AMBASSADOR WARE'S MEETING WITH PRESIDENT AHTISAARI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HELSINKI 001215

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS FI RS YI
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR WARE'S MEETING WITH PRESIDENT AHTISAARI

REF: HELSINKI 1210

Classified By: AMBASSADOR WARE FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: UN Special Envoy Martti Ahtisaari told
Ambassador Ware that he remains determined to deliver his
recommendations for Kosovo's final status within two
weeks of Serbia's Jan. 21 election, fearing that any
delays will "destabilize" Kosovo. Ahtisaari "would find
it rather strange" if Moscow used its veto in the UNSC;
however, he is not yet as confident as Washington and
Berlin are that Russia will abstain. Like the Finnish
Government, he is working hard to maintain EU unity and
is "pressuring" the incoming German EU Presidency to
continue that effort. He continues to dialogue with
other UNSC members to ensure their support, but President
Putin has not responded to his offer to meet. As for
Serbia, Ahtisaari said that PM Kostunica is "hopeless"
and will press Belgrade to stall as long as possible.
The international community also "lost some credibility
on ICTY" when NATO offered PfP to Serbia, although he
acknowledged that the gesture did serve the important
function of shoring up President Tadic. Ahtisaari
expressed great appreciation for USG support of his
efforts and for the collaboration with Ambassador Wisner.
End Summary.

Russian Uneasiness
--------------

2. (C) UN Special Envoy for the Future Status Process in
Kosovo and former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari
called on Ambassador Ware Dec. 7. Ambassador opened the
discussion by telling Ahtisaari that President Halonen
-- who has had several conversations with President Putin
over the course of Finland's EU Presidency -- had expressed
"uneasiness" (reftel) about how Russia might respond
should Serbia reject Ahtisaari's recommendations regarding
Kosovo's final status. (Halonen has previously told the
Ambassador that Putin's views stem from his "experiences"
in the Caucuses and with Islamic extremism.)


3. (C) Ahtisaari responded that Halonen has communicated
that view to him as well and that in many ways he shares
her concerns. Putin fears a "shrinking of the Orthodox
world," Ahtisaari explained, in this case the
establishment of a small Muslim state in the Balkans to
which the international community will pay attention for
five years, then abandon. More disturbingly, Russia
continues to argue that Kosovo's independence would set a
precedent for the "frozen conflicts" on Russia's borders
-- an argument Ahtisaari views as a signal that Russia
has joined Serbia in seeking "to deny what occurred in
1999." He noted that his report to the UN will argue
specifically that if Moscow and Belgrade want to "send a
message that what Milosevic did was OK and that sovereign
borders are holy," that will prove a sad commentary on
both countries' values. Given the gravity of other
problems facing Russia, "I would find it rather strange,
at the end of the day, if Moscow did not cooperate" on
Kosovo, Ahtisaari said. Nevertheless, he added,
Washington and Berlin are confident that Russia will
abstain in the UNSC, but "I am not yet so confident."

Lining up Support
--------------

4. (C) Ahtisaari has requested a meeting with President
Putin to discuss his concerns and to help move Russia
toward at least an abstention in the UNSC. However, he
said, Putin has not yet accepted the offer, saying there
are no new points that he has not heard already. Ahtisaari
is also directly lobbying EU member states and current or
incoming UNSC members. Some (he named South Africa,
Spain, Romania, Sweden and Slovakia) have needed more
persuading than he would have expected, while Italy, the
UK and the US have provided the strongest voices of
support. Finland has done a good job of maintaining EU
unity during its Presidency, Ahtisaari added, and he is
"pressing Germany" to continue that effort.


5. (C) In the end, of course, everything depends on the
main protagonists, with Serbia continuing to stall and to
press for unrealistic concessions from the Kosovars.
Ahtisaari believes that any delay would "destabilize
Kosovo;" to emphasize the seriousness of his point, he
has begun arguing that he will recommend that the Finnish
Government withdraw its troops from Kosovo if there is
any delay beyond the late January/early February
timeframe he has established. As for Serb intransigence,
PM Kostunica "is hopeless" and continues to lobby Russia

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and neighboring states for delays. President Tadic "is
the only democrat left" and needs to be supported,
Ahtisaari said. In that regard, he specifically raised
NATO's offer of PfP membership to Serbia, saying that
while Europe and the US "lost some credibility on ICTY
cooperation," the decision did have the upside of
supporting Tadic.

Comment
--------------

6. (SBU) Going into the home stretch, Ahtisaari appeared
about as confident as could be expected. He expressed
great appreciation for US support, noting specifically
that the naming of Amb. Wisner as the Secretary's Special
Representative was a "marvelous stroke" and that
collaboration with the US has been "first class." The
Ambassador offered the Embassy's assistance if it should
in any way prove useful.
WARE