PROVINCIAL POLITICS IN ATLANTIC CANADA: WHO'S IN TROUBLE AND

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SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR WHA/CAN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV CA
SUBJECT: PROVINCIAL POLITICS IN ATLANTIC CANADA: WHO'S IN TROUBLE AND
WHO ISN'T


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1. SUMMARY: With spring legislative sessions due to start soon
in Atlantic Canada, we have taken a political snapshot at each
of the four provinces to see just where each of the four
governments (all currently Tory blue) stand. New Brunswick and
Nova Scotia, with their minority governments, present the most
interesting cases, especially since the respective premiers are
weighting the merits of calling snap elections. As for
Newfoundland-Labrador and Prince Edward Island, both provinces
are in the solid grip of strong governments that undoubtedly
will have no trouble living out their mandates. Another aspect
to the current political situation in the region is the
influence of the federal Tories and how new national policies
might help or harm their provincial cousins. END SUMMARY


2. New Brunswick
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--Lt. Governor: Hermenegilde Chiasson (Appointed for a five
year term on August 26, 2003)

--Premier: Bernard Lord - Progressive Conservatives Party of New
Brunswick

--Most Recent Election: June 9, 2003

--Current party standings in the House: (55 seats in total)
Progressive Conservatives: 27 seats (Leader: Bernard Lord
since 1997)
Liberals: 26 seats (Leader: Shawn Graham since 2002)
New Democratic Party: 0 seats (Leader: Allison Brewer
since 2005 - does not have a seat of her own yet)
Independents: 2 seats

--Election history: Bernard Lord and his Conservative party
have governed New Brunswick since they overturned the incumbent
Liberals in the June 1999 election.

--Current Environment: Election-watchers in New Brunswick are
divided in their predictions on the fate of Premier Lord and his
governing Tory party. The party recently lost its one seat
majority in the Legislature when a disgruntled backbencher left
the party to sit as an independent after a spat with the Premier
over a cabinet post. This defection has left the Tories in a
precarious situation with just weeks to go before they need to
get their annual budget passed in the Legislature. Without a
majority in the Legislature, the Premier is in danger of having
the Opposition Liberals defeat the budget, a move which would
trigger a provincial general election. Accordingly, Premier
Lord is left with having to decide on two scenarios: number
one, try to convince the former Tory to support the budget which
would keep the government in power, or number two, table the
budget and then call a snap election before the Legislature has
a chance to vote on it.

Opinions are varied on which of these scenarios the Premier will
chose, but in recent days, more cynical commentators are saying
the issue could be settled by money, specifically, legislative
pensions. It appears that 20 members of the House (including
the ex-Tory) need only one more legislative session in order to
quality for their pensions. The dilemma for these members is
that if they help prop up the Lord government so it makes it
through the next session, they would get their pensions.
However, if the government falls and there is an election they
would only get the pension if they were re-elected - an iffy
prospect for some of the members. With the budget vote
scheduled for April 7, the Premier's decision will not be long
coming.


3. Nova Scotia
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--Lt. Governor: Myra Freeman (Appointed for a five-year term in
May 2000 which has been extended until a new LG is chosen.)

--Premier: Rodney MacDonald - Progressive Conservative

--Most Recent Election: August 5, 2003

--Current Party Standings in the House: (52 seats in total)
Progressive Conservatives: 25 (Leader: Rodney MacDonald
since Feb 11, 2006)
New Democratic Party: 15 (Leader: Darrell Dexter since June
4, 2001)
Liberal Party: 10 (Leader: Francis MacKenzie since Oct 23,
2004 - does not have a seat of his own yet)
Independent: 1
Vacant: 1

--Election History: The Progressive Conservatives have been

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governing Nova Scotia since July 1999 when they defeated the
incumbent Liberal government by a wide majority.

--Current Environment: Nova Scotians appear to be quite happy
with their newly minted Premier, 34-year old Rodney MacDonald,
who took over from the now-retired former Premier John Hamm in
February. Despite the change in leadership, the face of the new
government is unlikely to change significantly. Premier
MacDonald has kept most of the Hamm cabinet members and has done
nothing as yet to shake the fragile coalition with the
Opposition parties that has kept his minority government in
power. However, a recent public opinion poll shows the new
MacDonald government with significant support over the
opposition, a fact which may tempt the new Premier to call a
snap election in an attempt to get his own mandate. As with the
situation in New Brunswick, the answer to the question of
whether Nova Scotians will be going to the polls should be known
before too long as the spring session of the legislature is due
to start shortly.



4. Newfoundland and Labrador
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--Lt. Governor: Edward M. Roberts (Appointed for a five year
term on November 1, 2002)

--Premier: Danny Williams (Party: Progressive Conservative)

--Most recent election: October 21, 2003

--Current Party Standings in the House (48 seats in total)
Conservatives 35 (Leader: Danny Williams since April 7,
2001)
Liberals: 11 (Leader: Jim Bennett since February 6, 2006.
Has no seat.)
New Democratic Party: 2 (Leader: Jack Harris since
November, 1992; retiring in May 2006)

--Election History: With their win in the October 2003
provincial election, Premier Williams and his Tories upset a
12-year old Liberal government.

--Current Environment: Premier Williams and his Progressive
Conservative party are enjoying a very comfortable majority.
With an approval rating of approximately 70 percent, the Tories
have a solid grip on the province leaving the Opposition
liberals and NDP floundering. For the most part, the Premier,
with a reputation as a staunch fighter for his province, is the
principal reason behind this support. In particular Williams'
recent defense of Canada's annual seal hunt in the face of harsh
criticism by rock superstar Paul McCartney even swayed over some
of the Premier's harshest critics. However, it is Williams'
tough resource policy which consistently garners him the most
favor. The Premier has been unwavering in his threat that
Newfoundland-Labrador's significant petroleum and hydro
electricity resources will go undeveloped unless the province
gets better royalty deals than those for existing energy
projects. Expect smooth sailing for the Williams government
with no clouds on the horizon as yet.


5. Prince Edward Island
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--Lt. Governor: J. Leonce Bernard (Appointed for a five year
term on May 28, 2001)

--Premier: Patrick Binns (Party: Progressive Conservatives)

--Most Recent Election: September 29, 2003

--Current Party Standings in the House (27 seats in total)
Conservatives: 23 (Leader: Patrick Binns since May 4, 1996)
Liberals: 4 (Leader: Robert Ghiz since April 5, 2003)
New Democratic Party: 0 (Leadership convention April 22,
2006)

--Election History: Pat Binns and the Progressive Conservatives
have been governing Prince Edward Island since 1996 when they
overturned a 10-year incumbent Liberal government.

--Current Environment: Premier Binns and his ruling Conservative
party have a solid hold on the Island electorate, consistently
earning high scores in public opinion polls. This situation has
made it difficult for the Opposition Liberals to make any
inroads and they continue to suffer from only a token
representation in the Legislature. Just this week, the Liberals
were further demoralized by their loss in a provincial
by-election which, had they won, would have given them a much

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needed new seat and a significant psychological boost.


6. COMMENT: An interesting sidebar to this snapshot is the
influence of the new Harper government in Ottawa. As one
political commentator remarked recently the issue here is money
- money for health care, money for childcare, money for tax cuts
and rebates and the list goes on. At the moment, Atlantic
Canadians are looking for some action from Ottawa on these
issues and the regional pollsters point out that the voters'
perception is that they are more likely to see results if the
federal government and the four provincial governments are all
of the same political stripe. Whether that federal influence
continues to have a positive impact or not remains to be seen,
but at least for now, the voters are hopeful that their
respective governments can and will work with Ottawa to come up
with some new solutions to some old problems. END COMMENT
HILL