MUGABE AT 82 - RIGID, DEFIANT, ISOLATED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 000200

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

AF/S FOR B. NEULING
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR C. COURVILLE
AFR/SA FOR E. LOKEN
COMMERCE FOR BECKY ERKUL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2011
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON PINR KPAO ZI
SUBJECT: MUGABE AT 82 - RIGID, DEFIANT, ISOLATED

REF: (A) HARARE 178 (B) 04 HARARE 882

Classified By: Ambassador Christopher Dell under Section 1.4 b/d

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Summary
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1. (SBU) In a taped, edited 90-minute state media interview
televised locally on Febuary 19, Robert Mugabe sounded
familiar anti-western themes and evidenced little inclination
to countenance economic or political reforms on the eve of
his 82nd birthday. He was familiarly cagey about the process
of succession and said nothing about the identity of a likely
successor. He struck out against customary perceived enemies
inside and outside the country - the MDC, the West, the IMF,
"cowardly" Africans who refused to stand up to the West, and
corrupt officialdom. Citing Zimbabwe's purportedly unique
challenges of putative western sanctions and drought, Mugabe
said the GOZ would continue to print money as necessary
despite hyperinflation and put down cabinet ministers who
advocated "textbook economics." End summary.

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Succession When the Time Comes
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2. (SBU) Responding to sometimes probing but presumably
pre-cleared questions from a state media interlocutor, Mugabe
said his party would rise to the challenge of choosing a
successor "when the moment has come". He stresse that
leadership had to come from open processesin a party
congress (N.B. the next of which is pesently scheduled after
the next presidential elction) - not from "clandestine
meetings". He aded that protection of his legacy required
the culivation of a "vanguard of cadres willing to defend
the gains of the liberation struggle" but said nthing about
potential successors.

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Contempt for Opposition
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3. (SBU) Mugabe was typically contmptuous of the opposition
MDC but reiterated hisacceptance of a multi-party system.
He portrayedthe MDC as "erstwhile cronies of the UK", which
till aspired to govern Zimbabwe "by remote control. The
opposition continued to be aligned with th white community
here in "opposing nationalism i every way possible." Asked
why he didn't kick he MDC delegation out of parliament,
Mugabe allowed that some were sufficiently compatible and
could work for the improvement of the country. (Comment:
Some read this as an explicit reference to pro-Senate faction
leader Welshman Ncube, which may come back to haunt Ncube
down the line.) The rest should learn from some in the West
how to be a constructive opposition rather than try to
advance the West's agenda of regime change.

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Contempt for West
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4. (SBU) Portraying Zimbabwe's adversarial relationship with
the West in familiar terms, Mugabe suggested his willingness
to engage the West but claimed that the UK Prime Minister
Blair, backed by President Bush, remained obsessed with
regime change. He meandered into a lengthy diatribe about
the "nature of westerners," as manifested by purported
genocide or abuse of native Americans, African slaves,

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Aborigines, Palestinians, etc. He claimed that the West and
the United States had "never supported" Zimbabwe "from the
day or independence" and were now subverting the IMF to
unprecedentedly push a political agenda in Zimbabwe.
Interestingly, when asked about his Look East policy, Mugabe
cryptically responded that looking eastward on a globe
eventually reaches to the West, and in any event did not
elaborate on the promise of relations with China, Iran and
others as has been his custom in recent years.

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Contempt for IMF
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5. (SBU) Mugabe continued that the IMF similarly had "never
worked in Zimbabwe's interest"; Zimbabwe had paid off IMF
arrears to "be done with it" and would pay off remaining
arrears "in due course." He complained that the West's
turning of Zimbabwe's "neighbors" against it had prevented
Zimbabwe from borrowing available resources in the region
(N.B. an apparent reference to his failed loan negotiations
with South Africa) to pay the arrears so the country had to
sacrifice scarce domestic resources to pay.

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Contempt for Regional "Cowards"
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6. (SBU) Reacting to the interviewer's reference to outside
attempts - South African President Mbeki's, Nigerian
President Obasanjo's, the AU's, the Commonwealth Troika's) -
to facilitate domestic dialogue, Mugabe warned "outsiders" to
"keep away" and insinuated such attempts were secretly
prodded by Tony Blair with malign intent. Mugabe blasted
other African leaders for "cowardly" not standing up for
Zimbabwe against the West. He complained that African
observers of Zimbabwe's 2005 parliamentary elections, for
example, were uniformly satisfied with the elections'
freeness and fairness but had failed to say "go to Hell!" in
response to the West's condemnation.

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Contempt for "Bookish" Economics
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7. (SBU) Mugabe offered a surreal defense of his
government's economic policies. He claimed that laws of
supply and demand were merely "guidelines" that in any event
no longer applied in Zimbabwe's situation. Uniquely
challenged by sanctions and drought, he continued, Zimbabwe
inevitably suffered from contracting production and declining
revenues. Printing money was the only way to avert
starvation under the circumstances. He complained of a
presence in the private sector of "neutral" elements who
cared more about making money than about the nation and
thwarted economic planning. In any event, his government
would continue "people-oriented" economics over defeatist
"bookish" approaches, and he criticized Finance Minister
Murerwa and Justice Minister Chinamasa for advocating the
latter.

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Disappointment in Cabinet
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8. (SBU) Mugabe elaborated that he was to a great extent
disappointed in his so-called "development cabinet". He
claimed that poor planning and "self-seeking" behavior among
many ministers had compromised agricultural productivity,

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even though the government purportedly had sufficient money
and materials for the sector. On the mining sector, citing
figures recently conveyed by RBZ Governor to the Ambassador
(ref A),Mugabe complained about "leakages" in official
production owing to "insufficient supervision." When "our
enemies" abandoned facilities in the manufacturing sector, he
continued, the government failed to make available adequate
resources to assure their continued productivity. Mugabe
bemoaned corruption and a decay in the nation's moral fiber
from top levels of government down. Asked why he did not
sack non-performing ministers, Mugabe suggested he might in
the near future.

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Looking His Age...
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9. (C) In his first extended public interview since his
disastrous SkyNews interview in May 2004 (ref B),Mugabe
seemed prepared and did not hesitate in responding to any
questions. However, he was often rambling and disjointed, at
least once bordering on incoherent. He slouched
uncomfortably in his chair at times and appeared fatigued,
albeit engaged, thoughout.

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State Media Succession Comment
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10. (SBU) In reporting Mugabe's comments on succession, the
GOZ's Herald newspaper clarified that "clandestine meetings"
referred to the so-called Tsholotsho gathering in which then
Information Minister (now independent MP) Jonathan Moyo
purportedly led a group in attempting to supplant a
Mugabe-sanctioned party leadership for the upcoming party
congress. Interestingly, the newspaper did not mention
former Mugabe heir apparent Emmerson Mnangagwa, head of the
faction generally viewed as behind the Tsholotsho meeting.
(Comment: We took Mugabe's reference to be a warning against
discussing succession without his knowledge and not
necessarily a rebuke of Mnangagwa.) The newspaper identified
three succession process scenarios it reported Justice
Minister Chinamasa had described: (1) consolidation of
presidential and parliamentary elections in 2008, (2)
parliamentary selection of a President to serve from
2008-2010, presumably with consolidated elections in 2010,
and (3) election of a President to a seven-year term in 2008,
with consolidated elections beginning in 2015.

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A Nation "Celebrates"
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11. (SBU) Mugabe's interview kicked off a week-long
stage-managed national "celebration" of his 82nd birthday on
February 21. State newspapers have been overflowing with
accolades of the President in advertisements from private
firms, parastatals and ministries. His picture is everywhere
and the state airwaves and print media detail every
minister's glowing comment about the nation's founding
leader. Each province reportedly will host a party in his
honor, with a national celebration planned for Mutare at a
reported cost of Z$10 billion (about (US$65,000).
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Comment
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12. (C) The interview reveals a lonely leader increasingly
alienated from a surrounding world over which he has ever

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dwindling influence and more distorted perceptions. His
exposition had nearly everybody now in a mistrusted camp
arrayed against him, with South Africa and many in his own
cabinet the latest apparent additions. His continued
evasions about succession suggest his unease about any
successor's ability to hold the party together and "protect
his legacy." Responding to the interviewer's final question
as to what his birthday wish was, Mugabe said he hoped to be
around another 82 years - a perhaps telling indicator of his
unwillingness to depart his stage for the foreseeable future.


13. (C) And yet to every Zimbabwean who expects to survive
Mugabe - and who doesn't - the interview only underscored the
country's need to get past a man whose gaze is only backward.
Most in the party's upper echelons know their future with
Mugabe is limited, whether they fall victim to Mugabe's
expected cabinet dismissals or simply lose their place in a
crumbling patronage system. A growing number see potential
salvation in the West and "bookish" economics; even as they
fawn over the President for his birthday, they are planning
and posturing for a post-Mugabe world they know will be
different. The interview magnified the Mugabe malignancy to
the country but a central dilemma remains for the ruling
party elite and, indeed, for all Zimbabweans: wait him out or
work to hasten his departure? Each path holds peril for
most.

DELL