UPCOMING RURAL ELECTIONS LIKELY TO DEMONSTRATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001283

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

AF/S FOR S. HILL
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC ZI
SUBJECT: UPCOMING RURAL ELECTIONS LIKELY TO DEMONSTRATE
ZANU-PF STRANGLEHOLD

REF: REFTEL: HARARE 1235

Classified By: Ambassador Christopher W. Dell under Section 1.4 b/d

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Summary
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1. (SBU) Rural district council elections to be held on
October 28 are expected to reinforce the ruling party's hold
over the rural areas. ZANU-PF has already secured a third of
the 1,328 council seats after several hundred would-be
opposition candidates were barred from nomination. The
anti-Senate faction of the MDC will field candidates
nationwide, while the pro-Senate faction is confined
primarily to Matabeleland; the two factions will face off in
more than 50 races in those provinces. The Zimbabwe
Electoral Support Network (ZESN),plans to field 520
observers nationwide and to conduct a parallel vote count in
a sampling of wards. End Summary.

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ZANU-PF A Step Ahead In Saturday's Poll
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2. (U) October 28 marks election day for 1,328 rural
district council seats in all but two constituencies
nationwide ) rural council races in Chikomba and Rushinga
were held earlier this month to coincide with parliamentary
by-elections in those constituencies (retel). Also on the
same day urban council elections will take place in five
cities as well as a mayoral election in Kadoma that pits an
anti-Senate MDC candidate against the ZANU-PF incumbent, who
ZESN observers suggest is likely to eke out a victory.


3. (U) The preelection period has been relatively peaceful.
ZESN has confirmed one incident of political violence, while
additional cases alleged by the opposition have been
relatively few as compared to past elections. ZESN also has
reported several instances of intimidation by traditional
leaders in Manicaland and is investigating alleged cases in
other provinces. Additionally, the leader of Zimbabwe's
traditional chiefs, Forunte Charumbira, is quoted in an
independent online newspaper as saying that opposition
supporters should be evicted by traditional authorities.


4. (U) At the close of the nomination courts on September
20, ZANU-PF had emerged the uncontested winner of 455 seats,
while eight opposition candidates were similarly named
victors unopposed. However, both factions of the MDC have
claimed the GOZ slanted the nomination process to preclude
more than 500 would-be candidates between the two from
throwing their hats into the ring. The opposition has
focused its blame on a new nomination procedure that requires
a candidate to secure police clearance. This process
requires that a candidate pay Z$2,000 for processing (US$8 at
the official rate) and submit their fingerprints to police
headquarters in Harare for vetting. Allegedly, many MDC
candidates were unable to obtain the requisite clearance.

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MDC Factions Face Off, ZANU-PF Splinter Party Contends
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5. (SBU) Candidates from the two factions of the MDC will
face off in 52 races nationwide, three-quarters of which are
in Matabeleland and Midlands, potentially splitting votes
there favor of the ruling party candidates. Pro-Senate MDC
officials have told us that they had decided not to field
candidates in many races in the other provinces for fear of

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splitting the vote. (Note: Resource constraints and an
inability to find willing candidates were probably also
important factors.) By comparison, the anti-Senate MDC has
fielded candidates nationwide and its leader, Morgan
Tsvangirai, in the past weeks has held several well-attended

SIPDIS
rallies in Ndebele provinces, the de facto home of the
pro-Senate faction.


6. (SBU) Also fielding candidates in its first nationwide
elections, former-ruling party official Daniel Shumba's
United People's Party (UPP) ) which is widely seen as a
front for ZANU-PF faction leader Emmerson Mnangagwa's
post-Mugabe succession ambitions - will contest 55 council
seats. The majority of these seats are in Masvingo, the
heartland of the Karanga sub-ethnic group of the Shona, who
are increasingly unnerved by the elevation of rival Zezuru
politicians within ZANU-PF. Additionally, seven candidates
from the marginal ZANU Ndongo party and 18 independents will
run.

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A Real Test For Local Observers
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7. (SBU) ZESN plans to accredit 520 observers across the
country, focusing on the race contested by both MDC factions
in Matabeleland where 176 observers will be deployed. Twenty
of the observers nationwide will be mobile to watch for
potential flare-ups away from polling stations. The
remaining observers will be stationed at polling stations at
a sampling of wards where ZESN will conduct a parallel vote
count. ZESN does not have the resources to mount a parallel
count in all races, but instead will attempt to target those
races it believes could serve as indicators for the rest.

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Comment
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8. (C) ZANU-PF is likely to retain a large number of the
rural council seats in large part due to its manipulation of
media outlets, traditional leaders, and the campaign process.
However, the opposition may be able to capitalize on growing
discontent over the economy to score some victories ) such
as its victory in a communal area in the Chikomba rural
council elections earlier this month (reftel). Key races to
watch will be in Matabeleland, as an indicator of the
relative strengths of the two MDC factions, and in Masvingo,
where Shumba's UPP could tap into underlying Karanga unease
over Mnangagwa's apparent sidelining in the ZANU-PF
succession battle.
DELL