VIETNAM, ASEAN FM MEETING, BURMA

UNCLAS HANOI 000815

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL ARF BM VM
SUBJECT: VIETNAM, ASEAN FM MEETING, BURMA

REF: STATE 56185


1. (SBU) Summary: Vietnam will send an Assistant Minister
to the Bali ministerial and is withholding judgment on what
to do about Burma until it hears what Malaysian FM Hamid has
to say. Vietnam is generally not inclined to support
external intervention in Burma, but seems willing to go
along with the Malaysian recommendation, whatever that might
be. They expect at least some action on Burma, even if it
is only reiterating the December statement. End Summary.


2. (SBU) The ASEAN Foreign Minister's Meeting in Bali April
18 overlaps with the Vietnamese Communist Party's 10th
National Party Congress, MFA ASEAN expert Vu Ho told Poloff
April 10. As a result, FM Nguyen Dzy Nien will not attend
the meeting, and will send Assistant Minister Nguyen Trung
Thanh instead.


3. (SBU) The highlight of the Bali meeting will be the
report by Malaysian Foreign Minister Syed Hamid, Ho said.
FM Hamid's visit to Burma "was a disappointment," Ho
related. "He basically had a courtesy call on the Prime
Minister and then had to travel an entire day to the new
mountain capital for a meeting with the Burmese Foreign
Minister, for which we still do not have a readout. Then he
cut his trip short." Vietnam understands that the trip was
not everything all the ASEAN countries hoped for, Ho said,
but it is important to recognize that it is a step in the
right direction. "This is the first time in forty years
that ASEAN has done this, and we feel it opens the door for
communication." However, he continued, if the Burmese
leadership feels that ASEAN's involvement threatens their
security interests, internal or external, "they will refuse
us, even ASEAN." For ASEAN, sacrificing hard-won internal
solidarity is very difficult, but it is also necessary to
address "external concerns" from "important ASEAN partners,"
Ho explained.


4. (SBU) Much will depend on FM Hamid's report, Ho said.
Some countries, including Vietnam, feel that Burma has
already made big sacrifices for ASEAN's overall well-being,
particularly its decision to forego the chairmanship, and
that effort should be recognized. However, FM Hamid's
report will be the deciding factor on how ASEAN decides to
go forward. ASEAN is not going to stop its efforts to help
improve the Burma situation, he added; at the very least,
the group will probably repeat the December statement.
Still, all ASEAN actions take "lots of time, and lots of
discussion," so the United States would be wise to be
patient. "There will be some progress," Ho promised.


5. (SBU) Comment: The MFA was reluctant to meet with us last
week, but readily agreed today; this, plus the normally
taciturn Vu Ho's relative expansiveness, suggests that we
were being given a cleared message.

MARINE