SEPTEMBER GAERC - FINNISH PRESIDENCY VIEWS

C O N F I D E N T I A L HELSINKI 000936

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/13/2013
TAGS: PREL PGOV UN EU YI SR BO MK SU CG IS LE
IR, IZ, UP, KPAL, FI
SUBJECT: SEPTEMBER GAERC - FINNISH PRESIDENCY VIEWS

REF: A. STATE 151189


B. THOME-ROBINSON E-MAILS 11-12 SEPT 06

Classified By: PolChief Gregory Thome, Reasons 1.5 (b) and (d).


1. (U) PolChief, EU Unit Chief and visiting Finland Deskoff
delivered subject demarche to Finnish EU Correspondent Jarno
Syrjala Sept. 13. Syrjala welcomed our input and offered the
following notable responses:


2. (C) SUDAN/DARFUR: Syrjala expressed pessimism regarding
the situation on the ground and noted that keeping the AMIS
effort on track in the face of increasing antagonism from
Khartoum will become "the big headache for the rest of (the
Finnish) presidency." EU Special Rep Pekka Haavisto (a Finn)
has just returned from Sudan and, based on his report, High
Rep Solana will provide recommendations to the ministers.
However, next steps for the EU appear very unclear, given
that Haavisto was able to make very little progress in moving
the GOS to accept a UN re-hatting of the AMIS mission.
Unless Khartoum changes its stance dramatically, some EU
members are beginning to float the idea of raising the
possibility of moving toward UN sanctions and possibly even
indictments at the ICC (Germany, in particular, appears to
support this option, Syrjala said). As for the future of the
operation, there is EU money from the African Peace Facility
(APF) to support AMIS through the end of October, and
thereafter national British and Dutch contributions will keep
it afloat through year's end (see also ref b). Thereafter,
however, several member states are uneasy about supporting
the mission well into 2007 without the UN re-hatting. In the
shorter term, Syrjala said, expect the GAERC to issue a
strong statement in support of UNSCR 1706; in addition, the
Finns will seek to hold a troika (Council, Commission,
Finland, Germany) format meeting with the Sudanese during UN
Week to express their concerns.


3. (C) IRAN: Solana's initial conversations with Larijani did
not prompt tremendous optimism within the EU, but the mantra
remains "in Javier we trust," Syrjala said. He again
emphasized that the Solana-Larijani meetings are
"clarifications," not "negotiations," and that this had been
made very clear to the Iranians. In response to our specific
question, Syrjala said that the EU3 remain firmly committed
to UNSC sanctions should Tehran refuse the path of peaceful
negotiation and fail to halt its enrichment program, and that
all 22 other member states fully support this. However, he
added, problems could emerge if the US and the EU are unable
to convince China and Russia to accept sanctions. While many
member states would support "unilateral" EU and US sanctions
against Iran, Syrjala opined, other MS might not. The Finns
received "somewhat encouraging" signs from Moscow during a
bilateral political directors' meeting last week, Syrjala
reported, and it appears "Solana has been doing some
effective diplomacy" with the Russians. However, China
remains more problematic. Again, looking toward the GAERC,
Syrjala said that the conclusion issued -- and hence next
steps -- on Iran will depend largely on what Solana reports
from his next meeting with Larijani.


4. (C) ISRAEL-PALESTINE: Syrjala assured us that the EU and
the US remain united in demanding that any PA national unity
government must explicitly accept the Quartet's principles.
The burden falls to Hamas to accept the three main conditions
that have been well established by the international
community, he said. FM Errki Tuomioja spoke Sept. 12 to
President Abbas and reported that he remained upbeat, Syrjala
said, but expressed some concern that Abbas may be "promising
too much too fast," given Hamas' poor track record this far.
In the meantime, the EU will need to extend the Temporary
International Mechanism to address the humanitarian situation.
HYATT