GUATEMALAN NATIONAL DIALOGUE OFF TO SHAKY START

UNCLAS GUATEMALA 001012

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PHUM ELAB EAID PGOV EFIN EAGR GT
SUBJECT: GUATEMALAN NATIONAL DIALOGUE OFF TO SHAKY START



1. The GOG kicked off a new national dialogue on social
issues on May 15. Formally called the National Accords for
the Implementation of Social Spending and the Reduction of
Poverty, the effort aims to bring together elements of
Guatemalan government and society to share ideas on
addressing poverty and social inequality. In addition to GOG
officials, participants will include representatives from
NGOs, labor, indigenous groups, human rights organizations,
the business sector, and political parties. The dialogue,
led by Vice President Stein, will have four major thematic
&axes8: Rural Development, Health and Nutrition,
Indigenous Groups and Inclusion, and Transparency and Social
Auditing. Each theme will be covered by a subgroup that will
have three months to draft recommendations for GOG actions to
reduce poverty.


2. During the launch of the Accords, it was clear that
longstanding social and political divides remain firmly
entrenched. This was particularly evident in details as
small as the seating of the attendees, with the room almost
evenly divided between the white and ladino business and
government leaders on the left side and significantly
indigenous origin civil sector representatives on the right.
When Nery Barrios, a prominent left-leaning labor leader,
addressed the audience he used the opportunity to harshly
criticize the GOG, a stance that drew strong applause from
the right side of the room and silence from the left side of
the room.


3. Comment: The GOG's poor track record on social issues
means that a significant number of civil sector
representatives may decline to participate in the dialogue, a
stance that may lead business sector and possibly even
political party representatives to also sit out the process.
(Note: Neither CACIF, the principal Guatemalan business
lobby organization nor the Catholic Church have yet made
decisions about their participation in the dailogue. End
note.) Because of these deep-seated, institutionalized
differences, and the short time frame (three months) given to
make recommendations, we believe that the dialogue has little
chance of success. Despite very limited prospects for
success, the GOG is moving ahead. Judging from the focus and
language of the GOG summary of the Accord process, one of the
objectives for the exercise is to improve Guatemala's chances
to qualify for a Millenium Challenge Account
Derham