VIETNAM A STAUNCH BUT SLOW SUPPORTER OF EAS

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TAGS: PREL PGOV ASEAN VM
SUBJECT: VIETNAM A STAUNCH BUT SLOW SUPPORTER OF EAS

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1. (SBU) Summary and Comment: Vietnam, originally opposed
to the East Asian Summit (EAS) because of fears it would
dilute ASEAN's influence, has become a strong supporter of
the new edifice in East Asian regional architecture.
Vietnam views the EAS now as a way to strengthen Asian unity
and bring more issues into multilateral forums. The
addition of Australia, New Zealand, India and (Vietnam
hopes) eventually Russia will bring greater engagement by
those nations in Southeast Asia, offsetting (and mellowing)
China's influence in the region. Despite this positive view
of the EAS, Vietnam is not likely in the short term to take
an active leadership role in this (or any) institution and
will avoid trend-setting on contentious issues, preferring
instead to join consensus after comprehensive rounds of
consultations with other ASEANs. Other ASEANs, Singapore in
particular, find Vietnam's go-slow tendencies difficult to
understand. End Summary and Comment.

MFA: MOVE SLOW AND MUMBLE PLATITUDES
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2. (SBU) Poloff met with MFA ASEAN Desk Officer Ha Thi Ngoc
Ha December 28 to discuss Vietnam's position in and on the
EAS. Ha was well-armed with the official EAS declaration
and a few talking points from the office of the MFA
Spokesman, and so provided "strong statements" reciting
Vietnam's "high appreciation" for this "historic event."
Vietnam notes that this was the first East Asia Summit, Ha
helpfully pointed out. After considerable prodding, she
acknowledged that Vietnam changed its tune on the EAS after
satisfying itself that ASEAN's position "in the driver's
seat" of the EAS changed the EAS from a mechanism to dilute
ASEAN's influence to one that elevated ASEAN's importance as
the anchor for an organization that will complement the
ASEAN+3. Ha also revealed that Vietnam supports the further
development of the EAS and the addition of Russia, a
position that she believes Indonesia and Singapore do not
support. The sticking point currently obstructing consensus
is the fact that some ASEAN countries disagree on the
question of whether there is "substantial" ASEAN-Russia
cooperation, one of the three criteria for membership in the
EAS.


3. (SBU) When asked about Vietnam's plans for the EAS, Ha
said that Vietnam supports the creation of an East Asian
Community (EAC) in the long term, but is concerned that in
the short term, severe differences in the development levels
of Asian countries would make that impossible. Vietnam
supports using the EAS as a mechanism to advance the goal of
narrowing the development gap between rich and poor. The
EAC "needs to be considered step-by-step over the long
term." At this point, the modalities of the EAS are not
agreed, she observed, with the question even of holding a
senior officials' meeting still not decided within ASEAN.
Vietnam supports the EAS, she concluded, but wants to ensure
that the plans for the EAS are "well considered" and that
the EAS does not take on more of a mandate than all member
countries think appropriate.

THINK TANK: KEEP IN MIND THAT VIETNAM IS NEW AT THIS
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4. (SBU) Director of Vietnam's Institute for Southeast Asian
Studies Dr. Pham Duc Thanh told Poloff December 29 that
Vietnam's stance on the EAS and EAC is based on its
perception that the emergence of an East Asian Community is
inevitable; that China will be the "nucleus" of such a
grouping; and that for ASEAN to retain its relevance and
importance it will have to make East Asian architecture as
inclusive as possible while guarding ASEAN prerogatives and
interests.


5. (SBU) Vietnam has evolved extremely quickly, Dr. Thanh
continued, from a country with a foreign policy slavishly
crafted according to the Soviet line to an ASEAN country
that has linked its future to other ASEAN countries'
collective success. "Very recently," Thanh said, "Vietnam
was the greatest enemy of ASEAN countries. Now the ASEAN
members are like brothers." Vietnam is still developing its
foreign policy proficiency and testing out possible
international roles. "You may be frustrated with Vietnam's
cautiousness, but you must remember we are just learning to
walk." Currently, Vietnamese foreign policy is
unsophisticated, he acknowledged, but Vietnam is developing
its outlook and capabilities in that area.


6. (SBU) The foreign affairs bureaucracy in Vietnam spent a
great deal of time and effort working out an appropriate

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response to the EAS, Dr. Thanh said, because this was a case
where Vietnam had to follow its own counsel and could not
rely on ASEAN consensus to guide its policy. In the end,
Vietnam decided that it would be best for Vietnam and ASEAN
if the EAS were to go forward with ASEAN in the driver's
seat and with as much participation as possible from outside
the ASEAN+3 grouping. Vietnam definitely wants Russia to
participate in EAS, he said, and sees a potentially
constructive role for the United States as well. Vietnam
has not considered the practical aspects of the EAC because
it seems too unrealistic at the moment. "In 100 years, we
may have an EAC," Dr. Thanh said, "but in the near future,
Japan and China seem too far apart." Still, some further
degree of intertwining and interdependence in Asia is
inevitable, and Vietnam wants to be sure it plays a
constructive role in that process that protects Vietnam's
interests, Thanh concluded.

"NEIGHBOR" DIPLOMATS: VIETNAM AGGRAVATINGLY UNPREDICTABLE
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7. (SBU) An exasperated Singaporean diplomat told Poloff
January 13 that Singapore has given up trying to determine
Vietnam's position towards the EAS or EAC. "We don't know
what they want, because they don't know what they want," the
diplomat complained. She confirmed that Vietnam has stated
its position definitively vis--vis Russian participation in
the EAS, but said that Vietnam has not thought that decision
through. "Singapore was not enthusiastic about the creation
of the EAS in the first place," she continued, "and nor was
Vietnam. But now that the EAS is a reality, we believe it
should be an effective and well-crafted group, and we are
concerned about some of Vietnam's positions." As an
example, she cited Vietnam's unwillingness to take a
position on the status of individual members. Singapore
wants to ensure that there is not "tiered membership" in the
EAS, with non-ASEAN+3 countries relegated to the cheap
seats, because this scenario would likely cause the interest
and commitment of India, Australia and New Zealand to
falter, ultimately playing into the hands of those who would
prefer to exclude those countries anyway. Vietnam should
oppose this if it genuinely supports an inclusive EAS. The
fact that Singapore cannot extract a commitment either way
on this issue is emblematic of Vietnam's frustrating
approach to the EAS and ASEAN issues in general, she said.

BOARDMAN