ANTI-SENATE MDC FACTION WINS PARLIAMENTARY

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 000610

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

AF/S FOR B. NEULING
SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR C. COURVILLE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/2015
TAGS: ASEC PREL PGOV ZI
SUBJECT: ANTI-SENATE MDC FACTION WINS PARLIAMENTARY
BY-ELECTION


Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i., Eric T. Schultz under Section 1
.4 b/d

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) The anti-Senate MDC faction candidate, Emmanuel
Chisvuure, successfully defended the Budiriro constituency in
a by-election held on May 20. The seat was vacant as a
result of the February death of MDC M.P. Gilbert Shoko. In a
tally confirmed by an independent election observing body,
Chisvuure won 64 percent of the vote and the ruling ZANU-PF
party candidate garnered 32 percent. The pro-Senate MDC
candidate managed only 4 percent of the vote, a major setback
for the fledgling party in its first foray into national
electoral politics. The Harare high-density suburb was
generally peaceful during the campaign and on election day,
marred only by sporadic acts of violence and by the brief
detention of the pro-Senate MDC leader Arthur Mutambara and
his candidate. End summary.

--------------
Tsvangirai's MDC Holds Seat

SIPDIS
--------------


2. (SBU) Results released by the Zimbabwe Electoral
Commission (ZEC) and confirmed by parallel vote counts
conducted by the independent Zimbabwe Election Support
Network (ZESN) and the anti-Senate MDC show that anti-Senate
MDC candidate Chisvuure received 7,949 votes, almost twice
that of the other two competitors. Chisvuure was the
campaign manager for Shoko when the latter won the seat in
the March 2005 parliamentary elections. Significantly,
Shoko, who had remained loyal to MDC President Tsvangirai
during the recent party split, had garnered 17,053 votes last
March.


3. (SBU) The largely unknown ZANU-PF candidate, Jeremiah
Bvirindi, got 3,961 votes as compared to 4,886 for the
ZANU-PF candidate last March. The pro-Senate MDC candidate,
Gabriel Chaibva, who lives outside of Budiriro, was the
day,s big loser, winning only 504 votes. Voter turnout was
26 percent, well below last March, but according to ZESN
officials, typical for a by-election. The anti-Senate
faction of the MDC and ZESN both had observers at all 24
polling stations and at the constituency counting center to
monitor the final tabulation.


4. (SBU) Full statistics are not yet available, but ZESN
estimates that approximately 2,500 would-be voters were
turned away at the polling stations. The chief reason for
these turn-aways appears to be a change in the electoral law
last year that forbids the use of driver's licenses as proof
of identification. ZESN officials noted that most voters
appeared to be unaware of this change and said that it would
alert ZEC to the need to conduct better voter education in
the future.

--------------
Generally Calm Election
--------------


5. (SBU) Observers from ZESN and western Embassies in Harare
) including one accredited observer from post ) reported
relative calm on election day, with voters progressing
smoothly through polls and electoral agents generally acting
professionally. In a briefing to the diplomatic community on
May 22, ZESN Chairperson Reginald Matchaba-Hove reported only
one violent incident on election day, when MDC supporters

allegedly assaulted four ZANU-PF supporters near a polling
station. Police also arrested an apparent ZANU-PF supporter
who was caught with a bag of fraudulent ballots.


6. (SBU) The campaign period was also generally peaceful,
but Matchaba-Hove noted that supporters of the anti-Senate
MDC candidate had engaged in some "petty thuggery," including
vandalism of four homes belonging to ZANU-PF supporters and
the assault of ZANU-PF supporters who attended anti-Senate
MDC rallies. A Japanese diplomat who attended Tsvangirai's
rally in Budiriro on May 14 was also surrounded, shoved, and
threatened by anti-Senate youths who reportedly believed the
diplomat was Chinese.


7. (SBU) The three candidates were generally allowed to
conduct rallies. However, in an incident that attracted
widespread media attention but had no impact on the election
results, police arrested pro-Senate leader Mutambara along
with Chaibva and dozens of other party members on May 19 for
allegedly campaigning without permission. The pro-Senate
organizers were released later that day, but have been
ordered to return to court on May 22.

--------------
Comment
--------------


8. (C) The anti-senate MDC probably had the most at stake in
the by-election. A loss to ZANU-PF in what it considered a
&safe8 seat would have been a sharp setback. Although it
dodged that bullet and for the first time successfully
conducted a parallel vote count, Tsvangirai and his
supporters have to be disappointed with the relatively low
voter turnout, which clearly points to voter apathy as a
major obstacle to their efforts to press for political and
economic change.


9. (C) That said, ZANU-PF also has to be disappointed with
the results. The ZANU-PF candidate's defeat came despite
Mugabe's personal appearance in the district two days before
the election. Moreover, a ZANU-PF victory in an MDC
stronghold would have justified the party,s campaign bravado
that the MDC was "doomed." However, the most disappointed
party has to be the pro-Senate faction of the MDC, which took
a significant hit to its legitimacy. Its meager showing will
further marginalize the faction, which has largely failed to
attract popular support and which has begun to bleed
supporters in recent months. The faction has yet to be heard
from publicly following the election and will have a
difficult time spinning the results as anything other than a
disaster.


10. (C) Arguably the best showing in the by-election was put
in by ZESN, which dramatically improved its performance from
last March and emerged from the by-election both stronger and
more independent. ZESN also successfully conducted a
parallel vote count for the first time. Moreover, its public
and private statements were timely and firm, including
forthright condemnation of opposition-led violence.
SCHULTZ