MP ON "PRO-SENATE" FACTION ACTIVITIES, PLANS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000160

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

AF/S FOR B. NEULING
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR C. COURVILLE
AFR/SA FOR E. LOKEN
COMMERCE FOR BECKY ERKUL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2011
TAGS: PGOV ECON PHUM ZI
SUBJECT: MP ON "PRO-SENATE" FACTION ACTIVITIES, PLANS


Classified By: Ambassador Christopher Dell under Section 1.4 b/d

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Summary
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1. (C) MDC pro-senate faction MP Priscilla
Misihairabwa-Mushonga told poloff February 2 that little
progress had been made in resolving the dispute that had
split the MDC, though the tone was improving. She said the
biggest challenge facing her faction was selecting a national
leader. She reported that pro-senate members would work
through "the system" but also employ civic action as a
political tool. The faction intended to focus on local
bread-and-butter issues, including the GOZ,s failed land
reform, in its drive to press an increasingly divided ruling
party and restore its own credibility with the public. End
summary.

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Toward a Factional Modus Vivendi
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2. (C) Mushonga asserted that little progress had been made
in working out a modus vivendi between the two factions,
although tensions and public rancor were subsiding. She was
unaware of formal "divorce talks", although members from each
side were talking informally. Mechanisms for communication
and cooperation between the factions in parliament had yet to
be worked out. She claimed that 23 of the MDC's 41 MPs were
in the pro-Senate camp, with David Coltart in neither.


3. (C) Aside from addressing rights to the party name and
assets, the factions had to work out an arrangement for their
parliamentary delegation. Most recognized that challenging
each other's seats would be self-defeating - as loathed as
ZANU-PF was, the MDC's loss of credibility and debilitated
organizational capacity meant the ruling party would win most
by-elections. Each side, however, had elements that were
pushing for further confrontation, including legal battles
and by-elections.

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Congress Bedevilled by Leadership Challenge
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4. (C) Mushonga said the faction's upcoming congress's
fundamental challenge would be to select a leader. She
identified three possible outcomes - first, an organizational
leader to rebuild the party's base but not necessarily be a
national presidential candidate; second, retaining acting
president Gibson Sibanda to serve as a care-taker president
for a limited period; and third, a wide-open election for a
full-term powerful leader.


5. (C) She noted that Welshman Ncube and Gibson Sibanda each
told her they would not run in an open contest in view of the
party's need for a Shona leader with national appeal. (N.B.
Pro-senate MP Abednigo Ncube subsequently told poloff that
Kwekwe MP Blessing Chebundo was emerging as a possible Shona
leadership candidate.) She wouldn't predict the outcome but
said she personally favored the first option, primarily to
forestall further potential division.

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Using GOZ Institutions, Civic Action
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6. (C) Mushonga reiterated that even though the "pro-senate"
faction would continue to pursue influence and power through
existing institutions of Government, the faction recognized
the value of civic action. Most did not believe the
political landscape would permit mass action to effect a
change in power soon. However, the faction's members planned
to exploit local opportunities and collaborate with civil
society in projecting opposition to the regime, principally
on bread-and-butter issues such as food, prices, housing, and
municipal services. In that vein, they were attempting to
collaborate with civil society in preparation for their Party
Congress in late February, but most NGOs were effectively
aligned with the Tsvangirai faction and keeping their
distance.

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Municipal Challenges, Opportunities
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7. (C) Turning to municipal politics, Mushonga said the
parties were likely to be contending elections against each
other in three-way races with ZANU-PF. She said this would
likely cede some MDC-controlled municipalities to ZANU-PF,
except in Matabeleland, where each faction would tally more
than the ruling party. ZANU-PF's co-opting of local
governments wasn't necessarily bad since the opposition would
exploit the inevitable failures to rally the public against
it. Indeed, as municipal services collapsed, MDC
representatives could gain substantial political capital by
organizing rate boycotts or private community service
enterprises to address sanitation and other needs.

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Taking Ownership of Land Issue
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8. (C) On a national level, Mushonga said the pro-senate
faction intended to make particular hay out of ZANU-PF's
failure to deliver on land reform, an issue that remained
emotionally and economically important to most Zimbabweans.
The putative beneficiaries of land reform, "new farmers" were
a key ZANU-PF constituency ripe for the picking. The faction
intended to hold out the promise of property rights to these
farmers, which would be especially crucial in making inroads
into Mashonaland, ZANU-PF's most important bastion.

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ZANU-PF Outwardly Disciplined, Inwardly Divided
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9. (C) Mushonga said that, driven by succession tensions and
growing national economic distress ZANU-PF was in increasing
ferment. She nonetheless expected its MPs to remain
disciplined and ultimately deliver the succession-related
constitutional amendments being prepared for introduction
into the parliament. Passage of the amendment, however,
would do nothing to ameliorate tensions within the party.


10. (C) Mushonga said the United People's Movement and the
United People's Party served a useful purpose in fueling
divisions within the ruling party but predicted they would
ultimately amount to little. Despite increasingly vocal
dissatisfaction within the ruling party, she did not expect
any ZANU-PF defections to either third party, or to either
MDC faction for that matter. Dislodging or breaking up
ZANU-PF would still take time, she concluded.

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11. (C) A regular mbassy interlocutor in her former
capacity of Seretary for Foreign Affairs in the unified MDC,
th normally ebullient Mushonga conceded she had neve been
so down. Apart from the stress and disappintment of the
party's split, her husband was inthe process of taking a job
in Botswana. Accordng to Mushonga, her husband was one of
Harare's lst two orthopedic surgeons. He was making
US$50/month in Harare but would command a starting salay of
US$3000/month in Botswaa. In addition, the decline of
medical infrastructure and personnel, scarcity of medical
supplies, and economic distress of his patient base had made
his Zimbabwe practice "unbearable."

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Comment
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12. (C) With the divisive senate election behind them, the
factions' respective strategies are fundamentally similar:
each involves some combination of working through the system
and stepping up overt opposition to the regime. The rancor
between the two leaderships will not dissipate completely but
reduced tensions likely foreshadow the emergence of a
practical modus vivendi and eventual reunification cannot be
ruled out. Many members of both factions would seem to
prefer a unified party, even if they appear to have given up
for now on reconciliation efforts.
DELL