Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06HARARE702
2006-06-14 11:29:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Harare
Cable title:  

TSVANGIRAI ON EUROPE TRIP, NEXT STEPS

Tags:  PGOV PREL ASEC PHUM EAID ZI 
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RUEPGBA/CDR USEUCOM INTEL VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ23-CH/ECJ5M//
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000702 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

AF/S FOR B. NEULING
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR C. COURVILLE
AFR/SA FOR E. LOKEN
COMMERCE FOR BECKY ERKUL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2011
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC PHUM EAID ZI
SUBJECT: TSVANGIRAI ON EUROPE TRIP, NEXT STEPS


Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i., Eric T. Schultz under Section 1

------
Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000702

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

AF/S FOR B. NEULING
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR C. COURVILLE
AFR/SA FOR E. LOKEN
COMMERCE FOR BECKY ERKUL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2011
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC PHUM EAID ZI
SUBJECT: TSVANGIRAI ON EUROPE TRIP, NEXT STEPS


Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i., Eric T. Schultz under Section 1

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) In a June 11 meeting with the Charge, MDC anti-senate
faction President Morgan Tsvangirai said he made important
progress in refurbishing the faction's relationships with
donors and the diaspora during a European tour earlier in the
month. The opposition leader reiterated the faction's
commitment to what he saw as mutually reinforcing strategies
of contesting elections and pressing the regime with
non-violent civil resistance. Rebuffing criticism from MDC
MP David Coltart over intra-party violence, he attributed
violence in Zimbabwe to a culture of ruling party oppression
and the absence of rule of law. End summary.

--------------
Europe Tour a Success
--------------


2. (C) Tsvangirai cast his tour of the UK, Sweden, Denark,
Norway, Holland and Belgium as largely successful.
Principally, his faction overcame "demonization" efforts by
the rival pro-senate faction and ZANU-PF and allayed concerns
at foreign ministries and among NGO partners about
intra-party violence. He said the faction also built
important relationships with the diaspora, including at two
energetic and well-attended rallies in the UK.


3. (C) Tsvangirai said his engagement with audiences in
Europe revolved largely around his faction's refurbishment in
the wake of factional splintering last October. In this
regard, he highlighted three "benchmarks" that indicated the
anti-senate faction's vitality: a successful Congress,
productive post-Congress planning and restructuring, and the
Budiriro by-election victory. He agreed with the Charge that
the faction had "held serve" in Budiriro, where it was under
considerable pressure to retain its own seat. Other themes
he pursued with European audiences included the country's
economic meltdown and the need for continued resoluteness by

the international community against the regime.


4. (C) The former labor leader said that many Europeans,
notably the Norwegians and the Dutch, were skeptical,
especially about the impact of the splintering. "If the MDC
couldn't dislodge ZANU-PF united, how can it do so divided?
Can't ZANU-PF players be enticed to the democratic side? Why
shouldn't we support both factions? Haven't we heard this
action plan all before?" In response, Tsvangirai said he
acknowledged that the faction's roadmap echoed action plans
of the past but it had learned from its experiences and its
performance would improve. He had no problem with a
multiplicity of parties but stressed that co-existence with
the pro-Senate faction did not imply cooperation for the time
being. For now, reflecting the popular will, his faction
would continue its focus on ZANU-PF. In that regard, he said
time was on the opposition's side in view of the ruling
party's propensity for unpopular and self-destructive
policies.

--------------
Fund-raising, Budget, Action Priorities
--------------


5. (C) Responding to the Charge's queries on fund-raising,
Tsvangirai maintained that the trip had been "very useful,

SIPDIS
very timely" with European donors and the diaspora. He

HARARE 00000702 002 OF 003


elaborated that donors, particularly the Nordics, seemed
inclined to support the faction's activities in the long
term, but short-term funds remained a challenge. He agreed
with the Charge that faction treasurer Roy Bennett's presence
in South Africa, where he has applied for asylum, was a
powerful potential asset for the faction with the diaspora.


6. (C) Tsvangirai continued that the faction was revisiting
its budget priorities. Specifically, it would revise its
budget to focus more on the short-term -- the next three to
four months. The budget reprioritization would seek to
advance a series of objectives in this context: identify
weaknesses in regime pillars of support; rejuvenate local
structures/activities; engage with civic society,
particularly with view to a church-convened meeting of
democratic forces; pursue mobilization strategies; advance a
communications strategy; develop action plan for civil
resistance; establish program of outreach/negotiation with
President Mugabe.

-------------- --
Elections and Civil Action Mutually Reinforcing
-------------- --


7. (C) Queried by the Charge about perceptions that the
faction was steering from a pledged "winter of discontent" to
an election-oriented path to power, Tsvangirai stressed that
the party remained firmly committed to an activist platform.
He said that the faction's roadmap called for mutually
reinforcing prongs of election participation and non-violent
public pressure for change. Importantly, elections were part
of the resistance campaign in offering the opposition a
mobilization venue and giving voice to popular
dissatisfaction with the regime. Similarly, the numerous and
regular public rallies he had been holding had also been part
of the partyQ,s Q&resistance.Q8


8. (C) Tsvangirai reported that the party was conducting
rallies relentlessly, and expected to have completed rallies
in all 120 constituencies within the next two to three weeks.
The rallies were important confidence-building exercises
that developed momentum for more forceful action later. He
himself would spend the next weekend engaged in "constituency
exchanges" in Bulawayo's seven constituencies. Involving
more give-and-take than rallies, the exchanges would serve to
solidify the faction's rapport and credentials in
Matabeleland, one of the MDC's traditional strongholds.

--------------
Response to Coltart
--------------


9. (C) In response to the Charge's inquiry about MDC MP David
Coltart's charges that intra-party violence had been directed
by some within the anti-senate faction, Tsvangirai said the
party had no institutional mechanisms to pursue violence and
was itself the principal victim of political violence in
Zimbabwe. Political violence existed in Zimbabwe because of
state-sponsored violence against his party and had been
exacerbated by the break down of the rule of law.


10. (C) Tsvangirai added that Coltart's accountability
themes were ironic in view of his own failure to account for
much of the donor funds for the party that Coltart had
received before the MDC splintered. Tsvangirai also said
Coltart had been with the Mutambara faction "from the start"
and should no longer pretend to be an impartial arbiter
between the factions. He asserted that Coltart was trying to
provoke a self-serving public debate into which he refused to

HARARE 00000702 003 OF 003


be drawn. In that regard, he agreed with the Charge that
prolonged public internecine combat between the two factions
would only play into ZANU-PF's hands.

--------------
Comment
--------------


11. (C) Tsvangirai's faction appears to be developing
momentum, primarily through the successful series of rallies
it has held, and has strengthened its position in the past
three months vis-Q-vis both its rival faction and the ruling
party. Given that momentum and the continuing meltdown of
the economy, Tsvangirai seems in no hurry to launch overt
anti-regime actions. While he may be concerned about the
appearance of not delivering on earlier pledges to take such
action, this course may prove wiser in the long run. Indeed,
among those most interested in goading him into premature
action may be the ruling party itself, which might prefer to
see polarizing incidents it can control -- for now -- before
pressures build to more unmanageable levels.
SCHULTZ