POLITICAL PLURALISM KEY TO CUBA'S FUTURE, SAYS PAYA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HAVANA 009342

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE DEPT FOR WHA/CCA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/28/2016
TAGS: PHUM KDEM PREL SOCI CU
SUBJECT: POLITICAL PLURALISM KEY TO CUBA'S FUTURE, SAYS PAYA

REF: HAVANA 8662

HAVANA 00009342 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: COM Michael Parmly for Reason 1.4(d).


1. (C) Summary: Leading Cuban pro-democracy activist Oswaldo
Paya met with the COM on April 27 and argued that it will be
imperative for a future, legitimate Cuban Government to
embrace political pluralism. Paya said individual members of
the Communist Party (CP) should not be excluded from the
political process, but that the CP itself should be disbanded
because it is does not recognize the right of other parties
to exist. Paya and the COM also discussed the merits of
Cuba's 1940 Constitution, the rise of demagoguery in Latin
America, and the need for the USG to shift the playing field
in the US-Cuba "Battle of Ideas." Their discussion came a
week and a half after Paya shared a new Varela Project
document that reveals his vision of how a democratic GOC
would act on foreign policy. End Summary.


2. (C) Oswaldo Paya met with COM April 27 and argued that a
future, legitimate Cuban Government will have to embrace
political pluralism, adding that even CP members should be
allowed to play a role in a future GOC, though only as
individuals. Paya added that the CP itself, in its current
form, "does not respect the rights of citizens who might
belong to other parties," and should thus be disbanded. He
said senior officials of the current GOC and CP should be
called to account for serious crimes and rights violations.
Paya said most Cuban CP members are not true Communists, but
rather victims of Communism. "Let's face it: The people are
brainwashed, compromised, traumatized, held hostage...
however you want to say it. They're messed up, and we need a
solution that doesn't mess them up further. This is why we
need pluralism, including for CP members."


3. (C) Paya added that inclusion would be the only way to
avoid bloodshed during the inevitable transition. The COM
asked whether a completely bloodless transition is
conceivable, given the undercurrent of anger that flows
through Cuban society. Paya acknowledged the pent-up rage,
and said part of the solution will be avoiding the emergence
of a major gap between Cubans on and off the island.

CONSTITUTION NOT ENOUGH
--------------


4. (C) Paya told COM that the 1940 Constitution, which his
Christian Liberation Movement would like to see embraced by a
future GOC, is progressive, enshrines the separation of
powers and provides for independent tribunals. However, Paya
acknowledged that the Cuba of today bears little resemblance
to the Cuba of 1940, and said some of the socially
progressive parts of the 1976 Constitution should be
incorporated into Cuba's next Constitution. He said the mere
adoption of a Constitution, however well written, will not
move the country forward until the fog of disinformation
generated by the current regime begins to lift. He said
ordinary Cubans have succumbed to a real fear that they might
lose their job, home or pension if the current GOC crashes
and burns.

"THE CHAVEZES OF THE WORLD"
--------------


5. (C) Paya also discussed the rise of political intolerance
in Venezuela and other parts of Latin America. The COM noted
that instead of addressing a country's problems head-on, some
populations are turning instead to populist demagogues, and
that these leaders, in turn, are unifying the people by
subjugating them. Paya concurred, and noted the peril of
countries taking this path. He said, however, that "The
Chavezes of the world have successfully gotten out the
impression that the United States opposes social
transformation in Latin America." He added that
Cuban-sponsored literacy drives have bolstered this
impression.


6. (C) Paya said he agreed that three key criteria for change
-- the release of political prisoners, free elections, and
the registration of political parties - are crucial. He said
the challenge will be in the implementation. "Freeing the
prisoners? Of course, that's straightforward, and of course
it's the first step. But to hold fair elections you need an
election commission. And to open the way for other political
parties, you need the structure and support of laws. Right
now, those laws do not exist." After the fall of the current
regime, Paya envisions the formation of a constituent
assembly, followed by elections. However, he is difficult to
pin down on who should qualify to join the constituent

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assembly. Regarding eventual elections, Paya said he has
written to UN Secretary General Kofi Annan and Christine
Chanet, Special Representative for Cuba of the UN High
Commissioner for Human Rights, to urge their greater
involvement.

"SHIFT THE PLAYING FIELD"
--------------


7. (C) The COM thanked Paya for sharing with us his latest
Varela Project document, a 24-paragraph text called "New
Foreign Policy." (Reftel: The text shows that Paya and his
colleagues favor adhering to the '40 Constitution, honoring
Cuba's UN commitments, seeking debt forgiveness and
continuing the country's overseas health-care program.) Paya
welcomed criticism, positive or negative, and encouraged the
USG to take steps to "shift the playing field," to take the
momentum away from a GOC that he said has been successful in
shaping the debate on the US-Cuba "Battle of Ideas."
PARMLY