FLAGGING PRO-SENATE MDC FACTION WRITES OFF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000698

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

AF/S FOR B. NEULING
SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR C. COURVILLE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/13/2015
TAGS: ASEC PGOV PHUM PREL ZI
SUBJECT: FLAGGING PRO-SENATE MDC FACTION WRITES OFF
ELECTORAL LOSS, REQUESTS USG HELP

REF: REFTEL: HARARE 610

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i., Eric T. Schultz under Section 1
.4 b/d

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Summary
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1. (C) MDC pro-Senate faction leaders on June 6 outlined
their plans for the immediate future to emboffs, especially
including outreach to the Embassy and a possible trip to the
United States by the faction's president. Pro-Senate faction
Secretary General Welshman Ncube and deputy Secretary General

SIPDIS
Priscilla Musihairambwi-Mushonga also asked for US Government
assistance. Deputy Treasurer Mariam Mushayi dismissed the
faction's recent electoral loss (reftel) and described plans
to contest rural council elections scheduled for August.
Vice President Gibson Sibanda, the senior faction leader
present, appeared to be only a shadow of his former self.
End Summary.

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Faction Seeks USG Assistance, Broaches U.S. Trip
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2. (C) Ncube and Musihairambwi-Mushonga in a meeting with
USAID Country Director and democracy and governance officer
on June 6 stressed the faction's interest in refurbishing
relations with the USG. At an Embassy-sponsored reception
for the pro-Senate faction later that night, Ncube and
Musihairambwi-Mushonga were uncharacteristically jovial with
Embassy staff. Their congenial posture contrasts with
complaints from pro-Senate faction leaders to Embassy
personnel and to political analysts over the past few months
that the USG had favored the anti-senate faction at their
exclusion.


3. (C) Ncube and Musihairambwi-Mushonga in their meeting
with USAID personnel requested US assistance to strengthen
the pro-Senate faction's institutions. Alleging that the
anti-Senate faction had taken all of their equipment, they
requested computers and office supplies in addition to
publicity training. (N.B. The anti-Senate faction told us
months ago that Ncube and his supporters had taken the bulk
of the equipment.) Ncube also asked for assistance with
voter education and noted that they were prepared to conduct
their own voter awareness campaign when the USAID officials
asked about their level of coordination with existing
electoral NGOs.


4. (C) The pro-Senate leaders also stated that faction
president Arthur Mutambara and pro-Senate-leaning MP David
Coltart were planning a trip to the US beginning on July 7
and requested plane tickets for two unnamed additional
participants (N.B. Presumably Ncube and
Musihairambwi-Mushonga).

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Writing Off Budiriro Loss, Looking Toward Rural Election
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5. (C) At the Embassy-sponsored reception for the pro-Senate
faction also on June 6, Deputy Treasurer Mushayi dismissed
the faction's performance in the Budiriro parliamentary
by-election last month where their candidate garnered only 4
percent of the vote. Mushayi said the faction never expected
to win in the Tsvangirai stronghold. Mushayi, who organized
logistics for the campaign, said that the faction merely
intended to test the waters in the Harare high-density suburb

HARARE 00000698 002 OF 002


and assess the faction's strengths and weaknesses.


6. (C) The faction would contest the rural council elections
scheduled for August, according to Mushayi. She said the
faction had developed a rural strategy that had the
leadership conducting rallies and meetings in supporter's
homes. Nkayi MP Abednico Bhebhe added that he recently held
rallies in all 26 wards of his rural constituency. Although
not specifically aimed toward the upcoming elections, Bhebhe
noted that the rallies were an important grassroots-building
exercise for the faction. Both Mushayi and Bhebhe said that
good rains had produced an ample harvest that would lessen
the rural areas' dependency on government and free them for
more independent political action.

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Sibanda on the Sidelines
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7. (C) Sibanda, the faction's senior-most leader at the
event, made a few disjointed remarks wishing well Embassy
staffers who were leaving this summer, but otherwise stayed
on the discussion's sidelines. Sibanda spoke at length to
econoff about his family situation and bemoaned the passing
of his wife, Ntombizodwa, on Christmas Eve 2003. (N.B.
Numerous contacts have commented on Sibanda's physical and
mental deterioration since his wife's passing. Indeed, many
in the anti-Senate camp attribute Sibanda's presence in the
other faction to this decline.)

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Comment
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8. (C) The pro-senate faction is unlikely to do
significantly better in rural council elections than it did
in Budiriro. The faction has signally failed to develop any
grass roots support, especially in comparison with the
anti-Senate faction, which has attracted thousands of
supporters to Morgan Tsvangiari,s recent series of rallies.
The pro-Senate faction has also begun to see increasing
desertions and many local commentators are openly speculating
on its shelf life. This has to come as a disappointment to
ZANU-PF, which had hoped to use the pro-Senate faction to
diminish Tsvangirai,s stature. It also likely comes as a
disappointment to some of the factions more outspoken
external supporters, including the South Africans and some of
our European friends. We find it interesting but
unsurprising that at this juncture Ncube and his faction
would turn to the international community, including the
U.S., for financial support needed to keep their fading
prospects alive.
SCHULTZ