SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN FOREIGN POLICY UNLIKELY AT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HANOI 000791

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL CVR VM
SUBJECT: SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN FOREIGN POLICY UNLIKELY AT
VIETNAM'S PARTY CONGRESS

Ref: Hanoi 30

HANOI 00000791 001.2 OF 002



1. (SBU) Summary: Vietnam's foreign policy evolution, a
gradual process, is not likely to see any sharp changes or
surprises at the upcoming 10th Party Congress. Instead, we
will see an elaboration of existing policy, with efforts to
improve relations with neighboring countries (ASEAN),
maintain balance in the relationship among Vietnam, China
and the United States and increase Vietnam's participation
in international and multilateral diplomacy. Over time, the
most remarkable development has been the change towards
foreign policy pragmatism in leadership thinking and away
from Communist dogma. End Summary.

Background on Vietnam's Foreign Policy Evolution
-------------- ---


2. (SBU) Over the last twenty years, Vietnam's foreign
policy has reflected the "evolving progressive thinking" of
Vietnam's leadership as the country has passed rapidly
through different periods of political development,
according to Ta Minh Tuan, Deputy Director of the Center for
European and American Studies at the Institute for
International Relations (IIR),the leading training and
research academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA).
Vietnam initiated its "Doi Moi" (renovation) policy during
the 6th Party Congress in 1986, where it focused primarily
on relations with the former Soviet Union and considered
that nation the cornerstone of Vietnam's foreign policy.


3. (SBU) Two years later, the Politburo adjusted the
country's foreign policy to respond to the "new situation"
emerging from the 1986 decision to liberalize the domestic
economy, shifting away from a dogmatic alliance with the
Soviet Union and towards a new policy of "more friends and
fewer enemies." During this period, the policy was to co-
exist in peace with China, ASEAN and the United States. At
the 7th Party Congress in 1991, Vietnam again shifted its
focus, this time to consolidating its relations with Laos
and Cambodia and speeding up normalization with China. Five
years later, at the 8th Party Congress, Vietnam reaffirmed
that it sought to strengthen relations with its neighbors,
ASEAN members and "traditional friends." Not until 2001, at
the 9th Congress, did the Government of Vietnam announce its
current foreign policy, which the Party calls "independent
and self-reliant diversification and multi-lateralization of
international relations," and which the Vietnamese man-on-
the-street calls the "friends with everyone" policy.


4. (SBU) This evolution of Vietnamese foreign policy from
lockstep agreement with the Soviet Union to the current
"friends with everyone" policy reflects pragmatism in the
GVN leadership and a desire to integrate Vietnam
internationally, in contrast to a policy based on adherence
to international Communist doctrine, according to Dr. Nguyen
Thi Mai Hoa, an expert at the Communist Party History
Journal, a monthly publication of the Ho Chi Minh Political
Academy, the Party's top think tank.

10th Party Congress: An Opportunity to Reaffirm and Develop
Existing Foreign Policy
-------------- --------------


5. (SBU) The 10th Party Congress will "reaffirm and deepen
the country's strongly supported foreign policy," Ta Anh
Tuan said. Vietnam's current motto is "Vietnam wants to be
a friend and reliable partner with all nations in the
international community, striving for peace, independence
and development," he explained. The Foreign Ministry was
confident enough that Vietnam's foreign policy will stay
consistent that Foreign Minister Nguyen Dzy Nien provided a
foreign policy forecast for 2006 during February's Lunar New
Year celebrations. He said Vietnam will focus on four
areas, including: (1) the continued development, on the
basis of equality and mutual benefit, of stable and long-
term relations with "neighbors and great powers;" (2)
enhanced efforts for international integration and accession
to WTO; (3) the successful hosting of APEC; and, (4)
continued implementation of the Government's Resolution 36
concerning building relations with overseas Vietnamese.


6. (SBU) Separately, Nguyen Thiet Son, Director of the
Institute of American Studies (IAS),and Colonel Tran Nhung,
former foreign affairs editor of Quan Doi Nhan Dan
("People's Army") Newspaper, explained to us that, with the
Government's foreign policy "not open to debate," the 10th
Party Congress will serve only to reaffirm its continuity,

HANOI 00000791 002.2 OF 002


rather than creating any unexpected reversals. The draft
Political Report of the 10th Congress pledges that Vietnam
will "expand its consistent foreign policy in the format of
diversification and multi-lateralization of relations, which
was first introduced during the 7th National Party Congress
in 1991" (reftel). According to the Political Report, the
mission of Vietnam's foreign policy is to maintain peace and
stability. This means that Vietnam has to create and
maintain peace and stability not only with China, but also
with Laos and Cambodia to ensure a buffer zone for the
country, according to Ta Minh Tuan from IIR. "People tend
to underestimate Laos and Cambodia as small countries, but
they are vital for a stable Vietnam," Tuan added.

The GVN's Foreign Policy Priorities in 2006 and Beyond:
Consolidate Regional Relations; Balance China and the United
States; Elevate Vietnam's International Standing
-------------- --------------


7. (SBU) Vietnamese leaders love their proverbs. Explaining
that, in spite of its "friends with everyone" policy,
Vietnam still has to prioritize its efforts, Deputy Prime
Minister Vu Khoan said in a press article in Nhan Dan
("People's Daily") Newspaper on November 14, 2005 that
"nearby neighbors are even more valuable than far away
relatives." Vietnam, he explained, attaches importance in
its current foreign policy to building and consolidating its
relations with neighboring countries in Southeast Asia, and
those in the Asia-Pacific region. Regardless of what the
10th Party Congress affirms or doesn't affirm, Vietnam will
have to balance and enhance its relations with China and the
United States among others, multiple senior sources
confirmed.


8. (SBU) Vietnam understands that "the grass suffers when
the elephants fight," and so it requires tough calculations
for Vietnam to masterfully balance its relations with both
China and the United States, according to IIR DDG Dr. Hoang
Anh Tuan. However, Nguyen Thiet Son from IAS said
separately that in the short to medium term, there will
likely be more "breakthroughs" in U.S.-Vietnam relations
than in China-Vietnam relations. History has taught Vietnam
enough about "not getting too close or too far with China,"
said the researcher. There is a lot more room for progress
in U.S.-Vietnam relations in the future, he added.


9. (SBU) Another priority is to "elevate Vietnam's image and
position" in the international arena, according to according
to Nguyen Quoc Dung, a senior MFA officer now attached to
the APEC Secretariat. To do this, he said, Vietnam will
have to prove that it is not only a reliable partner, "but
also an active and responsible member of the international
community." A successful APEC would be good evidence, he
noted. In an interview with Ha Noi Moi ("New Hanoi")
newspaper, Foreign Minister Nien said that Vietnam's WTO
accession, its hosting APEC and its candidacy for non-
permanent membership in the 2008-2009 UN Security Council
are all designed to elevate Vietnam's international
position.

Comment
--------------


10. (SBU) Vietnam is a highly stable and predictable
political environment where sudden, arbitrary changes in
foreign policy are unlikely. Vietnamese leaders like to do
things incrementally, and so any moves are likely to be
gradual. Traditionally, Party congresses in Vietnam are
opportunities for changes in domestic issues like personnel
or economic development policy, and changes in foreign
policy are necessarily derivatives of those issues. For the
immediate future, Vietnam's foreign policy experts expect
that Vietnam will want to do more with the United States,
thus tying its foreign policy decisions to its national
economic interests. End Comment.

MARINE