AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH ZANU-PF'S MAKONI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001307

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

AF/S FOR S. HILL
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN
USAID FOR M. COPSON AND E. LOKEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/17/2011
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON PINR EFIN ZI
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH ZANU-PF'S MAKONI

Classified By: Ambassador Christopher Dell under Section 1.4 b/d

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Summary
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1. (C) In an October 26 meeting, ZANU-PF Politburo member
Simba Makoni told the Ambassador the ruling party government
is gridlocked and adrift. Makoni professed ignorance of the
details of the succession battle, in which he has been
increasingly mentioned as a contender, but noted Mugabe may
choose to stay in power. On the economic front, Makoni
acknowledged the government,s disastrous economic policies
and said reform would require non-existent political will.
Makoni, who attended the recent American Business Association
of Zimbabwe (ABAZ) conference (septel),agreed with the
Ambassador that the conference and follow-up private sector
activities could help define the reforms needed for economic
recovery, assuming a change of government. End Summary.

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ZANU-PF Gridlock
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2. (C) Makoni told the Ambassador that the ZANU-PF
government is gridlocked. As a result the government and the
country are adrift with no one in the GOZ making the
necessary decisions to reverse failed and failing policies.
One result is the dismal economic situation. The GOZ,s
command and control policies were leading to economic
collapse. He noted a UNDP comparative study of governments
that had shown the GOZ engaged in more planning than 90
percent of the sample governments but ranked in the bottom
four percent in terms of effective implementation. &Are we
ready to do anything?8, he asked rhetorically. Noting the
continuing collapse of the economy, he answered himself in
the negative--the political will is lacking. He added that
most Zimbabweans elites think of themselves first, then their
tribes, next their political parties, and last their country.


3. (C) The Ambassador queried whether the state of the
economy combined with political paralysis could portend an
end of the regime. Makoni responded that Mbutu had held on
for 15 years as his country collapsed around him. He noted
that despite all the chatter about succession it was entirely
possible that Mugabe could likewise decide to hang on to
power indefinitely. Makoni feigned ignorance of who the main
contenders are in the succession struggle, despite the
increasing number of reports that he is himself a potential
successor.

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ABAZ Conference*Building Blocks for the Future
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4. (C) Makoni said that in his opinion nothing particularly
new had come out of the ABAZ conference in October (septel).
The reforms needed were widely known and have been discussed
in other fora. What is needed, he once more noted, is the
political will to implement these solutions. He pointed out
there were only a small number of government officials
present and that those officials who can make economic
decisions did not attend.


5. (C) The Ambassador and Makoni agreed, however, that small
meetings building on the conference could be a useful way to
build a consensus on needed reforms to be implemented once
there is a new and receptive government. Participants in

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such small meetings could include mid-level officials who
would be part of the bureaucracy of a new government,
professional economists and academics, a parliamentary
portfolio committee leaders. The Ambassador also noted that
U.S. support of the ABAZ conference and follow-on serves to
demystify the U.S. and demonstrate our potential to play a
constructive role.

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Comment
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6. (C) Makoni, a former Finance Minister, is linked by
marriage to the Mujeru clan. However, he is widely viewed
within ZANU-PF as a technocrat with appeal to both the West
and to average Zimbabweans. In that regard, he is much like
Central Bank head Gideon Gono, whose name has also begun to
be mentioned as a potential successor. We regard the fact
that succession talk has increasingly shifted from Joyce
Mujeru and Emmerson Mnangagwa, ZANU-PF dinosaurs, to these
two individuals as a sign that the ruling party is
increasingly aware of its lack of popular appeal and its need
for external support if it is to reverse the economic
collapse. This effort to seek more moderate and more
acceptable leadership to our mind underscores the degree to
which the West can increasingly use financial incentives to
leverage real reform here, both economic and democratic.
DELL