SUBJECT: GUYANA ELECTION STATUS REPORT: AUGUST 31

C O N F I D E N T I A L GEORGETOWN 000862

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

WHA - DAS DUDDY
WHA/CAR
WHA/OAS
DS/IP/WHA
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/31/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM OAS GY
SUBJECT: SUBJECT: GUYANA ELECTION STATUS REPORT: AUGUST 31
AT 17:00 HOURS

REF: A. GEORGETOWN 860


B. GEORGETOWN 855

C. GEORGETOWN 854

D. GEORGETOWN 850

Classified By: AMBASSADOR DAVID M. ROBINSON FOR REASON 1.4(d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: GECOM is expected to officially announce
final results at 6:00 p.m. showing that the ruling PPP/C has
won the election and will retain its majority in the National
Parliament. Due to persistent rumors yesterday of impending
street protests by PNCR supporters, the PNCR released a press
statement denying the reports and PNCR leader Robert Corbin
later addressed the nation and reiterated the party's
commitment to maintaining an environment of peace.
Ambassador and select counterparts met privately with Corbin
in order to discuss the elections and address security issues
- although Corbin said all of the right things, the validity
of his assertions are called into question due to both his
and the PNCR's past history. As of today, Georgetown remains
calm and peaceful. End Summary.

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STILL UNOFFICIAL: PPP WINS ELECTION AND RETAINS MAJORITY
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2. (C) Although GECOM has yet to make the results of the
August 28 national and regional elections official, it is
clear that the PPP/C has won the election and has retained it
majority in the Parliament. With 96% of the vote verified,
the PPP/C stands at 55%, the PNCR at 33%, and the AFC at 8%.
Based upon current vote totals, the distribution of seats in
Parliament will be: PPP/C - 38; PNCR - 23; AFC - 3; and
GAP-ROAR - 1. Due to Guyana's peculiar distribution system,
there may be slight variance to these numbers once final
results are announced. GECOM had initially planned to have
the official results announced by August 30, but they have
been slow to verify the final votes - they plan to make the
election results official at 6:00 pm. today.

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PNC DENIES RUMORS OF PROTEST: CALLS FOR CALM
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3. (C) Persistent rumors began spreading yesterday that the
PNCR supporters were mobilizing and planning protest marches
on Georgetown and that a PNCR group in Buxton had plans to
set fires and use explosives as well. In response to these
rumors, the PNCR issued a press release denying any
involvement in such activity and condemning "these cheap
attempts at fermentation and cheap politicking." To further
underscore their position, Corbin addressed the nation
concerning the elections and the reports of impending
protests. Corbin's address, in pertinent part, stated that:
(1) the party is monitoring the results from GECOM to ensure
they are consistent with the information provided by Party
agents; (2) the PNCR is firmly committed to peace and justice
for all citizens and therefore has no interest in creating or
encouraging conditions of instability; and (3) there is a
hardened perception among the Guyanese Community that they
cannot survive another 5 years of PPP/C rule and that the
country faces imminent peril.

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CORBIN SAYS PNCR WILL BEHAVE
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4. (C) Ambassador, British High Commissioner, EU Ambassador,
and OAS Albert Ramdin met privately with Corbin and PNCR
Deputy Winston Murray Tuesday night to discuss the elections
and address security issues. Corbin stated that the PNCR's
tally of votes generally agreed with that reported by GECOM.
In regard to potential protests or violence, Corbin stated
that the PNCR wished to avoid trouble because "violence will
put a nail in our coffin." Corbin further reasoned that the
PNCR members could not live under 5 years under President
Jagdeo's rule, but that any real changes in government must
come through economic means, not political. Although Corbin

said all the right things in the meeting, there is reason to
question the sincerity of his comments. Both the PNCR and
Corbin have a long history of using force in order to make a
statement. The PNCR protests following the 2001 elections,
along with the history of rape and thuggish action by Corbin,
are sufficient evidence to demonstrate that problems may
still occur.

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COMMENT
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5. (C) The three days of calm that Guyana has enjoyed since
election day may have made this Guyana's most peaceful
election in two decades. This at least is one positive sign
that the political system is finally beginning to mature.
The overwhelming PPP/C victory is not good news for Guyana,
neither is the fact that voters appear to have split sharply
on racial lines - even more so than in past elections. The
next task for international donors is to figure out how to
advance an agenda for meaningful reform of Guyana's broken
and dangerous political system after the electorate's
apparent vote to maintain the status quo.
Robinson