RUMOR CONTROL: FIDEL SAID TO UNDERGO NEW OPERATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L HAVANA 017059

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE DEPT FOR WHA/CCA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/29/2016
TAGS: PHUM KDEM SOCI CU
SUBJECT: RUMOR CONTROL: FIDEL SAID TO UNDERGO NEW OPERATION


Classified By: COM Michael Parmly for Reason 1.4(d).


1. (C) Summary: As would be expected, Havana is awash in
rumors over the health of Fidel Castro. One, from a
dissident who has provided accurate information in the past,
says Castro underwent follow-up surgery between August 24 and
26, but that no other details are available. Our suspicion
that Castro is being treated at Havana's elite "CIMEQ"
hospital is strengthened, following an AmCit's report on a
visit by GOC officials to his rented house, facing CIMEQ.
Dissidents are absorbing with great interest other reports
and rumors about Castro, including a statement from the Cuban
Liberal Union in Madrid that Castro has colon cancer. Some
of the dictator's relatives in exile have reportedly
discussed Castro suffering from pancreatic cancer, while a
separate rumor posits that Castro is receiving chemotherapy
and will soon see his hair and beard fall out. End Summary.


2. (C) Cuban dissident Gerardo Sanchez, brother of Elizardo
Sanchez of the Cuban Commission for Human Rights and National
Reconciliation, told Poloff on August 27 that he had heard
that between August 24 and 26, Fidel Castro underwent surgery
for his undisclosed medical condition. This would be a
follow-up to the surgery he had at the end of July, prompting
the July 31 "proclamation" that put Raul Castro in charge.
Gerardo Sanchez, who is widely connected and has provided
accurate information to USINT in the past, said he heard the
same rumor from three sources: one in the Health Ministry,
another in the Catholic Church and another who is close to a
member of Castro's personal bodyguard.


3. (C) The Cuban Government has not disclosed where Castro is
being treated, but the theory that he is at Havana's elite
CIMEQ hospital is strengthened by what our RSO heard recently
regarding an Amcit businessman living in a rental house in
front of CIMEQ. According to the Amcit, who makes frequent
visits to Havana, GOC officials stopped by the house on
August 24 and asked a neighbor about the foreigner staying
there. The move may reflect a heightened security
environment.


4. (C) Cuba's dissident community is abuzz over other
statements and unsubstantiated rumors connected with Castro's
incapacitation. Of keen interest is a report from Madrid
dated August 27 that quotes Antonio Guedes, vice president of
the Cuban Liberal Union, as saying that according to sources
that the Union cannot identify, doctors are treating Castro
for colon cancer and that for the GOC, this marks "the
beginning of the end." Sources close to some of Castro's
relatives in exile have referred to speculation of pancreatic
cancer, which is viewed as more aggressive than some other
forms. Separately, a rumor is circulating that Castro is
receiving chemotherapy and that his hair and beard will soon
start to fall out.

COMMENT
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5. (C) The regime does not calm the rumor mill with its
periodic announcements that Fidel Castro is recuperating. He
could be at CIMEQ, where VIPs are treated, or at a special
clinic at his "Ground Zero" estate in the western Havana
suburb of Siboney, which is close to CIMEQ in any case. Our
best guess, putting together all the rumors and the film
footage from Hugo Chavez's August 13-14 visit, is that Fidel
Castro has one or more terminal conditions that will prevent
him from returning to his hyperactive-leader role. Our best
estimate of Raul Castro is that he consults with Fidel
regularly, or at least understands that he has to go through
the motions of consulting with him as long as Fidel is alive.
PARMLY