LAURIE ON POLITBURO SHIFT ON WEST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000186

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

AF/S FOR B. NEULING
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR C. COURVILLE
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR M. COPSON AND E.LOKEN
TREASURY FOR J. RALYEA AND B. CUSHMAN
COMMERCE FOR BECKY ERKUL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/12/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON ZI
SUBJECT: LAURIE ON POLITBURO SHIFT ON WEST

REF: HARARE 165

Classified By: Ambassador Christopher Dell under Section 1.4 b/d

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Summary
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1. (C) John Laurie, a former leading post-independence
businessman and parliamentarian who maintains regular contact
with a Politburo member and has a personal relationship with
Mugabe, relayed to econoff on Feburary 8 that the Politburo
recognized the accelerating pace of economic deterioration
and conceded it was time for rapprochement with the West. He
maintained that Mugabe felt politically secure but wanted to
exit with a measure of pride. Laurie appealed to the USG to
take advantage of Mugabe's posture and Zimbabwe's economic
weakness and work with GOZ moderates on re-engagement. End
Summary

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Politburo Shift
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2. (C) Laurie described his recent encounters with a member
of the Politburo, with whom he maintains regular contact (and
whom we assume to be Kantibai Patel based on references to
his Indian ethnicity),and with President Mugabe. The
ZANU-PF official told Laurie that Politburo consensus was
that accelerating economic decline left no alternative to
negotiations with the West. The Politburo wanted the
Minister of Foreign Affairs to conduct high-level meetings in
Washington. Failing that, negotiations would have to occur
at the ambassadorial level. In Laurie's words, there was a
feeling of "semi-desperation" in Politburo circles. Laurie
inquired if Ambassador Dell was open to negotiations.
Econoff replied that any improvement in bilateral relations
would hinge on the GOZ's willingness to recognize that
comprehensive political and economic reforms would have to be
a condition of dialogue.

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Insight into Mugabe
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3. (C) As a confidant of the late First Lady Sally Mugabe,
Laurie takes part in commemorative services at Heroes' Acre
on the January 27 anniversary of her death. This year he was
one of about 20 guests (half of them Roman Catholic nuns) to
accompany Mugabe to State House after the commemoration. He
said that, contrary to some press reports, Mugabe did not
break down at the gravesite, but, as has been the case every
year, he appeared deeply moved on the occasion. Sitting to
Mugabe,s immediate right at State House, Laurie commented
that Mugabe had aged considerably since they last spoke about
eight months ago, and appeared "more stressed than ever."
Bidding farewell after a two-hour breakfast during which
Mugabe was frequently interrupted by aides, Laurie said he
would like to have a meeting him; Mugabe welcomed the
suggestion and told him to contact his personal secretary.


4. (C) Laurie appealed for the U.S. to "feed the moderates"
who either had no power base or "not enough gumption8 to
push for change. He commended the content and timing of
Ambassador Dell's November speech in Mutare, but advised that
the time was not right for further such speeches; it was the
time to be publicly quiet but active behind the scenes.

5. (C) Laurie felt that Mugabe was more prepared now than he
had been for a very long time to engage with the West and
negotiate economic help, as he had crushed the opposition,
land reform was a done deal, and Mugabe knew that Zimbabweans
were cowed by his capacity to lash back in an instant against
revolt. He said that Mugabe was a fighter who "enjoyed a
scrap," but who wanted to go out with his head held high. He
added that Mugabe was not prone to make quick moves, but that
this was the time when he could afford politically to reach
out to the West. In Laurie's opinion, the biggest squeeze on
the economy - and opportunity for outside leverage - was
approaching in the next months when disappointing results of
the current growing season will flow in and South Africa
could begin to reduce power supplies to Zimbabwe.

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Bio Notes
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6. (U) Laurie has said that he worked very closely with
Sally Mugabe in her Child Survival and Development
Foundation, and that he is a trustee of the Foundation. He
was honored to be the only white person invited to speak at
her funeral. Laurie was President of the Commercial Farmers'
Union (CFU) from 1983-1986, Parliamentary Senator from
1986-1990, Chairman of the Beira Corridor Group from
1990-1998, Chairman of the National Railways of Zimbabwe from
1995-1997. He was a participant in the International Visitor
program in 1987. He is a member of the Board of Directors of
Standard Chartered Bank, along with other Boards of several
major Zimbabwean companies. He also heads up the Committee
for Compensation, which is active in securing professional
valuations of seized commercial farms and keeping alive the
farmers' compensation claims.


7. (C) He appears to be at odds with the present leadership
of the CFU over who has the authority to represent
dispossessed commercial farmers in compensation discussions
with the GOZ. He has criticized CFU leadership privately for
its lack of attention to the plight of dispossessed farmers
and for its narrow focus on keeping commercial farms under
production, firstly in Zimbabwe and, failing that, in closely
neighboring countries.


8. (C) Laurie had a small but intensely worked commercial
farm of tobacco, maize, cattle and roses for export that was
seized by a woman whom he alleges is the mistress of Governor
Chigudu of Manicaland and a high-level municipal government
official in Mutare. Recent satellite photos show the farm
out of production and the greenhouses destroyed, according to
Laurie. The new owner has abandoned the site and moved to
her third seized farm in the Vumba valley in the Eastern
Highlands of Manicaland, Laurie said. Mindful of his role in
representing all dispossessed farmers, Laurie maintains he
has never approached Mugabe about regaining his own farm or
obtaining compensation.


9. (U) Laurie is probably in his mid to late 70s. He lives
with his wife in Harare and has at least one adult son who
resides in Capetown, South Africa.

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Comment
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10. (C) Laurie appears to be one more in a string of
emissaries encouraged by senior members of the GOZ to feel
out USG "openness to discussion." Familiarly, he contends
that the recognition that the economy is in a nosedive,
combined with Mugabe's position of political strength, opens
up an avenue for GOZ-U.S. re-engagement. What he and other
advocates of rapprochement have failed to convey, however, is
any sense that Mugabe or those around him are inclined to
consider, much less implement, meaningful political or
economic reforms. They have reached a watershed with their
recognition that the country's economic predicament
necessitates re-engagement with the international community.
But, they have yet to go to the next level and accept that
the cost of ending their isolation is a reversal of their
self-destructive policies. Accordingly, we reiterate our
comment in reftel: This is not the time to be lured into a
process that will buy the GOZ time and stave off economic
collapse and political ruin just a little bit longer.
DELL