LEADERSHIP RUMORS ABOUND FOLLOWING THE 14TH

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 HANOI 000767

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/MLS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PHUM KIRF VM
SUBJECT: LEADERSHIP RUMORS ABOUND FOLLOWING THE 14TH
PARTY PLENUM

REF: A) Hanoi 222, B) Hanoi 596

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1. (SBU) Summary: Rumors continue to swirl about the
likely changes in Vietnam's leadership following the
10th Party Congress in April. They have grown
especially intense since last week's close of the 14th
Plenum of the Central Committee of the Communist Party
(CPV),which announced that it had put together its
list of eligible candidates for the next Central
Committee (to be elected during the Party Congress) and
had decided on some Politburo recommendations. Our
most plugged-in insiders have contradictory, though
authoritatively stated, predictions about the
leadership slate. We note that in the last Party
Congress, the Central Committee threw out the
Politburo's recommendations altogether and booted
surprised General Secretary Le Ka Phieu to the curb.
As explained to us by the Chairman of the U.S.-Vietnam
Society, "...at this time, all of Vietnam is very busy
helping the Party Personnel Committee with their work."
This is leadership politics, Vietnam-style. End
Summary.

Candidates to Next Central Committee Certified
-------------- -


2. (SBU) The CPV's Central Committee met March 20-25 in
its 14th Plenum to agree to a list of eligible
candidates for the next Central Committee, which will
be submitted to the 10th Party Congress (now scheduled
for April 18-25) for its endorsement. The Plenum also
discussed a draft working agenda, working regulations
and voting procedures for the Congress, and passed them
on to the Politburo to complete for submission to the
Congress.

One scenario
--------------


3. (SBU) Ngo Cuong, Editor-in-Chief of the Supreme
People's Court (SPC)-affiliated Judicial Journal,
reported that according to his boss and mentor, SPC
Presiding Judge Nguyen Van Hien, the plenum approved
separate lists of 175 possible nominees and 31
candidate-alternates to the new Central Committee, from
which 160 official members and 25 alternates (who will
not have voting rights) will be selected during the
Party Congress.


4. (SBU) Hien also said the plenum discussed whether
current Politburo members may be retained for the next
Politburo. They reached consensus that only six of the
current 14 Politburo members can continue to serve in
the next Central Committee and on the next Politburo.
These six are 1) Party Secretary Nong Duc Manh, 2) Ho
Chi Minh City Party Chief Nguyen Minh Triet, 3)
Standing Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dzung, 4)
Hanoi Party Chief Nguyen Phu Trong, 5) CPV Central
Economic Commission Director Truong Tan Sang and 6)
Public Security Minister Le Hong Anh. Manh, Triet,
Dzung and Trong will likely take the four top positions
of Party Chief, State President, Prime Minister, and
National Assembly Chairman, Hien said. Nguyen Van Chi,
currently a Secretariat member and head of the CPV
Control Commission (the CPV's inspectorate),will
likely replace Phan Dzien as the permanent member of
the Secretariat, the Deputy Party Secretary position.
(Note: These predictions have appeared in the Japanese
press. End Note.)


5. (SBU) Hien also reportedly said the plenum agreed to
convene a 15th (and final) Plenum right before the
Party Congress takes place to review other eligible
candidates for the next Politburo and Secretariat.
Also, during the 14th Plenum, Party Chief Manh was
asked to take the positions of State President and
Party Chief following the Party Congress, but he
refused to accept the offer. (Note: Conflation of the
party secretary role and the presidency has been a
perennial proposal in Vietnamese politics. End Note.)

Another Version
--------------


6. (SBU) Offering a somewhat different prediction,
Senior Colonel Tran Nhung, former chief of the
international affairs division of Quan Doi Nhan Dan
(People's Army) newspaper, says that Triet will replace

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Manh as Party Chief at the next Party Congress, while
Manh will likely become the President. He asserted
that Control Commission chief Nguyen Van Chi will
replace Tran Dinh Hoan as chief of the CPV Personnel
Commission, and Truong Tan Sang, head of the Economic
Commission, may well replace Phan Dzien. He also said
participants the 14th Plenum reached consensus that the
Party Chief will be approved by all members attending
the Party Congress. This should be considered a sign
of improved democracy within the Party's activities at
the top level, Nhung averred. (Note: According to
current Party statutes, the Party Chief is elected by
members of the new Central Committee, not the entire
Party Congress. End Note.)


7. (SBU) Legally, leadership changes made at the Party
Congress do not take effect until the National Assembly
(NA) officially approves them. Nhung said this will
occur at the NA's spring session, which is now slated
for May 16-June 27. He explained this unusually rapid
transition by quoting his mentor, NA Chairman Nguyen
Van An, who said that new nominations are essential to
"showcase Vietnam's intention toward long-term
leadership credibility," especially given that the
country is hosting the next APEC summit. Official
sources at the Office of the National Assembly (ONA)
hinted that the NA will likely discuss issues of top
personnel positions at the end of its forthcoming
session.

And Another Version...
--------------


8. (SBU) Nguyen Chi Dzung, former Editor-in-Chief of
the ONA-affiliated Legislative Journal, said Triet will
be President, as Manh will likely retain his position
as Party Chief for at least half a term of the next
Central Committee, to be replaced by Triet, who will
then concurrently take the two top positions.
According to Dzung, Triet is supported by "progressive
elements" within the Party, including Vo Van Kiet and
Nguyen Tan Dzung. However, given opposition from
conservative elements, and in order to avoid any
psychological frustration with respect to the issue of
geographical representation, such a circuitous
transition is important, Dzung asserted.

New Voting and Working Regulations
--------------


9. (SBU) Also according to Dzung, Nhung and Ngo Van
Hoa, a professor from the Institute of History, the
12th Plenum (held in December 2005) agreed that there
would be no "preparatory meeting" before the main Party
Congress, and that there will be no foreign guests
invited to attend the Congress. Such changes in
working regulations are designed to "facilitate true
discussions" on critical issues, including the
assignment of top personnel, to avoid what has been the
customary historical practice that all significant
issues are discussed and decided upon during a
preparatory meeting, Hoa asserted.


10. (SBU) Hoa noted that no officials of the Communist
Party of Vietnam attended the Congress in February of
the Lao People's Revolutionary Party, which suggests
there will be no foreign delegations, including those
from Laos and China, attending the next CPV's own
Congress. (Note: Vietnam, Laos, China and Cambodia's
communist parties have long maintained a tradition of
exchanging delegations to each other's Congresses.
China's Hu Jintao, who was then Vice President, and the
former Lao Party Chief attended the 9th CPV Party
Congress in 2001. End Note.)


11. (SBU) According to Senior Colonel Nhung, the new
working regulations may lead to last-minute changes in
the list of candidates for the next Central Committee
and Politburo even though they have already been
certified by the retiring Central Committee. Members
of the sixty-four provincial delegations and five
delegations representing the seven Party "blocs"
(foreign relations, mass mobilization, science and
education, ideology and culture, internal affairs,
military affairs and public security),may take the
opportunity to introduce new names during the formal
Congress, Nhung asserted.


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12. (SBU) Dzung, Hoa and Nhung also noted that the 12th
Plenum had decided that officials holding top positions
do not necessarily have to correspond to geographical
representation, a significant change from the existing
decades-long arrangement whereby the three top
leadership slots are divided among northern, central
and southern candidates. Dzung said it is possible
that Triet, who is from the south, may be selected as
Party Chief during the upcoming Congress, with Nguyen
Tan Dzung (another southerner) nominated to the
premiership, which is "a scenario that conservative
elements within the Party would hate to see." Dzung
also repeated a proliferating rumor about a recent
lunch hosted by former State President Le Duc Anh for
six of the eight retiring Politburo members and former
Party Chief Do Muoi. The alleged purpose of that
unconfirmed lunch was to prevent both Triet and DPM
Dzung from taking leadership positions. There had been
discussions before the 14th Plenum on whether to also
retain Nguyen Van An from the North as the new Party
Chief in the next Central Committee as a compromise
solution, he said.

Central Committee Warns Against Abuse of Democracy
-------------- --------------


13. (SBU) In addition to its personnel work, the 14th
Plenum also reportedly attempted to temper the recent
high volume of calls for political reform following the
Secretariat's March release of the draft Political

SIPDIS
Report for public comment. While CPV-run dailies like
Nhan Dan (The People) and Quan Doi Nhan Dan (People's
Army) newspapers tended to only cover neutrally
constructive comments, some leading print and
electronic newspapers, namely Tuoi Tre (Youth) and
Vietnam Net, pushed the envelope by publishing reader
comments that questioned the so-called "transitional
period to socialism in Vietnam."


14. (SBU) A formal announcement from the plenum claimed
that "tens of thousands of people have contributed
ideas" to the draft report, praised constructive
comments, and noted that "the Central Committee
strongly criticizes and rejects ill-intentioned and
hostile opinions, abusing the consultation of the
Political Report to distort, slander and tarnish the
party, State and our people." On March 27, Nhan Dan
newspaper started publishing articles to reaffirm
Maxism-Lenism and Ho Chi Minh Thought as the Party's
ideological foundation. These articles also attacked
pluralism and underlined the importance of the CPV's
leadership role.


15. (SBU) Dr. Hoang Ngoc Giao, a senior lecturer from
Hanoi National University, said the Central Committee's
warning and Nhan Dan's articles are discouraging, and
reflect the CPV's "status-quo" approach to critical
political and economic issues. Nhung and Dzung,
however, said the extraordinary series of critical
articles published ahead of the next Party Congress and
the novel way the Congress will be conducted signal a
trend toward more democracy in Vietnam.

Party Discipline
--------------


16. (SBU) The 14th Plenum also confirmed the decision
to reprimand Secretary of the Lang Son Provincial Party
Committee Hoang Cong Hoan for poor leadership and
"failure to follow Party procedures." According to
contacts in the Party, the official censure was the
final result of an expensive infrastructure debacle
involving the decision to move a cement factory in Lan
Son city and purchase new equipment for the factory.
Lang Son Party officials traveled to China (without
central permission, our contact said) and signed a deal
to import new equipment for the factory when the old
equipment was still serviceable. The new equipment
turned out to be useless and cost Lang Son a
substantial portion of its budget. The two Lang Son
deputy Party Chiefs also received reprimands. Hoan,
however, landed on his feet; although the Party decided
to remove him from the Lang Son Party Secretary
position, it has offered him a new one as the deputy
Chairman of the CPV's Financial Affairs Commission in
Hanoi, a more desirable and prestigious position.

Comment

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17. (SBU) Although the future government is starting to
crystallize around specific individuals as the Party
congress nears, we will not really know which factions
are ascendant within the CPV until the Congress plays
out. The half-hearted attempt to quash political
debate in the final run-up suggests that the CPV will
enter the Congress with a somewhat more reformist
agenda, but we should expect that after the Congress
there will be pressure on dissonant voices in the
Party, the Government and the media to unite behind the
new leadership and political platform. End Comment.

MARINE