"GREEN EYESHADE" SOBERON: CUBA'S SENIOR ECON GUY

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 HAVANA 010104

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SIPDIS

INR/IAA FOR BOB CARHART

E.O. 12958: DNG: CO 05/03/2016
TAGS: PGOV EFIN ECON PINR CU
SUBJECT: "GREEN EYESHADE" SOBERON: CUBA'S SENIOR ECON GUY

Classified By: MICHAEL E. PARMLY FOR REASONS 1.4 b/d


1. (C) Summary: Unhindered by his modest background in
accounting, Central Bank President Francisco Soberon has
become one of Castro's key advisors. The architect of GOC
efforts to recentralize the economy, Soberon has recently
eclipsed most other ministers in influence and public
profile (with the exception of Foreign Minister Felipe
Perez Roque). Soberon can be rigid and doctrinaire,
motivated by loyalty to Castro and firm marching orders to
stamp out corruption. He leads an ascetic lifestyle
supported in large part by his wife's earnings as a
perfume representative. Described as savvy, charming and
smart, foreign bankers nonetheless comment that Soberon
lacks expertise in his field. Despite this shortcoming,
Soberon knows how market economies work and may favor
economic liberalization, potentially positioning him to
play a role in a post-Castro transition economy. End
summary.

Architect of Dedollarization
--------------


2. (C) Francisco Soberon Valdes led an unexciting career
in the shipping business before taking over as head of
Cuba's National Bank in 1995 and the newly inaugurated
Central Bank in 1997 (Cuba's version of the Federal
Reserve). He took on the modernization of a banking
sector that previously relied on pencils, paper and
calculators. He introduced ATMs, debit cards, and
interest payments on deposits. Soberon was a protege of
Raul Castro's, and his support for moderate economic
reforms in the '90s placed him in the "reformist camp" of
GOC officials. He remained, however, outside Fidel's
inner circle.


3. (C) Soberon's career took off in 2004 amidst Castro's
campaign to recentralize the Cuban economy, rolling back
the reforms of the '90s and reasserting state control.
Soberon was the likely architect behind several
resolutions of the campaign, most notably, the November
2004 "dedollarization," that replaced the USD with the
Convertible Peso (CUC),and an April 2005 "revaluation"
that arbitrarily increased the value of the CUC against
all hard currencies. Soberon's one-two punch of
"dedollarization and revaluation" vacuumed up millions of
dollars in hard currency for the regime.


4. (C) Soberon not only liberated Castro from the
"demeaning" circulation of "Yankee dollars," but safely
stashed them in Central Bank coffers. The influx of hard
currency reportedly bolstered the GOC's credit rating, and
may have already been leveraged toward specific projects.
Castro recently funded the purchase of a thousand Chinese
buses, 400 Chinese cars and motorcycles (for use by the
electric company),a dozen Chinese locomotives, seven
Russian jets, the rehabilitation of a moribund oil
refinery, and a spate of construction projects in
preparation for the upcoming Non-Aligned Movement summit.
The GOC is currently negotiating the purchase of 8000
additional Chinese vehicles. Aside from lucrative
handouts from Venezuela's Hugo Chavez, Castro has
Francisco Soberon to thank for his spending spree.

Qualifications
--------------


5. (S) Soberon's modest background in accounting would not
qualify him to act as Central Bank President in a modern
country. On the other hand, he is one of very few GOC
officials who understand modern economies and
international markets. Japanese Ambassador Tatsuaki Iwata
observed, "Soberon knows more about Cuba's foreign debt
than anyone on or off the island." Iwata also said that
Soberon needed no reference materials to cite the location
of every "dollar, euro and yuan" in the Cuban banking
system. (Note: Japan is one of Cuba's largest creditors
and engages in regular debt negotiations with the Central
Bank. End note.)


6. (S) Despite these accolades, Soberon did not require
high-level technical skills to set himself apart in Cuba's
isolated command economy. Another Japanese diplomat told
us that a businessman who has known Soberon fifteen years
described him as "an ordinary technician" whom he was

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"surprised to see rise to Central Bank President."
According to former Canadian Commercial Counselor Sylvain
Fabi, a well-respected foreign banker claimed Soberon
"didn't know what he was talking about" and would never
have made it to a high position outside Cuba. British
Ambassador John Dew described Soberon's tenure in London
(where the banker spent six years with a Cuban shipping
company) as "nondescript."


7. (S) Professional expertise aside, most observers agree
Soberon is smart. In his dealings with the Canadian
Embassy, Fabi described him as a "tricky guy," adept at
blindsiding the Canadian ambassador with unexpected topics
of discussion. Like other regime officials, Soberon has
developed the ability to "monologue" his interlocutors
into submission. Reuters journalist Marc Frank, whom the
Central Bank president has granted personal interviews,
said Soberon hadn't changed much in ten years but now "he
lies a lot more."

Pecking Order
--------------


8. (C) Soberon has effectively marginalized Minister of
Economy and Planning Jose Luis Rodriguez, whom Frank
described as "alive but insignificant." Minister of
Foreign Trade Marta Lomas has also taken a back seat.
Most significantly, Soberon increasingly overshadows his
former supervisor: Vice President of the Council of State
Carlos Lage. Last year, a rumor circulated that Lage knew
nothing about Soberon's new foreign exchange controls
until he read about it in the paper.


9. (C) Soberon regularly appears at Castro's side during
public addresses and television appearances. He sat close
to Castro during a 2004 visit by Chinese President Hu
Jintao. In December 2005, Soberon joined Foreign Minister
Felipe Perez Roque (a favored Castro lapdog) in outlining
GOC goals before the National Assembly. A rumor recently
circulated that Soberon would be promoted into the
Politburo or Central Committee. Rumors have circulated
since 2003 that Soberon is slotted for Rodriguez' job as
Minister of Economy.

Making Him Tick
--------------


10. (S) Soberon is likely motivated by a desire to improve
Cuba's credit rating (downgraded by Moody's in 2002 to
"speculative grade, very poor"). Soberon has also been on
a decade-long campaign to stamp out corruption. A
Resolution introduced in December 2004 ordered that all
hard currency earnings be deposited directly into the
Central Bank, and was clearly aimed at undercutting
corrupt state managers. These motivations coincide with
observations that Soberon is ideological, but far more
technical than political. Marc Frank does not consider
the banker a "hard-core communist," though his nationalism
and leftist sentiments are unmistakable (exemplified by a
dismissive attitude toward foreign investment). Sylvain
Fabi described Soberon as "ideologically rigid and
doctrinaire." All the same, Soberon's associations with
reformers during the '90s indicate he may favor economic
(if not political) liberalization.

A Humble Lifestyle
--------------


11. (S) Observers describe Soberon as reserved, genteel
and smart. He is well-dressed, cultured and charming with
both men and women. He is an art-lover. According to one
observer, "Soberon looks like he could step out of a Rolls
Royce in downtown London." Maximo Lopez, a Cuban
businessman working for a German company, has known
Soberon since childhood. Lopez foots the bill when they
dine out, explaining that Soberon and his deputy, Jorge
Barrera, are such "militants" that they actually live off
their state salaries (27 CUC per month). According to
Lopez, Soberon owns one good suit as befits his office,
but depends on his wife's earnings as a perfume
representative for Yves Saint Laurent. (Note: Lopez told
P/E officer that despite his marital status, Soberon is
gay. Lopez also mentioned that Castro refers to Soberon
in anger as "that little 'maricon'" -- a pejorative term
for homosexuals. Of course, Castro's abuse may be nothing

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more than a macho man's interpretation of Soberon's
refined mannerisms. End Note.)

Comment
--------------


12. (S) Soberon is not considered personally ambitious and
has no following among the general public. His loyalty
and non-threatening demeanor make him a useful tool of
Castro's. His progress towards meeting payment
commitments and boosting Cuba's hard currency reserves
have improved Cuba's reputation with some foreign
creditors. Corruption drives the Cuban economy and will
continue to do so (despite Castro's clean-up campaign) but
Soberon is as close as you get to the "face of fiscal
responsibility." His departure from the scene could open
the way for a GOC raid on its own reserves, with an
ensuing devaluation or even a run on the bank. Soberon is
therefore as relevant a figure in the Cuba of today as the
Cuba of tomorrow. He may one day find himself in the
position of guiding a slow and deliberate opening of the
Cuban economy. End Comment.


13. (U) Bio Note: Soberon was a student leader and
founder of the Union of Communist Youth (UJC). He served
in the army during the Cuban missile crisis, and
volunteered for several sugar cane harvests during the
60s. He holds an ambiguous degree in social sciences
(probably granted by the GOC) and has a background in
accounting. He began his professional career by working
at the Ministry of Foreign Trade (MINCEX) as an office
boy. Still in his early twenties, Soberon worked as a
commercial representative at Cuba's Foreign Trade Office
in Montreal. He joined the Communist Party in 1970. By
his early thirties he was deputy director of a state
shipping company, then lived six years in London as a
managing director of the Anglo-Caribbean Shipping Company
"ACEMEX" (he has written three books on shipping matters).
Soberon headed ACEMEX for twelve years before he was
tapped to head Cuba's National Bank in 1995 and the
Central Bank in 1997. Soberon eventually became a
delegate to the National Assembly, and was elected to the
Council of State in 2003. He is married. End Bio Note.
PARMLY