GVN TO PRESENT MEDIUM AND LONG-TERM AI STRATEGY;

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 HANOI 000837

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

STATE FOR G, CA/OCS/ACS/EAP, EAP/EX, EAP/MLS, EAP/EP, INR,
OES/STC (PBATES),OES/IHA (DSINGER AND NCOMELLA),AND MED
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR ANE AND GH (DCARROLL, SCLEMENTS AND
PCHAPLIN)
STATE PASS TO USTR (ELENA BRYAN)
STATE PASS TO HHS/OGHA (WSTIEGER, EELVANDER AND ABHAT)
USDA PASS TO APHIS
DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE FOR OSD/ISA/AP (LSTERN)
BANGKOK FOR RMO, CDC, USAID (MFRIEDMAN, JMACARTHUR AND
MBRADY)
ROME FOR FAO

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: TBIO KFLU AMED AMGT CASC EAGR PINR SOCI VM
SUBJECT: GVN TO PRESENT MEDIUM AND LONG-TERM AI STRATEGY;
PRAISE AND CALLS FOR CONTINUED DONOR SUPPORT FROM THE UN


HANOI 00000837 001.2 OF 004


SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. DO NOT POST ON THE INTERNET.

REF: (A) Hanoi 800 and previous


1. (SBU) Summary: Ambassador Marine attended the Monthly
Donor Group Forum on Avian Influenza (AI) on April 7.
Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) Cao Duc
Phat and Senior United Nations System Coordinator for Avian
and Human Influenza David Nabarro were keynote speakers.
Phat stressed that although there have been no AI outbreaks
in poultry since December 2005, AI remains a threat in
Vietnam, and asked for continued donor support. He noted
that the GVN will present a draft of its medium and long-
term National Preparedness Plan, also referred to as the
"Green Book" to international donors for comment on April
12, and to the Review Team of the World Bank and other
donors in mid-April. Nabarro praised Vietnam's efforts and
success in managing AI, but stressed that the threat remains
high, and called for donors to continue their support. He
gave an overview of the global AI situation, noting the
exponential increase in the number of countries affected by
AI, and elaborated on funding frameworks and national
preparedness plan fundamentals. Nabarro and Food and
Agriculture Organization (FAO) representative Christina
Amaral made a point to express to the Ambassador their
appreciation for the United States' contributions. End
Summary.


2. (U) Ambassador Marine attended the Monthly Donor Group
Forum on AI on April 7. Minister of Agriculture and Rural
Development (MARD) Cao Duc Phat and Senior United Nations
System Coordinator for Avian and Human Influenza David
Nabarro were keynote speakers. A representative of the
Ministry of Health also made brief remarks. Heads of
Mission, and representatives from multilateral agencies
participated in the meeting.

Phat: Vietnam Turning to Medium and Long-Term Strategies
-------------- --------------

3. (SBU) Phat stressed that while Vietnam has had no AI
outbreaks in poultry since December 2005, the GVN continues
to see AI as a threat and remains on high alert. Of
particular concern is that Muscovy ducks may have become a
virus reservoir, and there is a booming illegal cross-border
trade in chickens and ducks from China. A new round of
vaccinations targeted at 34 high-risk provinces has begun,
and a poultry disinfection campaign continues. The
government is looking into how to raise, slaughter and
market chicken in a manner that reduces the threat of AI.
The National Committee on AI meets weekly, and has
instructed all provinces to take uniform anti-AI measures.
The focus is on education, since there is a feeling that
there has been relaxation after several months without an AI
outbreak. Phat asked donors to continue working with the
GVN in recognition that AI remains a threat.


4. (SBU) MARD has been encouraged by the international
support received after the January Beijing Conference on AI,

HANOI 00000837 002.2 OF 004


where Vietnam presented its "Preparedness Plan to Control
Epizootic and Human Pandemic for the Period 2006-2008" also
referred to as the "Red Book". An inter-agency working
group led by MARD was established to formulate a medium and
long-term National Preparedness Plan to control and
eradicate AI. A draft of this plan, referred to as the
"Green Book", will be circulated to international donors for
comments on April 12, and will be presented to the Review
team of the World Bank and other donors in mid-April. Key
elements of the strategy are disease control, activity
consolidation, and disease eradication.


5. (SBU) Poultry vaccination, this year targeted in 34
provinces, remains a key element of Vietnam's anti-AI
strategy. In addition, all farmers are required to
disinfect their facilities while public authorities are to
disinfect markets, slaughterhouses and other public areas
where fowl are present. Particular attention is being paid
to stopping the illegal import of chickens and ducks from
China. Efforts are being made to restructure the poultry
industry in order to increase bio-security. The government
is also seeking to increase veterinary services capacity,
and to develop a vaccine locally, especially for ducks,
using virus donated by the WHO. In response to donor
questions, Phat stated that while vaccination is not a
panacea and is costly, it has been an important strategy in
Vietnam, where the H5N1 virus is endemic in chickens and
ducks. Nabarro added that vaccination has a clear role in
countries where AI is endemic, though not all these
countries are automatically candidates for vaccination
campaigns. He said that the FAO is continually reviewing
its risk assessment and monitoring the situation in these
countries.

Nabarro: Praise for Vietnam and the AI Global Overview
-------------- --------------

6. (SBU) Nabarro highly praised Vietnam's efforts and
success in managing AI since the disease was discovered. He
stressed, however, that the threat remains high, and called
for donors to continue their support. Vietnam is a test
case whose government has demonstrated a commitment to
contributing to the global good and needs to receive
adequate resources. It is also the source of a potential
global threat if Vietnam's Muscovy ducks have become a virus
reservoir, he noted. During general discussion, EC
Ambassador Markus Cornaro concurred that Vietnam should not
be penalized for having responded quickly and should remain
a high funding priority. (Note: Nabarro and FAO
representative Christina Amaral both made a point to express
to the Ambassador their appreciation for the United States'
delivery on its pledges. End note.)


7. (SBU) Nabarro gave an overview of the current global AI
situation, which has developed into a rapidly changing
epizootic, the animal equivalent of a pandemic. Since
January, over 30 countries have reported outbreaks of AI in
birds, twice the number reported in the previous 2 1/2
years. The UN head veterinarian believes that in the next

HANOI 00000837 003.2 OF 004


two months AI will appear in an increasing number of
countries, and will infect a proportionally higher number of
birds. AI has been spreading west from Southeast Asia along
both migratory and trade routes, as infected chicks and eggs
are traded and smuggled, he observed.


8. (SBU) Nabarro said there are three possible scenarios in
which AI would be transmittable between humans and became a
pandemic: a) mild; b) several milder events that recur over
a number of years; c) a dramatic event on the scale of the
1918 flu, which is the least likely but also the most
serious. In response to questions, Nabarro said that
although he is not convinced of the cyclicity of flu
pandemics, he is certain of their inevitability, and that
the change in H5N1's infectivity characteristics is cause
for alarm. The impact of a flu pandemic would have negative
effects on people's livelihoods, human health, governments,
rule of law, and the global economic system, and would
increase humanitarian needs, Nabarro continued. In response
countries need to formulate plans to: stop AI in animals;
prevent a pandemic from developing by limiting human
exposure to diseased birds; and mitigate quickly should a
pandemic develop. National AI plans should address: animal
health; bio-security; public health; continued government
and rule of law; sustainability of economic and social
systems; a vulnerability assessment; and providing
humanitarian aid. In addition to short-term emergency
action plans, national plans should include medium-term
plans for government investment in AI prevention,
development of a strong evidence base and institutions,
capacity building, and long-term technical assistance.

Financing National Plans
--------------

9. (SBU) The emphasis of financial support remains on
national plans, channeled through direct-bilateral aid,
multi-donor trust funds established in country, and
International Development Association (IDA) and
International Bank for Reconstruction and Development(IBRD)
loans available to cover otherwise unfunded elements of the
national plan. Additional financing is available through
regional institutions and networks, and multilateral
institutions such as the World Organization for Animal
Health (OIE),and NGOs such as the Red Cross. Responding to
donor questions, Nabarro explained that the UN will provide
technical assistance through its specialized agencies, while
the World Bank and regional development banks will be major
sources of financing and expertise in designing effective
financial frameworks and capacity building. Nabarro noted
that the USD 1.9 billion estimate for addressing AI
worldwide that was discussed in Beijing was based on
calculations done in a period where only approximately ten
countries had reported AI cases.


10. (SBU) Nabarro stated that countries need to establish a
national level task force to develop an integrated plan,
that will include transition from a crisis to a long-term
response. Joint appraisal and prioritization with the donor

HANOI 00000837 004.2 OF 004


community is critical to identify plan funding. The
appraisal should establish that the plan is reflective of
circumstances; has support at a high political level; is
evidence based; incorporates a sound technical strategy;
and, has community engagement, an implicit capacity to
address the problem, and crisis response triggers. Plans
should be coordinated in country at all levels and include
civil society, and on the regional and international levels.
Priorities should include: assessing the ever-changing
situation and the risks to the population, especially the
poor; establishing an evidence base; distributing
information; maintaining animal health; engaging the public
health sector; and providing for the continuity of the
economic, governmental, and social sectors in the event of a
pandemic. In response to a question from the Ambassador,
Nabarro said that the UN is taking lessons learned from
Vietnam, China, Laos and Cambodia to reduce the learning
curve in countries experiencing H5N1 more recently.

MARINE