Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06GUANGZHOU18102
2006-06-21 08:37:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Consulate Guangzhou
Cable title:  

New Property Measures Should Have Little Immediate

Tags:  EINV ETRD ECON SOCI CH 
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P 210837Z JUN 06
FM AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1441
INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 GUANGZHOU 018102 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/CM
USPACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EINV ETRD ECON SOCI CH

SUBJECT: New Property Measures Should Have Little Immediate
Effect on South China

REF: A) Guangzhou 17422

(U) THIS DOCUMENT IS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. PLEASE
PROTECT ACCORDINGLY. NOT FOR RELEASE OUTSIDE U.S.
GOVERNMENT CHANNELS. NOT FOR INTERNET PUBLICATION.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 GUANGZHOU 018102

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/CM
USPACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EINV ETRD ECON SOCI CH

SUBJECT: New Property Measures Should Have Little Immediate
Effect on South China

REF: A) Guangzhou 17422

(U) THIS DOCUMENT IS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. PLEASE
PROTECT ACCORDINGLY. NOT FOR RELEASE OUTSIDE U.S.
GOVERNMENT CHANNELS. NOT FOR INTERNET PUBLICATION.


1. (SBU) Summary: The Central Government recently announced
six new measures to guide property development and the real
estate market. The government hopes that measures on
transparency, capital gains tax and increased low-income
housing development will help slow down rising property
prices. Thus far the laws have had only a slight effect in
Guangdong province, which has some one of China's most
expensive real estate zones. Guangdong property consultants
are not advising any changes in their development strategies
and believe the law might create more damage than benefit
because of mismanagement at the local level. End summary.


Background on the National Measures
--------------


2. (U) Housing prices throughout China have been rising
rapidly in the past few years. In April, the National
Development and Reform Commission reported property prices
in 70 of China's largest cities rose an average of 5.6
percent year-on-year in March. Prices in several cities
rose more than 10 percent. For example, in the first
quarter of last year, Beijing and Shanghai prices rose by
8.2 percent 5.4 percent respectively. In South China,
Guangzhou prices rose by 10.73 percent while Shenzhen rose
by 16.3 percent, the second highest in China. The average
urban resident has to spend 13 years of salary to acquire a
flat of only 70 square meters, double the international
average of six to seven years. Some Chinese refer to the
concept of "fangnu" or mortgage slave to those who spend
more than 50 percent of their income on mortgage (economists
say spending 33 percent of a salary on mortgage is typically
the maximum allowed by banks). Zou Tao, a Shenzhen-based
activist for property law improvement, captured national
attention and the support of many middle-class Chinese when
he wrote an open letter on the internet petitioning for a
three-year property boycott throughout China (see ref A).


Economics of the Market in Guangdong
--------------


3. (SBU) Local analysts point to several reasons for the
rapid rise in real estate prices in Guangdong, some of which
mirror national trends. A shortage of land, particularly in
downtown areas, has led to an increase in land prices. On
the outskirts of cities such as Guangzhou and Shenzhen,
where factories abut farms, land prices are increasing as
well. Rising land and real estate prices have led to an
increase in the number of speculators. Without active or
open capital markets such as stocks and bonds, these
speculators see real estate as the most profitable form of
investment. In addition, developers are devoting a larger
proportion of their projects to luxury apartments, because
the additional space and amenities can fetch profits far
beyond the costs. Finally, the effect of China's rising GDP
on prices has been exaggerated in Guangdong, where GDP rose
12.5 percent in 2005 -- faster than the national average of
9.8 percent.


The Bubble: About to Burst or Just a Slow Leak?
--------------


4. (SBU) Many real estate consultants agree that, although
current prices do not reflect it, the market is structurally
oversupplied with housing. According to economic theory,
individuals tend to buy increasingly more expensive
property, immediately move into it, and create supply for
less expensive housing. The problem in Guangdong Province
is that the market is full of "chaofangren", or house
hoarders, who buy valuable property and hold the land
waiting for the price to rise. Therefore the secondary
market has no growth and prices remain high. To worsen the
situation, some speculators have bought property with bank
loans, on which they have difficult even paying back the
interest. These people are called "jia gao wu shi" (high
price, no possession). Given the oversupply of housing,

GUANGZHOU 00018102 002 OF 003


real estate consultants predict that in the long-term,
housing prices should fall in Guangdong. When this drop
happens, many of these land speculators could go bankrupt.
A similar situation occurred in Guangdong Province after the
1997-1998 Asian financial crisis. Guangzhou today still has
many unfinished apartment complexes and shopping centers
that were never completed because a burst in the market
bubble undermined construction cash flows.

Government Response: National and Provincial
--------------


5. (U) On May 17, in the likely wake of the rising prices,
simmering public discontent and fears of a real estate
bubble, Premier Wen Jiabao and the State Council unveiled
six broad measures. The six measures, which focus on the
residential sector, include requirements that at least 70
percent of all new apartments be of no more than 90 square
meters, properties sold within five years of purchase will
be subject to a capital gains tax, and developers finance 35
percent of a project themselves and begin building within
two years. In addition, local authorities must disclose
information on housing development.


6. (SBU) Guangzhou Prefecture has already begun seeking to
implement some of State Council's measures. On May 24, the
Nanfang Daily reported on seven measures adopted by the
Guangdong Housing Association to improve the housing
situation. The measures included increasing the supply of
land for residential apartments and encouraging the
construction of small (less than 100 square meters)
apartments through the use of financial tools such as
interest rates and taxes. The major Guangdong Housing
authorities (the Land and Resources Bureau, Housing
Administration Bureau and the Housing Association) recently
held a closed-door meeting with real estate companies and
housing agencies. They reportedly plan to issue new housing
policies by the end of June. On May 30, Guangdong
Province's Department of Construction announced a 12 percent
year-on-year increase in the amount of land available in the
province for commercial development.

Property Experts Show Little Concern
--------------


7. (SBU) Violet Chen, a Guangdong property consultant for
U.S. investors in China, said she is not greatly concerned
about the policies. Although the government is providing
incentives for low-income housing development, Chen is not
advising her clients to build such projects. Medium to
large-sized (50-100 employees) Chinese real estate firms,
however, have fewer options. Chen says they face three
options: either switch out of the residential sector; live
with low profit margins; or layoff workers. In the next
three years she expects a big price drop, especially in
residential apartments. Chen says, when the South China
market declines, "it drops hard." Chen predicts a drop of
between 20-40 percent. In fact, on May 9, the Director
General of the Guangdong Land and Resources Department
affirmed that in three years the housing prices will
certainly be more "rational".


8. (SBU) He Shihong, managing director of Evergreen
consultants, a Guangzhou based real-estate consultancy firm
with projects throughout China, was also not overly
concerned about the laws. Mr. He advises his clients to not
change any investment plans immediately. He described how a
previous stamp tax law on property transactions was also
supposed to change the market, but was never implemented.
The current law does not state how long it will be
implemented either.

Avoiding the Law
--------------


9. (SBU) Both Chen and He described how investors could
possibly avoid some of the new property laws. For example,
in terms of the capital gains taxes, Chen said "most people
do not pay attention to the taxes." Typically buyers
prefer not to list property as high as they actually paid
for it. Some developers are hedging their bets, however, by
buying before the deadline. Evergreen consultants mentioned
that many new property deals have come in the past few days

GUANGZHOU 00018102 003 OF 003


in order to avoid any new tax implications.

Comment: More Harm than Good?
--------------


10. (SBU) The new property measures are obviously a part of
Hu Jintao's agenda for a "harmonious society". Hu is
concerned with the instability stemming from a large income
gap between rich and poor and the inability for even middle-
class Chinese to afford housing in coastal cities. In a
country with such rapid growth and limited investment
channels, however, a rise in property prices is almost
inevitable. The question is whether property law reform is
the proper tool to resolve the problem. South China has
already begun to slightly feel the effects of the new
regulations. Guangzhou's Land, Resources and Housing
Management Bureau said the average cost of housing in the
city fell 2.49 percent per square meter in May. In
Shenzhen, however, the price continues to rise. Analysts
believe that it is difficult to assume the drop in the
Guangzhou price is solely related to the new measures.


11. (SBU) In general, real estate consultants are very
critical of the efficacy of the new laws in the long term.
Despite the efforts on the national level, the consultants
believe better management is needed on the local level. In
terms of low-incoming housing, many developers do not want
to take on such projects because the profits are so slim --
approximately three percent. Many of the residents who are
eligible to live in the housing are so poor they cannot make
payments on time. Even if low-incoming housing is
developed, there will be long waiting times and
inconsistencies in distribution. Additionally, low-income
measurements are based on "average social incomes". This
figure differs greatly between rural and urban areas.
Finally, the plan to allow more transparency of projects
could also backfire. The measures essentially call for
opening up city plans to the public. This will mean
developers can easily learn about location for future
develop programs and buy up the land accordingly.

DONG