Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06HARARE1398
2006-11-24 09:05:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Harare
Cable title:  

MDC REUNIFICATION: THE WAY FORWARD

Tags:  PGOV PREL ZI 
pdf how-to read a cable
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R 240905Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0860
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RUEHUJA/AMEMBASSY ABUJA 1388
RUEHAR/AMEMBASSY ACCRA 1241
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 1392
RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN 0127
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 0653
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RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1609
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001398 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

AF/S FOR S.HILL
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU
ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR E.LOKEN
STATE PASS TO NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B.PITTMAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/24/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL ZI
SUBJECT: MDC REUNIFICATION: THE WAY FORWARD

REF: HARARE 1360

Classified By: Ambassador Christopher Dell under Section 1.4 b/d

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SUMMARY
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001398

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

AF/S FOR S.HILL
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU
ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR E.LOKEN
STATE PASS TO NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B.PITTMAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/24/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL ZI
SUBJECT: MDC REUNIFICATION: THE WAY FORWARD

REF: HARARE 1360

Classified By: Ambassador Christopher Dell under Section 1.4 b/d

--------------
SUMMARY
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1. (C) A little more than a year after its acrimonious split
in October 2005, the MDC may be heading for reunification.
Despite financial and organizational challenges, the
opposition made inroads into ruling party strongholds in
recent local elections reinforcing with leaders in both
factions that they could have done even better working as a
united party. Reunification has the apparent support of
faction leaders Morgan Tsvangirai and Arthur Mutambara, but
hardliners in both camps fear that reintegration would cost
them power and influence and they could yet derail efforts to
patch up differences. End Summary.

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REUNIFICATION: THE WAY FORWARD?
--------------


2. (C) In spite of the financial and organizational
challenges resulting from a split MDC, the opposition made
some encouraging inroads into ruling party strongholds during
the latest Rural District Council (RDC) elections (reftel).
Senior leaders from both factions told us that a united party
could have picked up even more seats, and that a reunited
front is essential in mounting the strongest challenge to
ZANU-PF in the presidential election in 2008 and the
parliamentary elections in 2010. Their initial instinct is
to use the lesson as a catalyst for renewing talks about
reunification. To this end, the two factions held separate
executive retreats on Saturday, November 4 to discuss, among
other issues, the consequences of the split and the best way
forward.


3. (C) Reunification is gaining support at the highest levels
in each camp. Morgan Tsvangirai, president of the
anti-Senate faction, and Arthur Mutambara, president of the
pro-Senate faction, are reportedly in agreement that merging
the factions is the only way forward. Tendai Biti, secretary
general of the anti-Senate faction, recently told Ambassador
Dell that many of the senior leaders in the Tsvangirai camp,
including himself and Elton Mangoma, the deputy treasurer,
strongly support the move. For his part, Mutambara has met
several times with anti-Senate leadership within the past
months, including a one-on-one meeting with Tsvangirai.


4. (C) Both camps, however, have hardliners that passionately
resist the idea. On the anti-Senate side, these reportedly
include Lucia Matibenga, the women's caucus leader in the
party, and Elias Mudzuri, the national organizing secretary;
notable on the pro-Senate side are Secretary General Welshman
Ncube, a driving force behind the initial split, and his
deputy, Pricilla Misihairabwi-Mushonga.

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COMMENT: THE CHANCES FOR SUCCESS
--------------


5. (C) What gives reunification a chance for success is the
support of the top leaders on both sides, who have appointed
negotiating teams, and the increasing realization of many in
both factions that a united opposition is a stronger
opposition. A reunited MDC, according to even some of our

HARARE 00001398 002 OF 002


ZANU-PF interlocutors (reftel),would have a strong chance of
winning a free and fair election.


6. (C) Reconciliation leading to reunification, however, may
yet prove difficult. Deep personal differences between
senior leadership on both sides led to the split in the first
place and things have become even more rancorous over the
last year as the two sides have waged a public battle against
one another. Furthermore, significant intra-faction dissent
in both camps may yet be enough to scuttle the move. With
presidential elections now scheduled for 2008, the next
several months will be crucial if the MDC is to reunify and
put the opposition back on the path toward reinvigorating the
base, attracting new supporters, and ultimately getting out
the vote.
DELL