NOVA SCOTIA ELECTION: INCUMBENT CONSERVATIVES BACK WITH

UNCLAS HALIFAX 000112

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR WHA/CAN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL CA
SUBJECT: NOVA SCOTIA ELECTION: INCUMBENT CONSERVATIVES BACK WITH
SMALLER MINORITY

REF: HALIFAX 0110


1. SUMMARY: Nova Scotia Premier Rodney MacDonald will serve
another term in office following the June 13 provincial
election, but once again, as the leader of another minority
government. MacDonald's Progressive Conservative Party failed
to get enough seats to capture a clear majority and the
re-elected Premier will again be looking to form a
collaborative arrangement with the second place New Democrats
and third-place Liberals. If there is a victor in this
inconclusive contest it was the NDP, which picked up five seats
to a historic high of 20. END SUMMARY


2. Nova Scotians woke up the day after the June 13 provincial
election wondering why they even had gone to the polls as
nothing has changed significantly on the political landscape.
At the time of his election call, Nova Scotia Premier Rodney
MacDonald and his Progressive Conservatives had 25 seats in the
52-seat Legislature, the NDP 15, and the Liberals 10 (There was
also one independent and one vacancy.) Now MacDonald has found
himself in a slightly worse situation with 23 seats, versus the
NDP with 20, and the Liberals with nine. One of our IVLP
candidates, NDP house leader Kevin Deveaux, won re-election with
64% of the vote.


3. All three political parties had big hopes for the campaign.
MacDonald was looking for a clear majority to end the almost
three-year stalemate situation his party had in the legislature.
The party did not make a hoped-for breakthrough in MacDonald's
home region of Cape Breton, and lost two races close that they
had to win, in the district of Queens (usually solid Tory
territory) and in downtown Halifax Citadel, where Tory
leadership hopeful Bill Black lost by less than 200 votes to NDP
candidate (and Consulate contact) Leonard Preyra. The NDP were
looking for an historic breakthrough to see them form the
first-ever NDP government east of Ontario, and while they did
not get that, they did get their all-time best result. The
Liberals were looking to at least better their count in the
House dominated by the PCs and the NDP; in the event their
leader, Francis MacKenzie, failed in his bid to be elected in
Bedford, a Halifax suburb, and will step down as leader soon,
leaving the party further in disarray. With no clear victor in
the election, it's now back to the negotiating table to see if
the three parties can work out another collaborative deal to
keep the government functioning.


4. COMMENT: Strategists will be going over the results in the
post-mortem phase of the election to explain just how and why
Nova Scotians ended up voting for virtually the same
configuration as they had before in the House. Whatever the
reason, the voters have spoken and Premier MacDonald has little
choice but to go cap in hand to the NDP and the Liberals to ask
for their support. We will see an early indication of just how
successful the re-elected Premier will be in that endeavor as he
must quickly open the legislature and pass the budget that was
held up by the election events. To add to his worries he will
have to make some required revisions to the document in his new
quest to pay for a fistful of campaign promises for an election
he had hoped would have had a different ending. We do not see
any significant changes in provincial attitudes on bilateral
issues. END COMMENT

HILL