MDC INSIDER ON INTRA-PARTY NEGOTIATIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000095

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

AF/S FOR B. NEULING
SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR C. COURVILLE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/2015
TAGS: ASEC PGOV PHUM PREL ZI
SUBJECT: MDC INSIDER ON INTRA-PARTY NEGOTIATIONS

Classified By: Ambassador Christopher Dell for reasons 1.5 b/d

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Summary
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1. (C) MDC MP Tendai Biti, who has been negotiating with
Welshman Ncube,s faction on behalf of MDC President Morgan
Tsvangirai, told the Ambassador January 19 that he had

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prepared a document that would lead to an amicable MDC
&divorce.8 The Harare East MP said he had also prepared a
draft reconciliation agreement and with MDC President Morgan
Tsvangirai,s blessing had presented both documents to Ncube

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for consideration. On January 27, Biti told the Ambassador
he had yet to hear from Ncube and had concluded that an early
reconciliation was unlikely and that an amicable divorce
might also be on hold. He attributed the delay to the
growing pressures on the Ncube faction, including choosing a
president. Biti said he still believed that reconciliation
would occur in the long run and that he was rewriting the
party,s constitution to ease that process. End Summary.

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Divorce ) MDC Style
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2. (C) In a brief meeting with the Ambassador on January 19,
Biti said he and Ncube, both lawyers, had been set to argue
opposite sides of a court case earlier that week. When the
judge failed to show, the two negotiated a resolution of the
court case directly. They then turned to the MDC,s
intra-party wrangling, agreeing that it was past time to
agree on an amicable &divorce.8 Biti said he and Ncube
agreed on five elements: Tsvangirai,s faction would keep the
MDC name; both sides would keep whatever party assets they
currently controlled; cash on hand, including in a bank in
the U.K., would be divided evenly; the party headquarters in
Harare would go to Tsvangirai, in Bulawayo to Ncube,s
faction; and finally, Tsvangirai,s group would not seek
by-elections to oust MPs supporting Ncube.

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Door Number Two -- Reconciliation
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3. (C) Biti said that in the process of preparing the
&divorce8 settlement, he had started thinking about the
outlines of a possible reconciliation. Both factions still
agreed that the ZANU-PF government was the real enemy and
both were aware that their feud had cost the party support.
He had drawn up a second document, which contained the
elements of a potential reconciliation: Tsvangiari,s kitchen
cabinet would be removed -- which Biti said would likely
happen in any event; the top four leadership positions would
remain unchanged and uncontested (i.e. Gift Chimanikire would
be out but Ncube would remain as Secretary General); and both
factions would agree on a new constitution that would
acknowledge the president as party leader but that would vest
most authority in the National Council.

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Update: No Progress, Ncube Faction Under Duress
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4. (C) Biti said that with Tsvangirai,s blessing he had
presented both documents to Ncube the week of January 16.
According to Biti, Tsvangirai was hoping for an early
reconciliation, despite the difficulties he would have
reconciling with Ncube. In that regard, Biti noted the
reports that Ncube had received a government-allocated farm
had deeply troubled Tsvangirai and other MDC leaders. Biti
added that both documents were a &good deal8 for the Ncube

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faction. Biti said Ncube had promised to respond by the end
of the following week and Biti told the Ambassador that he
would brief us on the outcome immediately thereafter.


5. (C) In a subsequent meeting on January 27, Biti told the
Ambassador that Ncube had yet to respond to either document.
He interpreted the delay as a sign that an early
reconciliation was unlikely. The formal &divorce8 might
also not occur until after the two faction,s respective
congresses. Biti said part of the delay was likely the
result of the growing pressures on the Ncube faction. Biti
said the Ncube faction was splintering over the question of
who would be &party8 president. MDC Vice President Gibson
Sibanda and Chimaikire had both declared their interest.
Biti said he had actually been approached on behalf of the
faction by Isaac Maposa, the director of the Zimbabwe
Institute, the MDC,s think-tank in South Africa and offered
the faction,s presidency, which he had declined.

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New Constitution Long-Term Basis for Reconciliation
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6. (C) Biti said a longer-term reconciliation was still
possible. Biti said that he had been tasked with drafting
the new party constitution prior to the Tsvangirai-led party
congress and was working to create a document that could form
the foundation of an eventual reconciliation, possibly in the
run-up to the next national elections. Biti said the
starting point for his draft was an acknowledgement that the
old constitution needed to be updated to account from the
party,s growth, including especially defining the role of
MPs, mayors, and other elected officials.


7. (C) Biti said the new constitution also needed to help
resolve the disputes that led to the party,s unraveling by
making the MDC more internally democratic. As he had said at
our earlier meeting, this involved giving the National
Council greater authority while acknowledging the president
as head of the party. However, his draft also expanded the
"management8 committee, the highest regular structure in the
party,s executive, from the current &top six8 to 11 party
leaders. Biti said he was preparing to send the document to
the provincial structures for review and expected it to be
adopted at the mainstream Tsvangirai faction,s party
congress.

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Comment
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8. (C) A well-respected business lawyer who has been
privately critical of both Tsvangirai and Ncube in the past,
Biti has emerged as a central figure in the MDC endgame. He
has sided with Tsvangirai but has the trust and respect of
the Ncube faction. Perhaps more importantly, along with Roy
Bennett, David Coltart, and others he is part of a group of
MDC leaders that are disappointed with both sides and are
pushing to create a more democratic and more vigorous
opposition party that can eventually reunify and challenge
for power.


9. (C) The offer to Biti to become president of the Ncube
faction offers an insight into a central question that has
the power to seriously undermine the faction,s solidarity )
it,s presidency. The Sibanda-Chimaikire feud is out in the
open. However, the fact that Ncube favors neither is not.
As the senior official Sibanda believes he should be
president. However, he is an Ndebele (as is Ncube) and
conventional wisdom is that only a member of the majority
Shona ethnicity can lead a national party ) hence
Chimanikire,s challenge. However, Chimanikire is poorly

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regarded by one and all and we have heard rumors for some
time that Ncube is looking for an &acceptable8 Shona to
assume the presidency.


10. (C) Biti certainly would have fit the bill but is firmly
on Tsvangirai,s side as is businessman Strive Masiyiwa who
is also rumored to have been offered the faction,s
presidency. It is a measure of the faction,s weakness that
a month before its congress it is looking to Tsvangiari,s
supporters for a leader. University of Zimbabwe professor
and former mediator Brian Raftopolous told us late year
Tsvangirai needed a credible Ndebele second while Ncube

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needed a prominent Shona front man. Raftopolous predicted
Tsvangirai would have the easier time and with press accounts

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naming Bulawayo MP Thokozani Khupe as a possible vice
president, he appears to have been correct.
DELL