Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06HANOI222
2006-01-27 07:44:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Hanoi
Cable title:  

Party's 13th Plenum Finalizes Party Documents,

Tags:  PGOV SOCI PINR VM 
pdf how-to read a cable
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RR RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHHI #0222/01 0270744
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 270744Z JAN 06
FM AMEMBASSY HANOI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0640
INFO RUEHHM/AMCONSUL HO CHI MINH CITY 0419
RUEHZS/ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 HANOI 000222 

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SENSITIVE
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STATE FOR EAP/MLS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV SOCI PINR VM
SUBJECT: Party's 13th Plenum Finalizes Party Documents,
Makes Only Minor Headway on Personnel Decisions

Ref: A) 05 Hanoi 2967; B) Hanoi 11; C) Hanoi 30; D) 05

HCMC 1155

HANOI 00000222 001.2 OF 003


UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 HANOI 000222

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SENSITIVE
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STATE FOR EAP/MLS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV SOCI PINR VM
SUBJECT: Party's 13th Plenum Finalizes Party Documents,
Makes Only Minor Headway on Personnel Decisions

Ref: A) 05 Hanoi 2967; B) Hanoi 11; C) Hanoi 30; D) 05

HCMC 1155

HANOI 00000222 001.2 OF 003



1. (SBU) Summary and Comment: Able to decide only on a
"long list" of possible candidates for the next Central
Committee, participants in the Communist Party of
Vietnam's 13th Plenum have put off to a 14th and final
plenum the ultimate decision on Central Committee
membership. At the plenum, a number of current high-
level Party officials reportedly received few votes of
confidence for retaining their membership in the
Central Committee. Key Party documents and proposed
changes to Party Statutes were also discussed and
approved. Although rumors abound about possible senior
leadership changes, it is still too early to tell who
will be in or out. The upcoming Tet Lunar New Year
holiday -- at which senior Party leaders meet to
exchange greetings -- will likely be the occasion to
make important personnel decisions. End Summary and
Comment.

No Decision On Next Central Committee Lineup
--------------


2. (SBU) The Central Committee of the Communist Party
of Vietnam (CPV) met January 11-18 to review candidates
for the next Central Committee, which will be approved
and launched by this spring's National Party Congress.
Senior Colonel Tran Nhung, former chief of the
international affairs division of "Quan Doi Nhan Dan"
(People's Army) newspaper, told us that participants in
the 13th Plenum tried but failed to approve a short
list of candidates to the next Central Committee. They
instead reached consensus on a "long list" of 280
possible candidates, which will be reviewed during the
14th (and final) Plenum, reportedly scheduled for
February 15. Of these 280, the current Central
Committee will certify a list of some 190 persons (160
full-time members and some 20-30 alternates without
voting rights). This list will be forwarded to the
Party Congress for its imprimatur. Although no firm
date has been set, the word on the street is that the
Congress will be held in April.


3. (SBU) Nhung noted that the CPV usually convenes only
thirteen plenums during a five-year term of a
particular Central Committee. However, because they

foresaw possible difficulties in nailing down personnel
decisions, participants in the 12th Plenum agreed that
there would be one more (14th) plenum right before the
Party Congress. This additional plenum and the time it
allows for further discussions will hopefully avoid
possible Party "disability" ahead of the Congress,
Nhung explained.


4. (SBU) According to Vietnam History Institute
Director Ngo Van Hoa, retiring Central Committee
members often have some surprises in store when it
comes to the debate on who will remain in the new
Central Committee. Those facing the end of their
political careers have more courage to speak their
"real thoughts." Based on the last two terms of the
Central Committee, around one-third of the current
membership will be replaced, Hoa predicted.

Leadership Changes: Scenarios abound
--------------


5. (SBU) Local observers have claimed that Party
progressives, particularly southerners, support a Party
leadership change scenario in which HCMC Party
Secretary Nguyen Minh Triet replaces current CPV

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General Secretary Nong Duc Manh, with Manh becoming
State President and Deputy Prime Minister Vu Khoan
rising to the post of Prime Minister. Conservative
elements, on the other hand, reportedly would like to
see CPV Personnel and Organization Commission chief
Tran Dinh Hoan become the Party Secretary or State
President.


6. (SBU) Describing one "progressive scenario," the
History Institute's Hoa noted that the 13th Plenum
again stipulated that Politburo members should not be
older than 65 years of age. This means that only six
of the current 14 Politburo members are eligible for
continued service. They are: Party Secretary Nong Duc
Manh, HCMC Party Secretary Nguyen Minh Triet, Hanoi
Party Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong, Standing Deputy Prime

HANOI 00000222 002.2 OF 003


Minister Nguyen Tan Dzung, CPV Economics Commission
chief Truong Tan Sang and Minister of Public Security
Le Hong Anh. Of them, HCMC Party Secretary Triet is
apparently being strongly backed by the Party's
"progressive faction," which includes former Prime
Minister Vo Van Kiet, to be the new Party General
Secretary, Hoa said. (A contact close to Kiet told

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ConGen HCMC January 27 that the Party tradition that
the General Secretary hail from the north, the
President from the center and the Prime Minister from
the south is not a factor in ongoing Party personnel
deliberations. A second contact in HCMC derided Nong
Duc Manh and was more optimistic in a recent meeting
about prospects for the Kiet wing of the Party to
prevail in both policy and personnel decisions.)


7. (SBU) Elaborating on Triet's progressive
credentials, Hoa reported that, at the recent HCMC
Party Congress, Triet supported certain aspects of
"political change." For example, he bucked Party norms
by allowing free nominations, as well as self-
nominations, to key Party positions. He also refused
to put forward names endorsed by the CPV Commission for
Personnel and Organization. Such "political change"
must have been strongly supported by former Prime
Minister Kiet, who himself has reportedly demanded free
nominations to key Party positions during past Party
Congresses. (Note: Last October, local observers
noted with interest a letter reportedly written by
Kiet, in which he criticized the current system of
personnel nominations and selection; that is, Party
Congress delegates merely rubber stamp decisions
already made by the Politburo and Central Committee.
Kiet claimed that this made the Politburo too powerful,
which violates Party Statutes. Kiet also said that he
had attended seven Party Congresses since 1951, and
that only the 2nd Party Congress in 1951 was conducted
in a "truly democratic manner." End Note.)

Another Version
--------------


8. (SBU) Ngo Cuong, Editor-in-Chief of the Supreme
People's Court-affiliated Judicial Journal, quoted his
boss and mentor, Supreme People's Court Presiding
Justice (and Central Committee member) Nguyen Van Hien,
as saying that at least half of the current 14
Politburo members are expected to step down following
the Party Congress, including State President Tran Duc
Luong, National Assembly Chairman Nguyen Van An,
Central Committee Secretariat Standing Member Phan Dien
and perhaps even Party Personnel and Organization
Commission chief Tran Dinh Hoan. However, the reason
for this large-scale retirement would not be age but
the results of the 13th Plenum's "vote of confidence"
on possible candidates for the next Central Committee.
State President Tran Duc Luong received a surprisingly
low vote of confidence of only nine percent. Phan Dien
received less than 20 percent, while Tran Dinh Hoan
himself came in with only 19 percent. Party Chief Nong
Duc Manh wound up with a 64 percent vote of confidence,
Hien reported.


9. (SBU) Hien also asserted that Central Committee
members who attended the 13th Plenum had "shown
courage," and that the Plenum was conducted in a
"democratic manner." Given the results of the vote, it
is likely that a number of current members of the
Central Committee will have no chance of remaining for
the next Central Committee, Hien said. However,
"nobody knows for sure what will happen." That said,
it seems certain that Prime Minister Phan Van Khai,
Defense Minister Pham Van Tra and CPV Ideology and
Culture Commission Chief Nguyen Khoa Diem are preparing
to retire, Hien added.

Party Documents
--------------


10. (SBU) Speaking at the closing session of the 13th
Plenum, Party Chief Nong Duc Manh said the Politburo
would soon publish the Political Report for comments
from Party members as well as citizens. The Political
Report is expected to confirm two changes to the Party
Statutes that were agreed upon by Central Committee
members. They are: 1) Party members are allowed to
conduct private economic activities without any
limitations on size (and entrepreneurs are allowed to

HANOI 00000222 003.2 OF 003


become Party members); and, 2) The CPV is the vanguard
of the working class as well as the Vietnamese people
and nation (as opposed to the current version, which is
merely the working class).


11. (SBU) Comment: While the conventional wisdom
agrees that PM Khai, Defense Minister Tra and Party
Ideology/Culture Commission chief Diem will probably
retire, our contacts' versions of possible leadership
changes are merely two of several scenarios currently
being discussed, rumored or rejected. For example,
another rumored scenario has President Luong, National
Assembly Chairman An and Party General Secretary Manh
switching positions among themselves. It is simply
still too early to tell what will happen. In fact, the
upcoming Tet Lunar New Year holiday -- during which
senior CPV leaders will visit each other's homes for
new year's greetings and drinking bouts -- will likely
be the occasion to debate and ultimately decide on
senior CPV personnel changes. End Comment.

BOARDMAN