PARTY'S 14TH PLENUM TO OPEN SOON; LEADERSHIP

UNCLAS HANOI 000596

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SENSITIVE
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STATE FOR EAP/MLS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR VM
SUBJECT: PARTY'S 14TH PLENUM TO OPEN SOON; LEADERSHIP
POSITIONS STILL UNCLEAR

Ref: Hanoi 222 and previous


1. (SBU) Summary: The Communist Party's Central Committee
will begin its 14th plenum March 18. What most likely will
be the final gathering before the (still unscheduled) 10th
Party Congress, this plenum will seek to address public
commentary on the Party's draft Political Report and
finalize senior personnel decisions. It remains unclear who
will assume what position, although the majority of
observers give the nod to Standing DPM Nguyen Tan Dzung to
become Prime Minister. End Summary.

14th Plenum To Open March 18
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2. (SBU) Putting an end to speculation, the Communist Party
of Vietnam's (CPV) Central Committee will meet on March 18
for its 14th plenum prior to the Party's 10th Congress.
According to Ngo Cuong, an aide to Central Committee member
and Supreme People's Court Presiding Judge Nguyen Van Hien,
the plenum will run for a week and will seek to address
public commentary on the draft Political Report (septel) and
nail down senior personnel decisions. In case the Central
Committee is unable to do this, there is precedent for
recessing the plenum and scheduling its continuation
immediately prior to the (still unscheduled) Party Congress.

Leadership Positions Remain Up In The Air
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3. (SBU) Following January's 13th Plenum, some pundits were
predicting the final Central Committee meeting would be held
in mid-February (reftel). However, National Assembly
Chairman and Politburo member Nguyen Van An's extended trip
to South America impacted the plenum's scheduling (he will
return to Hanoi shortly). Furthermore, the word on the
street is that the Party has had a difficult time reaching
consensus on senior leadership positions, including the CPV
General Secretary and State President. In one plausible
scenario, Standing Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dzung
will assume the position of Prime Minister and Hanoi City
Party Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong will take over as Chairman
of the National Assembly. More shaky predictions and rumors
involve who will take over as Party chief and President.
HCMC Party Secretary Nguyen Minh Triet is mentioned as a
possible candidate for either job, and current Party General
Secretary Nong Duc Manh may stay in place or assume the

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presidency. Or, it could be none of the above.

MARINE