FINLAND EU PRESIDENCY VIEWS ON NEXT STEPS IN THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L HELSINKI 000680

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/19/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS MARR EUN FI
SUBJECT: FINLAND EU PRESIDENCY VIEWS ON NEXT STEPS IN THE
MIDDLE EAST


Classified By: POLCHIEF GREGORY THOME FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: The EU has agreed to offer peacekeepers
for a mission in Lebanon if called upon by the UN.
Privately, Finnish MFA Secretary of State Torstila told
us that UN and EU hopes to send a force to the region
any time soon are "unrealistic," given the current level
of violence and apparent opposition to such a force from
both Tel Aviv and Beirut. Should such a mission
ultimately go forward, Torstila believes that at least
20,000 troops -- with a clear "peace enforcement"
mandate -- will be necessary, as opposed to the 10,000
the EU Ministers apparently discussed informally. He
was pointedly non-committal in response to a question
regarding how EU troops might be involved in enforcing
UNSC Resolution 1559. Should an EU PKO eventually go
forward, Finland intends to show leadership by seeking a
supplemental budget allocation that would allow it to
make a robust national contribution. End Summary.


2. (C) Over a tour-d'horizon lunch with Ambassador Ware
and PolChief, Finnish Secretary of State Pertti Torstila
offered several insights into the EU Foreign Ministers'
announcement this week of its willingness to send
international peace monitoring forces to Lebanon in
response to a United Nations request. While emphasizing
that the EU stands ready to do so if called upon,
Torstila stated bluntly that "Kofi Annan's dream" --
which is shared by the EU -- of sending such a force
anytime soon is "unrealistic." The current level of
violence on the ground simply will not permit it and, it
appears, neither Tel Aviv nor Beirut is prepared to
accept such a force. For now, Torstila said, the EU
will have to stand by and wait to see how events in the
region develop.


3. (C) As regards the force itself, Torstila said that
the EU Ministers had informally talked about a mission
numbering about 10,000 troops. However, in his view,
this would be far too few; at least 20,000 would be
necessary. In addition, even though the EU and the UN
have used terms such as "stabilization force" or "peace
monitoring mission", any force that might eventually be
sent to Lebanon would have to be empowered with a clear
"peace enforcement" mandate. When asked, he was careful
not to specify at this stage what role -- if any -- EU
troops might play in helping to enforce UNSC Resolution
1559 by disarming Hezbollah. However, he agreed with
the U.S. that implementation of 1559 is ultimately one
of the keys to peace, and said the EU role vis--vis
the resolution would certainly have to be defined by
the Security Council and agreed to by the EU if the
mission were to proceed.


4. (C) As regards Finland's national role, Torstila
referred to the GOF's public announcement that it would
provide a robust contribution to any EU peace operation
in the Middle East, to show leadership during its EU
Presidency (among other reasons). He noted that
Finland's legislative ceiling for crisis management
operations (CMOs) abroad is 2000 troops under arms at
any given time, and that currently it is well under that
number. (NOTE: Finland currently has 780 troops
involved in CMOs worldwide; its largest current
operations are in Bosnia and in Afghanistan.) He
acknowledged that the GOF's CMO budget is currently
fully committed, but expressed confidence that
Parliament would approve a supplementary budget for a
Middle East operation.


5. (C) COMMENT: Clearly the Finnish EU Presidency
understands that several factors need to fall into place
or be negotiated before the EU can realistically
consider responding to a UN call for peacekeepers in the
Middle East -- not the least of which would be a
dramatic change in the current situation. The Finns,
who have experience and a strong track record in CMO,
are also acutely aware that such a mission would be
dangerous, politically difficult, and carry no
guarantees of success. That said, they are ready to
move forward nationally and in their current EU
leadership role if and when such a mission becomes a
possibility. END COMMENT.
WARE