400
participants.


3. (U) The PRI Sonora organization did arrange a rally for
Madrazo in Nogales, but it too reportedly drew only 500, and
ended with Carlos Daniel Fernandez Guevara, the head of PRI
Sonora, and several local candidates walking out. They were
reacting to the presence of Samuel Moreno Teran, a long-time
PRIista who is running to become a federal deputy on the
PRI-PVEM (Green Ecologist) alliance endorsed by the national PRI
(but not the local PRI organizaton). Moreno and other PRI-PVEM
candidates had not been invited because of their differences
with the Governor and PRI Sonora, and the situation was
exacerbated when Madrazo gave Moreno the microphone. By the
time Madrazo reached San Luis Rio Colorado, no PRI Sonora
candidates were accompanying him.

TOUGH POLITICS IN SONORA


4. (U) Governor Bours and the PRI Sonora organization -- despite
the obvious snubs -- were careful not to openly declare a break
with the national candidate. Bours publicly blamed the
resulting "disrespect" to Madrazo on maneuvering by his rival,
former governor Manlio Beltrones, who (he said) had put the
PRI-PVEM candidates up to their disruptive appearance at the
rally. Bours suggested that Moreno and Guadalupe Garcia
Benitez, who are sitting PRI local deputies in the Sonora
Congress, should be expelled from PRI for their PVEM
affiliations.


5. (U) On May 19, in an incident that some see as a form of
political revenge, the Sonora judicial police (PJE) detained
Reynaldo Castillo Lopez, an active Madrazo political operative
in Sonora and leader of the Madrazo Foundation. The arrest was
made on the basis of a 1997 apprehension order for alleged
aggravated robbery of a wholesale automotive parts factory.
Castillo Lopez was released without being charged the next day.
He claimed to have been mistreated in prison and declared that
he would not be intimidated.

WHAT THE GOVERNOR MIGHT HAVE IN MIND


6. (SBU) On May 15, Enrique Palafox (protect),the
newly-appointed Sonora state Secretary of Government, told the
PO that Governor Bours would continue to distinguish himself
from Madrazo, "a PRI dinosaur", without disavowing him
completely. He said that Bours wanted to maintain control of
local PRI candidate selection and, as a member of the PRI
"reformist" wing, had very different ideas from Madrazo about
directions the party and Mexico should take.


7. (SBU) Deeper into the conversation, Palafox said that the
intra-party politicking for the July 2 elections represented a
gamble for a possible run by Bours at the Mexican presidency in

2012. That hope was premised, he said, on a strong showing by
PRI in the Sonora elections, especially victories in the
Hermosillo municipal race and other city halls contests. PAN
mayors currently hold office in Hermosillo and Obregon, the two
largest cities in Sonora. Palafox said that PRI was closer in
the polls now than at a comparable point before the last
elections and had good chances for wins in both races.


8. (SBU) The local PAN party's open bickering on its Hermosillo
mayoral candidate has fueled this PRI optimism. PAN has

HERMOSILLO 00000228 002.2 OF 002


confused voters with the rise, seeming anointment and then
casting off of several Hermosillo mayoral contenders (prominent
businessmen Javier Gandara Magana and Edmundo Briseno) before
settling on a final candidate: Rodolfo Flores Hurtado, former
city treasurer. On May 28, Flores Hurtado won the unanimous
backing for the nomination of a PAN convention which was,
however, boycotted by representatives of the PAN party's
national executive committee. His candidacy is seen as
reflecting the continuing influence of incumbent mayor Maria
Dolores del Rio. Flores Hurtado becomes the clear PAN candidate
relatively late in the campaign and will need to heal some of
the bruising inflicted on other PAN factions to stay ahead of
PRI candidate for Hermosillo mayor, Ernesto Gandara Camou.

PRD -- AMLO WELCOME IN THE SOUTH, BUT PRD SONORA IN SHAMBLES


9. (U) PRD presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador
(AMLO) traveled north from Sinaloa to return to Sonora on May
18, focusing this campaign swing on the southern, rural part of
the state where PRD has its greatest strength (Ref B). Southern
Sonora has a history of agrarian reform in which larger holdings
were broken up and distributed to small farmers, and AMLO's
populism resonates well there. He reportedly was warmly greeted
in rallies in Huatabampo, Navajoa, Obregon and Guaymas, after
having attracted larger crowds in Sinaloa, a highly agricultural
state. He flew onward out of Hermosillo the evening of May 18,
but met only with -- and briefly -- local PRD officials.


10. (U) The PRD-PT coalition in Sonora is reeling from the May
20-21 unprecedented disqualification from the elections of 43 of
its candidates by the Sonora's State Electoral Council (CEE).
Twenty-one district candidates for the state congress, 3
plurinominal candidates, and 10 mayoral candidates were barred
from registration because of alleged "negligence" and
irregularities ranging from lack of documents required under the
electoral code, failure to respect parity of the sexes in party
committees and candidacies, and non-compliance with residency
requirements. PRD lawyers are appealing and Governor Bours
himself has said publicly that he will look into the matter.

PAN - CALDERON IN QUICK CAMPAIGN STOP


11. (U) PAN presidential candidate Felipe Calderon Hinojosa -
who has not yet campaigned heavily in Sonora -- also visited the
state's southern region on May 25, drawing (reportedly) over
4000 supporters to a rally in Navajoa, and then meeting with
smaller groups in Obregon. He reportedly emphasized that he
would support social programs that benefit the most vulnerable
groups in Mexican society, but needs to have the support of the
federal Congress to do so. Word has also leaked that Governor
Bours met with Calderon for coffee in Obregon, a significant
courtesy in light of the Governor's failure to find time for
Madrazo.


12. (SBU) Comment: While the presidential candidates are
visiting Sonora with greater frequency, the campaign locally
does not yet seem very intense. More posters and, on most days,
most local media coverage, is devoted to local candidates and
local intra-party feuds than the national race. Nevertheless,
at this point PAN candidate Calderon appears out ahead in Sonora
of a largely ignored Madrazo and Lopez Obrador, whose campaign
is under-organized (and undermined). The main story remains the
role of Governor Bours and his bid to demonstrate mastery in the
July elections of Sonora politics in a bid for greater national
prominence. End Comment.
CLARKE