GUATEMALA-BELIZE RELATIONS IMPROVING DESPITE

UNCLAS GUATEMALA 000654

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PREF EAID PBTS OAS BH GT
SUBJECT: GUATEMALA-BELIZE RELATIONS IMPROVING DESPITE
MOSTLY FRUITLESS BORDER NEGOTIATIONS

REF: A. 2005 GUATEMALA 1009

B. 2005 GUATEMALA 1813


1. (SBU) Summary. On March 23 and 24 in Antigua, Guatemala,
delegates from Guatemala, Belize, and Honduras met to begin
negotiating maritime boundaries in the Gulf of Honduras.
Following the meeting, the parties issued a public statement
expressing their satisfaction in having concluded a cordial
and productive meeting. On March 30, poloff met with
Ambassador Gustavo Orellana, a former foreign minister,
member of Guatemala's negotiating delegation, and head of the
Belize Commission. While he was mostly positive about the
process, Orellana expressed Guatemala's ongoing frustration
with the posture of Belize. He was, however, very positive
about the state of the Guatemala-Belize bilateral
relationship, which he described as "continuously improving."
He reiterated the GOG's commitment to finally resolving the
territorial dispute, to pursuing bilateral negotiations, and
to normalizing relations with Belize. End Summary.

Background
--------------


2. (U) The March 23-24 ministerial-level meeting began the
first phase of a new stage of negotiations based on the
"Agreement over a Framework for Negotiations and Confidence
Building Measures" signed in Washington in September 2005.
Since September, ministers from the two countries have met on
several occasions, under OAS auspices, to work out the
details of that plan. In a November 2005 meeting, Guatemala
and Belize agreed to the OAS recommendation to address the
three areas of dispute--land, insular, and
maritime--separately, with the provision that no agreements
on any area would enter into force until a final agreement
was reached on all issues. In a February, 2006 meeting at
the OAS, the Secretary General recommended the parties begin
the first phase with maritime issues, on which it appeared
they would make the most progress in the shortest timeframe.
At that time they also resolved to include Honduras in the
maritime negotiations.


3. (U) The outcome of the March 23-24 meeting was to
establish technical working groups to examine specific
aspects of the maritime dispute. According to Orellana, each
country has created its own working group and the three will
convene in Belize City on 20-21 of April.

A difficult negotiating partner
--------------


4. (SBU) Orellana expressed Guatemala's ongoing frustration
with the Belizean posture, which he described as "rigid."
Other members of the commission, who joined poloff's meeting
with Orellana, added that the Belizean negotiators required
"careful handling" and that negotiating with Belize is
"exhausting." They said, for example, that Belize again
tried to impose unrealistically short timeframes for
resolving long lists of issues. They speculated that Belize
is simply "going through the motions" in order to derail
bilateral negotiations and force the dispute to move to
international court. They underscored the futility of that
approach since, without some prior concessions from Belize,
the Guatemalan Congress won't approve holding a popular
referendum as required by the Guatemalan constitution.


5. (SBU) Orellana said he wanted it understood that while
Guatemala's territorial demands must, for legal reasons, be
presented in certain terms, the Guatemalan position is much
more flexible than it appears and Guatemalan negotiators are
open to creative solutions. He said that the press and
public's expectations are unrealistic and emphasized that the
GOG doesn't expect a sovereign nation to cede a large part of
its territory.


6. (SBU) Commission members also took the opportunity to
express their disappointment that the British government has
not taken a more active role in resolving the dispute. They
said they wished that the U.K. would use its influence to
persuade Belize to adopt a more flexible negotiating position.


7. (U) Orellana said that OAS involvement has been
indispensable and added that Guatemala welcomes other
countries' support of the negotiating process.

Good neighbors
--------------


7. (SBU) Orellana was mostly positive and optimistic about

improvements in the bilateral relationship as a result of
confidence building measures undertaken in recent years, an
assessment shared by other Commission members. Orellana said
the two countries had agreed not to allow ongoing
negotiations over the territorial dispute to stand in the way
of efforts to strengthen their relationship. Nevertheless,
they complained that Guatemalan citizens are not treated as
well in Belize as Belizean citizens are treated in Guatemala.



8. (U) Poloff took the opportunity to follow up on recent,
confused reports that two Guatemalan farmers were shot to
death by Belizean authorities. Orellana confirmed that the
reports were false; in fact, two Guatemalans were detained by
Belizean police but have since been released. He added that
these false reports are not uncommon and that the GOG has
learned to respond cautiously.


9. (SBU) Comment. Members of Guatemala's Belize Commission
expressed frustration and skepticism that isn't conveyed in
Foreign Minister Briz's recent public statements which tend
to be positive about the negotiations. While it's
encouraging that the two countries have agreed on a framework
and are meeting regularly, those meetings are unlikely to
progress while the parties' positions remain irreconcilable.
It seems unlikely that Congress would consider approving a
popular referendum without at least some territorial
concessions from Belize, and Belize holds fast to its
commitment not to cede "even an inch" to Guatemala.
Meanwhile, the two countries have made a conscious decision
to relegate the dispute to a sidebar rather than allowing it
to dominate their relationship. End comment.
DERHAM