AMBITIOUS BUT VAGUE AGENDA FOR REMAINDER OF BERGER

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 000106

SIPDIS

DEPT PASS USTR

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON EFIN ETRD EINV PGOV EAGR GT
SUBJECT: AMBITIOUS BUT VAGUE AGENDA FOR REMAINDER OF BERGER
PRESIDENCY



1. (SBU) At a press conference on January 10, Guatemalan
President Berger and Vice President Stein presented their plan
of government for 2006 through 2008. Berger and his economic
team followed up with more details at a January 17 event
hosted by the Guatemalan American Chamber of Commerce
(AmCham),where Berger spoke along with the Ambassador. The
program's three pillars: social development, democratic
security, and jobs; will be supported by improving
transparency and infrastructure. The plan stresses the
government's ongoing concern for the critical issues of
security and job creation, but lacks details. The
announcement of the plan came as polls showed a steep decline
in Berger's approval rating since the beginning of his term.
End Summary.

The 2006 2008 Agenda
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2. (U) Social Policy: Berger pledged to "rehabilitate the
social fabric," making reference to family and public
security, productivity, and new investments in health and
education infrastructure, including the opening of 300 low-
cost pharmacies. He seeks to strengthen community and family-
level participation in Guatemalan development, and outlined an
affirmative action program to recruit 300 young indigenous
employees for the public administration.


3. (U) Democratic Security: Acknowledging that crime and
security continue to be the administration's Achilles heel,
Berger pledged to support the justice sector and the
penitentiary system (including the construction of four new
prisons). He challenged Congress to approve new security
laws, and referenced a work program that targets vulnerable
youth in gang-infested areas.


4. (U) Job Creation: The Berger administration will promote
investment and increase competitiveness through support for
small and medium businesses, rural development, and efficient
registry and protection for property rights. It will build on
Guatemala's excellent macro-economic indicators to expand
access to credit for small businesses. Berger's team also
mentioned policies that support migrants, national statistics
and youth employment.

The plan will be supported by:
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5. (U) Infrastructure: Development of plans for potable
water, environmental health, the national airport, energy
sector reform, and the highway system. The airport plan
includes renovating the country's five largest airports, with
$65 million programmed for the capitol's La Aurora. Energy
sector reform will focus on alternative sources of energy such
as geothermal, hydroelectric and wind, along with efforts to
attract a Mexican-backed heavy crude refining facility and new
petroleum exploration projects. Infrastructure improvements
will support the "three pillars" of social development,
security and jobs, through increased investment and improved
international competitiveness.


6. (U) Transparency: The focus will be on promoting
transparency through social auditing and strengthening the
executive's transparency mechanisms, with an emphasis on
bringing municipalities into centralized procurement systems.
New social alliances and institutional reforms are to increase
participation and transparency in government operations.


7. (U) At the January 10 press conference, Vice President
Stein went on to describe a five-part security plan, covering
issues as varied as indigenous family security to improved
lighting in urban areas, with a focus on 150 high-risk
neighborhoods. He challenged Congress to support justice
sector reform legislation; and committed to improve civil
intelligence capabilities, increase and improve the national
police, and redesign the penitentiary system. He also
announced the creation of a fourth Deputy Minister of
Government to support criminal investigations in the court
system and Public Ministry. Berger backed up these
initiatives during his AmCham speech, emphasizing his
determination to confront the security problem, which he
feared could jeopardize Guatemala's development by stifling
investment.

Comment: Big goals, but will action follow?
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8. (SBU) The GOG's announcement focused on increased security
and employment - areas that consistently top polls of citizen
concerns. However, with its grandiose language and broad
scope, it reads more like a campaign speech than an actual
plan of action. The focus and ambition of the plan is
laudable, but it includes few new tangible specifics. There
are several notable exceptions, such as airport improvements,
which have a timetable, financing, and detailed plans. It
remains to be seen if the relevant cabinet members will
follow-up this announcement with more specific, action-
oriented plans to turn this broad vision into a reality. With
just two years left, the Berger administration will need to
produce results to assure that a like-minded administration
comes to power in the 2007 elections. Progress can easily be
derailed as key officials, policymakers and congressmen begin
jockeying for position in anticipation of the elections.


DERHAM