CONFERENCE PAVES WAY FOR EXTENDING MUGABE'S TERM,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 001493

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

AF/S FOR S. HILL
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU
ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL ZI
SUBJECT: CONFERENCE PAVES WAY FOR EXTENDING MUGABE'S TERM,
CONTINUED SUCCESSION BATTLES

REF: A. REF A: HARARE 1482


B. REF B: HARARE 1465

Classified By: Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i., Eric T. Schultz
under Section 1.5 b/d

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Summary
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1. (C) In a well-scripted development, the December 14-17
ZANU-PF conference adopted a resolution recommending that the
ruling party unify the presidential and parliamentary
elections in 2010. The recommendation, which will require
amending the constitution in Parliament, must first be
approved by ZANU-PF's Central Committee and Politburo.
Political insiders with whom we talked told us the
recommendation met significant resistance from ZANU-PF
members, especially those backing Vice President Joyce
Mujuru. The Mujurus are expected by our interlocutors to
mount a battle in the Politburo over the amendment with an
eye toward convincing Mugabe to step down well before 2010
elections in favor of Joyce Mujuru. They are, however,
unlikely to oppose in Parliament or publicly whatever
amendment ultimately emerges from the Politburo. In our
view, they will have a difficult time overcoming Mugabe's
concerns for his personal safety and the corrupt interests of
his wife and inner circle in prolonging Mugabe's hold on
power. The amendment should emerge from the Politburo in
late spring, and its wording, especially with respect to
succession, will give the clearest indication of the Mujurus'
success. End Summary.

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Conference Passes Pre-Cooked Resolution
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2. (C) As expected (ref B),the 4,000 delegates at the
ZANU-PF conference adopted without open debate a resolution
recommending that the elections be unified in 2010.
According to ruling party Central Committee member Morton
Malianga, the campaigning had been conducted before hand and
the adoption was a "done deal" before the conference even
kicked off.


3. (C) Malianga, Institute for Democracy in South Africa
(IDASA) analyst Sidney Masamvu, and ZANU-PF insiders Leo
Mugabe and Eddie Zvobgo Jr all separately told the Charge and
poloffs that the Conference resolution was the first step in
a process to postpone elections until 2010. The resolution
now goes to the party's Central Committee, which is likely to
rubber stamp the idea, and then on to the Politburo in
February or March for recommendations as to the
constitutional modalities for extension of the term.
Finally, a constitutional amendment is expected to be
introduced into Parliament by the middle of 2007.

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A Rocky Road Ahead
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4. (C) According to all of our interlocutors, passage of the
conference resolution was deeply unpopular with parts of
ZANU-PF. Many ZANU-PF members are fed up with the economic
collapse and want reengagement with the international
community. While respecting Mugabe's past contributions they
believe he must go for things to improve. Nevertheless,
Mugabe orchestrated the conference to, at least for now,

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sideline those who opposed his remaining in office.


5. (C) Masamvu noted that Solomon Mujuru, in particular, was
on a "war path" against Mugabe remaining in office, and that
the conference had appointed several of Mujuru's underlings
to the Central Committee and to the Politburo. While the
Central Committee was likely to rubber stamp a presidential
term extension, Masamvu believed the battle would be joined
in the politburo.


6. (C) Zvobgo said that the "intelligent" option for ZANU-PF
would be for Mugabe step back sometime in 2008 and allow a
successor to govern for two years before facing the voters in
2010 as the incumbent. He confirmed that a struggle was
likely between Mugabe and those opposed to his remaining in
office indefinitely, principally the Mujurus, in the weeks
and months leading up to the Politburo meeting and in the
Politburo itself.


7. (C) Zvobgo said, and we would agree, that the Mujurus
would not take the struggle as far as the Parliament and
would not openly oppose Mugabe. He noted that the wording of
the constitutional amendment when it emerged from the
Politburo would provide important clues to the outcome of
power struggle going on behind the scenes. Elimination of
the constitution's succession clause that requires an
election within 45 days after the president resigns or dies
would indicate, according to Zvogbo, that Mugabe was
potentially willing to appoint a successor and stand down
before 2010. Leaving the constitution in tact, however,
would suggest that Mugabe intended to soldier on and remain
in office, perhaps even beyond 2010.

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Mugabe Trying To Hold On ) To Bitter End
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8. (C) Despite pressure on him to leave in 2008, our
contacts uniformly reported that Mugabe ) and perhaps
equally importantly, those around him ) desperately wanted
to hold on to power. Lending support to this view, Mugabe
told journalists after the conference, "Who needs forever?
God is there; I can't live forever." Many observers took
these comments to mean that Mugabe, who turns 83 in February,
intends to die in office.


9. (C) University of Zimbabwe political science professor
John Makumbe told polchief on December 19 that Mugabe's
concerns for his personal security were paramount in the
leader's decision-making process. While Makumbe did not rule
out the possibility that Mujuru could force Mugabe to make a
deal involving his stepping down, he said these concerns made
it highly unlikely. A successor would likely have to
consolidate power at Mugabe's expense, a fact that Mugabe
surely knows.


10. (C) Adding to these comments, Masamvu said that a third
faction of ZANU-PF, including First Lady Grace Mugabe,
ZANU-PF Information Secretary Nathan Shamuyarira, National
Security Minister Didymus Mutasa, Reserve Bank Governor
Gideon Gono, and many of the so-called securecrats in the
Central Intelligence Organization, had concluded their own
interest would best be served if Mugabe continued in office.
As the IMF recently observed (ref A),many insiders continued
to belly up to state coffers for personal enrichment and any
change to the status quos would jeopardize their pocket books.

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Comment
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11. (C) Mugabe appears to have won this battle; the
conference endorsed a 2010 consolidated
presidential-parliamentary election, leaving the path open
for Mugabe to remain in office at least until 2010. However,
he has yet to cement his prize and Mujuru still has several
cards to play, especially in the Politburo, which will be the
key battle ground of the next six months. There are several
possible succession scenarios that could emerge in that time
frame and no shortage of potential successors, which we will
explore in depth via septel. However, this lack of clarity
plays into Mugabe's hands if he is intent on maintaining
power as it will allow him to continue to set party factions
against one another in order to protect his hold on power.
That said, even if Mugabe dismisses the "intelligent option"
and attempts to press on beyond 2008 and 2010, he will still
have to deal with a collapsing economy and, as a result, his
increasing unpopularity both within ZANU-PF and in the
country as a whole.
SCHULTZ