The Long March to Avian Influenza Preparedness in

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GUANGZHOU 011674

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR CA/OCS/ACS ATTN: ELIZABETH RYAN
STATE PASS TO NIH
USDOC FOR 4420/ITA/MAC/MCQUEEN, CELICO, DAS LEVINE
STATE FOR USTR
USPACOM FOR FPA
USPACOM ATTN: MAJOR PBREED

E.O. 12958
TAGS: TBIO KFLU CACS AMED ASEC ECON CH
SUBJECT: The Long March to Avian Influenza Preparedness in
South China

REF: A) GUANGZHOU 3688, B) GUANGZHOU 4395, C) GUANGZHOU

6175, D) GUANGZHOU 6294, E) GUANGZHOU 6984, F) GUANGZHOU
8517, G) GUANGZHOU 9084

(U) THIS DOCUMENT IS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. PLEASE
PROTECT ACCORDINGLY. NOT FOR RELEASE OUTSIDE U.S.
GOVERNMENT CHANNELS. NOT FOR INTERNET PUBLICATION.


1. (SBU) Summary: Professional polls and Post's informal
surveys show that only about half of American businesses in
South China are actively planning for an Avian Influenza
(AI) outbreak despite scientific reports that AI among birds
is endemic in Guangdong, with concomitant higher risks of
human-to-human transmission breaking out in this area. Many
private American citizens also believe, however, that the
U.S. Government will provide transport out of China and
provide antiviral medicine if human-to-human transmission
occurs and pandemic conditions emerge. Post's active
outreach stresses that while the USG is committed to doing
all it can to protect American citizens abroad, it would be
prudent for them to prepare for a possible situation in
which USG and/or other governments' resources are not
available. End Summary.


2. (SBU) Post's outreach effort continues to provide
information and tips on planning for a potential Avian
Influenza (AI) outbreak. Since December 1, 2005, Consulate
staff members have presented AI information to American
citizens and corporate representatives at American Citizen
Service outreach meetings, OSAC meetings and American
Chamber of Commerce receptions and events. The audiences
have varied in size. Since the inception of Post's AI
Working Group last December, Post has conducted more than 20
such meetings. In an effort to maximize the impact of the
Department's message, we will conduct a town hall meeting
next month at the largest American School in Guangzhou for
all Americans resident in the area.

Still at Ground Zero
--------------

3. (U) While the spread of AI to other continents in the
last three months has been the focus of the media's
attention, report's on AI's epidemiological history indicate
that southern China remains a potent source. A February
scientific report completed by researchers from institutions
in China, Hong Kong, Vietnam and Indonesia, noted that
"genetic analysis of H5N1 avian flu viruses collected from
wild and domestic birds in China suggests the virus has
spread in uncontrolled fashion in southern China for the
past decade, igniting outbreaks in Vietnam on at least three
occasions and triggering spread of the worrisome virus
across Russia to eastern Europe." They conclude that the
virus remains endemic in southern China and that most viral
mutations will come from this source.


4. (U) The same report, argues that the only way to
minimize the damage done by the virus and reduce the risk it
poses to human health is by addressing the problem at the
virus's birthplace, in the poultry flocks of southern China.
Another report states that the prevalence of human co-
habitation with flocks of domestic birds, large breeding
populations of hogs and birds on the same farm and the
limited distance between farming villages and cities makes
Asia a likely place for the first appearance of a virulent
form of AI.

Message Clearly Heard - Half Understood?
--------------

5. (U) Professional pollsters and our own informal surveys
continue to show that while the level of AI awareness among
Americans in southern China is higher than before, only
about one-half of American companies and resident citizens
are prepared or are preparing to face a pandemic event
(Reftel A). These polls show that while more businesses are

GUANGZHOU 00011674 002 OF 002


beginning to plan for an AI pandemic, only about 50 percent
have actually drafted a plan to meet the challenge. Post
conducted an informal survey of senior managers and
corporate treasurers at a recent event hosted by the
American Chamber of Commerce (AMCHAM). While this survey
included only 13 senior managers (one response per company
with American expatriate staff),the results were in line
with the larger Hewlett poll, but significantly more
revealing on expectations regarding the U.S. Government
response to a pandemic.


6. (SBU) Reflecting the Hewlett poll, 54 percent of the
American companies in Post's survey replied that they have a
written AI plan. A smaller number, 46 percent have advised
staff to store food and water, while 69 percent said they
expect the Consulate to remain open during a pandemic. For
these corporate respondents, 31 percent said that they
expected the U.S. Government to assist with the relocation
of personnel in a pandemic.


7. (SBU) Over a period of two weeks, Post provided the same
survey questions to resident Americans visiting the
Consulate's American Citizen Services Office. 57 percent
have begun to store food and water. 28 percent said they
expect the US Government to provide assistance to relocate
in the event of a pandemic. Americans also commented that
they expect the U.S. Government to provide food and
medicines (one specified Tamiflu) in the event of a
pandemic.

It's (Mostly) Good News and Bad News
--------------

8. (SBU) Surveys show that the American community in South
China is engaged on the topic of AI. Large American
employers are planning for a potential pandemic in
increasing numbers. Post will continue its active outreach
effort to better educate the public on sources of credible
information to assist in their AI planning. We will
continue to note that the Consulate regards the safety of
American citizens abroad in its consular district as its
highest priority and that in a pandemic situation it will
utilize and seek as many USG and other resources as
possible. At the same time, however, the Consulate will
continue to stress self-reliance and frankly report the
limited assistance that might be available from the U.S.
Government in the event of a pandemic.

Dong