FORMER STUDENT LEADER EMERGES AS PRO-SENATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000215

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

AF/S FOR B. NEULING
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR C. COURVILLE
USAID/AFR/SA FOR E. LOKEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL ZI MDC
SUBJECT: FORMER STUDENT LEADER EMERGES AS PRO-SENATE
FACTION LEADERSHIP CANDIDATE

REF: A. HARARE 95


B. 2004 PRETORIA 1865 (NOTAL)

Classified By: Ambassador Christopher Dell for reasons 1.5 b/d

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Summary
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1. (C) On February 19, former student leader Arthur
Mutambara, who now resides in South Africa, announced his
decision to run for president of the pro-senate faction of
the MDC. A number of pro-senate MDC MPs expressed strong
support for Mutambara and said he would breathe new life into
the party, especially since he was not involved in the MDC
split. One pro-senate MP speculated that he could reunify
the party because of the level of support for him from both
factions. The pro-boycott faction of the MDC has been silent
on Mutambara. End summary.

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Mutambara Vies for Pro-senate Leadership
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2. (U) On February 19, former University of Zimbabwe student
leader Arthur Mutambara arrived in Zimbabwe to announce his
intention to run for president of the pro-senate faction of
the MDC. Mutambara would compete for the presidency against
deputy secretary general Gift Chimanikire at the pro-senate
faction's congress scheduled for February 25-26 in Bulawayo.
Mutambara, a Rhodes scholar who holds a PhD in Robotics from
Oxford University, has been living in South Africa where he
is the managing director of Africa Technology and Business
Institute. Mutambara is best known in Zimbabwe for leading
student protests against government corruption in the late
1980s as president of the University of Zimbabwe's Student
Representative Council. He was reportedly involved in
discussions in 2004 about a breakaway party associated with
Ncube that never came to fruition (ref B). In a February 20
press statement explaining his decision, Mutambara said that
it was the duty of Zimbabwean citizens to develop solutions
to th
e country's problems. He said that to achieve reunification
the MDC required an "infusion of new leadership, untainted by
current disagreements."

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Strong Support for Mutambara
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3. (C) MDC pro-senate faction MP and parliamentary
spokesperson Priscilla Misihairabwi-Mushonga told poloff on
February 22 that Mutambara had a lot of support at all levels
of the party, from ordinary citizens, and from civil society,
and would likely win the presidency of the faction. (NB:
Embassy local staff report that among people living in high
density areas of Harare the news was overshadowed by reports
that the GOZ had released to the pro-senate faction MDC's
share of funds provided to political parties.) According to
Mushonga, Gift Chimanikire, who had been planning to run for
the presidency, was rethinking his position. Although at one
time he was the only likely candidate, Chimanikire did not
have enough grass roots support and would likely back down
from running against Mutambara on the advice of other
pro-senate faction leaders. Mushonga was confident
Chimanikire would come around and ultimately support
Mutambara.


4. (C) Mushonga said that since the announcement the
pro-senate faction had been inundated with calls from
individuals who had not been planning to attend the faction's
congress and were now enthusiastic to do so. Countering
statements made in the Government-sponsored Herald newspaper
criticizing Mutambara for having been out of the country for
more than a decade, she said that his experience dealing with
other parts of Africa would be an asset to the MDC, as he
could apply lessons learned from those experiences to the
situation in Zimbabwe. Mutambara represented a fresh
infusion into a party full of leaders who had been around
since 1999 and who needed a new perspective. Her main
concern was that there would be high expectations for him to
achieve much in the immediate future when he would need to be
settle in and get to know the party. In an e-mail praising
Mutambara on February 20, previously faction-neutral MP David
Coltart emphasized that Mutambara was untainted by the split
and said that Mutambara w
as "one of Zimbabwe's brightest sons."

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Effect on MDC Split
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5. (C) Mushonga said that Mutambara's election would attract
leaders from the pro-boycott faction to his side. Mushonga
said that ordinary citizens who had been disappointed and
discouraged by the split in the MDC were now energized. In
an e-mail on February 20, pro-senate faction MP Trudy
Stevenson said that Zimbabweans had found this renewed energy
because a prominent countryman was returning home. She said
his return would persuade others in the diaspora to return.
For its part, the Tsvangirai-led pro-boycott faction has been
surprisingly silent on Mutambara's reentry into Zimbabwean
politics.

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Bio Note
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6. (U) Mutambara is currently Managing Director of Africa
Technology and Business Institute, a professional advisory
services firm operating in 13 African countries; a Principal
Consultant with MAC Consulting; and Professor of Operations
Management with the School of Business Leadership at the
University of South Africa. Prior to that he held positions
as Director of Payments at Standard Bank in South Africa
(2002-2003) and Management Consultant at McKinsey and Company
in Chicago. Mutambara was a visiting research fellow or
scientist at MIT (1999-2000),Carnegie Mellon's Robotics
Institute (1998),NASA (1996-1997),and Florida State
University (1995-1997). Mutambara was awarded both Rhodes
and Fulbright scholarships (1991). He holds a PhD in
Robotics and Megatronics from Oxford University (1995),a
Master of Science in Electrical Engineering and Computer
Engineering from Oxford (1992),and a Bachelor of Science in
Electrical and Electronic Engineering from the University of
Zimbabwe (1990).

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Comment
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7. (C) In a likely contest with Chimanikire for president of
the MDC's pro-senate faction, Mutambara is the odds on
favorite. The transplanted intellectual appears to be
Welshman Ncube's anointed candidate as an alternative to the
uninspiring and not well-regarded Chimanikire, after Tendai
Biti turned down overtures from the pro-senate faction (ref
A). Apparently confident of Ncube's ability to deliver a
victory, we understand that Mutambara has returned to his
home in South Africa. Mutambara might indeed possess the
charisma to bring more popular support and breathe new life
into the squabbling pro-senate faction, at least in the short
term. His appeal, however, lies principally with Zimbabwe's
dwindling middle class, and his ability to connect with the
more numerous low-income masses is untested at this point.
Also, as an exile returning home from years abroad, he may
have difficulty proving his commitment to some
constituencies--although his resume credentials as a former
student leader hold out some
room for optimism. His chemistry with Ncube, who remains
the key intellectual force in the pro-senate faction, is
another key, unknown variable that will likely be a decisive
factor in determining his effectiveness. Today's
state-controlled Herald featured a cartoon of Morgan
Tsvangirai in a Union Jack hat being symbolically booted out

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in favor of a Stars-and-Stripes-clad Mutambara, an
interesting analysis suggestive of a possible ZANU-PF line of
attack against him. End comment.
DELL