GEARING UP FOR AUGUST RURAL COUNCIL ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000908

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AF/S FOR H.SERVIN-BAEZ
SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR C. COURVILLE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2015
TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL ZI
SUBJECT: GEARING UP FOR AUGUST RURAL COUNCIL ELECTIONS

REF: A. REF A: HARARE 764


B. REF B: HARARE 610

Classified By: Ambassador Christopher Dell for reasons 1.5 b/d

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Summary
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1. (C) Zimbabwe Election Support Network (ZESN) chairperson
Reginald Matchaba-Hove told the Ambassador July 12 that ZESN
was planning to observe the local elections expected to be
held August 19. He said there were rumors the elections
might be delayed but there had been no official announcement
to that effect and he believed they were likely to go ahead
as planned, with the possible exception of the mayor,s race
in Mutare. Matchaba-Hove noted that ruling party succession
politics were dividing ZANU-PF, especially in Masvingo
province, and would have presented an opportunity for the MDC
absent its current division into competing factions. The
Ambassador congratulated Matchaba-Hove on his recent award
from the National Endowment for Democracy. Matchaba-Hove
said he had used his meeting with President Bush to endorse
current U.S. policy toward Zimbabwe, including especially
continued pressure on the Mugabe regime. End Summary.

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Local Elections Fast Approaching
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2. (C) Matchaba-Hove told the Ambassador that although the
government had yet to formally set the date for rural council
elections, ZESN believed that they would be held on August

19. Local Government Minister Chombo had publicly mentioned
the date earlier. He said mayoral elections in Chitungwiza,
Kadoma, and Mutare and parliamentary by-elections in Chikomba
and Rushinga to replace two ruling party MPs who recently
passed away were also expected to be held that day.
Matchaba-Hove acknowledged that there were rumors the
elections might be delayed but he believed them likely to go
ahead with the possible exception of Mutare, where ZANU-PF,s
unpopularity was such that the GOZ might instead opt for an
appointed commission (as in Harare) to run the city rather
than risk an embarrassing defeat.


3. (C) Matchaba-Hove said that ZESN expected to field about
100 observers nationwide. Coming off the heels of a
successful observation effort in the Budiriro by-election
(Ref B),ZESN planned to observe the mayoral and
parliamentary elections, as well as a sampling of rural
council elections, with a focus on Matabeleland and parts of
Masvingo. Training of the observers would commence shortly.
The Ambassador asked Matchaba-Hove to keep him apprised of
funding and training needs.

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What To Look For In The Elections
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4. (C) Matchaba-Hove said the ruling party had historically
dominated rural council elections, in part due to its
superior organization but also due to its ability to
manipulate food distribution, media coverage, and the voter
rolls in their favor. However, the government and ruling
party,s unpopularity were so great that in a free and fair
national election they would lose badly. Given this national
context the opposition could pull some surprises in the local
elections, especially in Masvingo province, where divisions
in the ruling party had been badly exacerbated by the
intra-party struggle to succeed Mugabe. For instance, the
recently formed United People's Party (Ref A) was really a

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ZANU-PF splinter and a potential home for Emmerson Mnangagwa
should he lose the succession struggle.


5. (C) Matchaba-Hove said the key in Masvingo and elsewhere
would be whether the two MDC factions could reach a modus
vivendi and not run candidates against each other. In that
regard, another key region to watch would be Matabeleland, an
MDC stronghold and the Mutambara faction,s home turf. The
Tsvangirai faction was planning on running candidates in the

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region and its performance would be an interesting indicator
of the two factions relative strength in the province. The
MDC,s divisions could also allow ZANU-PF to win races in
Mtabeleland. The ruling party actually won seats earlier
this year on the Bulawayo city council, the first time that
had happened in years.


6. (C) Matchaba-Hove said the MDC stood an even better
chance in the three mayoral elections. In Mutare, the
suspended MDC mayor had won the last election with over 80
percent of the vote, hence the attraction for the government
of appointing a commission instead. However, he said the
ruling party was likely to retain the two parliamentary seats
up for grabs. Both were rural constituencies that ZANU-PF
has dominated politically.

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Democracy Award, Oval Office Visit
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7. (C) The Ambassador also took the opportunity to
congratulate Matchaba-Hove for recently receiving the
Democracy Award for the National Endowment for Democracy and
to ask about his meeting with the President and other
officials in Washington. Matchaba-Hove replied that he was
proud to have discussed Zimbabwe with the President. He told
the President that the USG's dual pronged approach of
isolating the regime, while simultaneously helping the people
of Zimbabwe through food and HIV/AIDS assistance was the
right approach and that it was working.

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Comment
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8. (C) A worthy recipient of the Democracy Award,
Matchaba-Hove's analysis of the import of the rural council
elections is spot on. The fracture within the MDC has
captured the headlines but the increasingly visible split
within the ruling party is perhaps even more important. The
emergence of ZANU-PF splinter parties that carry the
ambitions of rivals within the succession battle combined
with the abysmal economy presents a real opening for the
MDC,s two factions. Whether they can take advantage of that
opening and post historic wins in rural areas may depend on
their ability to mute their mutual hostility and focus their
combined efforts on their common enemy. In that regard,
Tsvangirai,s strong July 13 statement condemning the attack

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on pro-Senate MP Trudy Stevenson, carried in the independent
press, was a positive development.
DELL