Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06GUANGZHOU11045
2006-04-10 07:01:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Consulate Guangzhou
Cable title:  

Ma May Not Make It -- Xiamen University Taiwan

Tags:  PREL PGOV ECON PINR TW CH 
pdf how-to read a cable
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DE RUEHGZ #1045/01 1000701
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 100701Z APR 06
FM AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4429
INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEKJCS/DIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GUANGZHOU 011045 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/CM, EAP/RSP/TC
STATE PASS USTR STRATFORD
USDOC FOR 4420/ITA/MAC/MCQUEEN, CELICO, DAS LEVINE
USPACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON PINR TW CH
SUBJECT: Ma May Not Make It -- Xiamen University Taiwan
Experts Expect Horse Race Still for Ma Ying-jeou

(U) This document is sensitive but unclassified. Please
protect accordingly. Not for release outside u.s.
government channels. Not for internet publication.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GUANGZHOU 011045

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/CM, EAP/RSP/TC
STATE PASS USTR STRATFORD
USDOC FOR 4420/ITA/MAC/MCQUEEN, CELICO, DAS LEVINE
USPACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON PINR TW CH
SUBJECT: Ma May Not Make It -- Xiamen University Taiwan
Experts Expect Horse Race Still for Ma Ying-jeou

(U) This document is sensitive but unclassified. Please
protect accordingly. Not for release outside u.s.
government channels. Not for internet publication.


1. (SBU) Summary: A prominent Xiamen University Taiwan
Research Institute professor said that PRC leaders should
not be complacent in assuming that Kuomintang (KMT) leader
Ma Ying-jeou is a shoo-in to be the island's next
president. PRC leaders have consistently underestimated
the intensity of Taiwan identity, especially when
potentially manipulated by someone like Taiwan President
Chen Shui-pian against Ma. So even though the economic and
personal linkages between Taiwan and Fujian citizens grow
stronger by the day, the political landscape is likely to
remain unsettled for some time. End Summary.


2. (SBU) Passing through Xiamen as part of the Consulate's
"long march" through the Hakka and Minnan heartland of
eastern Guangdong and western Fujian, Congenoffs hosted a
Saturday luncheon with representatives of the Taiwan
Research Institute (TRI) of Xiamen University. The
Institute's Director and Deputy Director were not
available, traveling in Taiwan at the time in order to
accompany prominent Taiwan academics to Xiamen for the
university's 80th anniversary, but Political Science
Professor Chen Kongli sat in as the heavyweight of the
group that met with us, accompanied on the political side
by TRI Political Department Chief Sun Yun, his deputy Zhang
Wensheng, and Shi Zhengfang representing the economics side
of the institute.

Economic, Familial, Hometown Ties Stronger By The Minute
-------------- --------------

3. (SBU) The mention that the Consulate party had just
come from Zhangzhou, home to the third largest
concentration (following Suzhou and Dongguan) of Taiwan
business people and their families essentially residing
permanently on the mainland, elicited a discussion of the
strong economic, familial, and hometown ties that were

developing all throughout the Hakka and Minnan regions that
the Consulate party was traveling through. These are the
homeland regions of most Taiwanese. Hence, Meizhou is the
home area of KMT heavyweight Wu Poh-hsiung and a major
Hakka leader in Taiwan. Zhangzhou, for its part, is the
home town of luminaries such former KMT Presidential
contender Lien Chan and also plays host to a number of
Taiwan ventures in a huge array of industries, not the
least of which is agricultural product development.
Zhangzhou is also the home area of prominent "independence"
advocates such as Lu Hsiu-lien (Annette Lu) and Taiwan
President Chen Shui-pian itself.

Ma As the White Horse?
--------------

4. (SBU) The fly in the ointment in these strong and still
growing cross-straits ties is, of course, political and
foreign relations. Political chief Sun commented that the
recent visit by KMT head Ma Ying-jeou to the U.S. was being
portrayed in the Chinese media as an indication not only of
the U.S. displeasure with Chen Shui-pian but also as a
suggestion that the U.S. was supporting a Taiwan figure
such as Ma who, because he had reconfirmed the "1992
consensus," was someone who was not unilaterally altering
the situation in the Taiwan straits. Sun commented that
the U.S. had seemingly been careful not to talk about Ma as
the U.S. candidate and that, for their part, the Chinese
authorities had also been careful not to be seen as overly
enthusiastic by Ma's trip, lest there be a backlash in
Taiwan.


5. (SBU) At this point Professor Chen commented that
notwithstanding this careful public affairs stance by the
PRC, a number of Chinese leaders have told him that they
saw the future election of Ma as Taiwan's president as very
likely. Yes, Ma had a good track record as Taipei mayor,
yes, he has a degree of charisma, and yes, he is the sole
major Taiwan figure who is endorsing the "1992 consensus,"
but -- Professor Chen emphasized -- Ma is a mainlander,
and, like it or not, Taiwan identity remains important to

GUANGZHOU 00011045 002 OF 002


sufficiently large a core group of the Taiwan electorate
such that Ma is by no means a sure thing in a future
election. Moreover, Chinese leaders do not like Chen Shui-
pian, but they should not be blind to the fact that
President Chen is a master politician, quite capable of
mounting a major political attack against Ma, even if Ma
was by far the better mayor of Taipei. Therefore, China's
cross-straits strategy should not be based on what might be
a false assumption.

Comment
--------------

6. (SBU) The TRI is the oldest Taiwan watching academic
institution in China and is generally seen as having the
most insight into Taiwan domestic politics. Professor
Chen, for his part, is one of the oldest and most
experienced of Xiamen University's cadre of Taiwan
watchers, and while he avoided predictions about the
outcome of any future Taiwan presidential election, he
probably is correct that the dynamics of the contest will
be complex indeed.

Dong