GUYANA GENERAL ELECTIONS AUGUST 28: FINAL PREVIEW

C O N F I D E N T I A L GEORGETOWN 000850

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

WHA/CAR
WHA/OAS
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM GY
SUBJECT: GUYANA GENERAL ELECTIONS AUGUST 28: FINAL PREVIEW

REF: A. GEORGETOWN 838


B. GEORGETOWN 833

C. GEORGETOWN 828

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Michael D. Thomas
For reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Heading into the final weekend before
Guyana's August 28 general elections, international observers
have descended upon the capital in force. Two dozen Mission
employees and contractors will participate as observers under
the OAS' auspices. The ruling People's Progressive
Party/Civic (PPP/C) is going all out in its bid to maintain
an absolute majority in Parliament, which still looks
vulnerable (ref B). Some campaign tactics -- particularly by
the PPP/C -- have marred the final week. There have been no
reports of election-related violence since the August 8
murders of five newspaper employees, but the mood in
Georgetown remains apprehensive given the history of
post-election unrest. END SUMMARY.

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Election Nuts and Bolts
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2. (U) Guyanese go to the polls August 28 to elect their
president and parties for the National Assembly. The GoG has
declared August 28 a public holiday. Polls will open at
06:00 and lines to vote will close 18:00. Just under 2,000
polling stations will accommodate a controversial voters list
of 499,369 names -- with a maximum of 450 electors per
station. We expect nearer to 400,000 people will actually
vote, as the list includes many who registered in the 1997
and 2001 elections but have since migrated and will not
return to vote.

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International Observers Shoulder Big Responsibility
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3. (SBU) Four organizations are providing approximately 160
international observers. This is a big shortfall compared to
the 390 international observers that observed the 2001
election. The four observer groups are coordinating closely
with one another, despite very different mandates and
staffing.


4. (C) OAS: 124 observers, led by OAS A/SYG Albert Ramdin.
The only group with sufficient numbers to cover the election
comprehensively. Twenty-four U.S. mission employees and
contractors are volunteering as observers under the OAS'
auspices. Ramdin intends to stay in Guyana until September

2. He will then deliver his verbal report to the OAS
September 6. Ramdin predicts this report may include
admonishments about the need for electoral and constitutional
reforms in Guyana, laying the groundwork for a Permanent
Council declaration.


5. (C) The Carter Center: about 10 observers, led by Sir John
Compton (former St. Lucia prime minister). The focus of the
Carter Center's "presence" is on the pivotal post-election
period rather than election observation of polling sites.
Center officials have hinted that President Carter himself is
prepared to make himself available if it looks like a
breakthrough on governance reform can be clinched after the
elections.


6. (SBU) Commonwealth: 18 observers, led by Ratu Epeli
Nailatikau (former Fiji Islands deputy prime minister and
speaker). A group of VIP observers with limited knowledge of
Guyana -- unlikely to play a central post-election role.


7. (C) CARICOM: 10 observers, led by former Barbados Chief
Elections Officer Hensley Robinson. A modest team, as in the
past. CARICOM is still extremely reluctant to meddle in
member states' internal politics, although Ramdin wants
CARICOM to exert its influence more strongly in Guyana.

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Low Blows on Campaign Trail Homestretch
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8. (C) Two local television stations are refusing to air a
political advertisement, "The Great Pretender", that warns
viewers that People's National Congress/Reform (PNC/R) leader
Robert Corbin and Alliance For Change (AFC) leader Raphael
Trotman cannot be trusted. The attack ad -- not identified
as a PPP/C production -- shows footage of a riot of
Afro-Guyanese, presumably in Georgetown after the 2001
elections. Objective media experts agree that the ad is
unnecessary and out of place, especially at this late stage
of the campaign. Robert Persaud (President Jagdeo's chief
spin doctor) is staunchly defending the ad and other
questionable PPP/C media tactics.


9. (SBU) GoG authorities are searching the Linden area for
the transmitter of a three-week old pirate radio station.
The station is reportedly broadcasting music and political
advertisements for the PNC/R. The PPP/C is crying foul --
Head of the Presidential Secretariat Roger Luncheon
dispatched a letter of concern to Charge -- but the larger
issue is the GoG's continued hold on its radio monopoly
despite heavy national and external criticism.


10. (C) The Director of Public Prosecutions recommended
August 22 that Justice For All Party (JFAP) presidential
candidate C.N. Sharma be charged with indecent assault on a
minor. Sharma, a popular muckraking journalist and TV
station owner, is accused of indecently assaulting an
11-year-old girl in July. Sharma claims the move is nothing
but an attempt by the PPP/C to besmirch his character just
before the election. There is a history of similar such
charges against Sharma, including at least one several years
ago with some credibility. Many observers believe this
latest charge is an election-related political attack.


11. (U) In a sophomoric twist to the campaign's final week,
billboards advertising several parties including the PPP/C
and PNC/R have been painted over or ripped down. All sides
are denying responsibility and pinning blame on others.

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Campaign Issues
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12. (U) Unfortunately, the presidential candidates have not
held any public debates. The parties have often resorted to
mudslinging and name-calling. When they do turn to issues,
crime/security and jobs are the main focus. The PPP/C's
usual tactic is to compare statistics of how Guyana is faring
now compared to pre-1992 during the PNC's 28-year reign. The
opposition parties key on Guyana's economic stagnation, the
PPP/C's corruption and its perceived ties to
narco-criminality. This year's International Narcotics
Control Strategy Report (INCSR) has actually been one of the
more serious topics on the campaign trail. The PPP/C and
PNC/R have both aired advertisements quoting extensive
passages from the INCSR to support their respective positions.

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What We'll be Looking For
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13. (SBU) Post will follow two aspects of the election with
particular interest: a) The level of organization at the
polls and whether they close on time in an orderly fashion;
and b) The transmission and announcement of results.
Problems in these areas triggered unrest in Georgetown after
prior elections.


14. (SBU) GECOM is capable of pulling off a smooth election
day, but its internally fragmented structure and habit of
last-minute planning does not inspire confidence. An
indifferent voter education campaign has not helped matters.
Rumor spreads much quicker than fact in Guyana -- if a
disruptive rumor starts, it could make for a chaotic election
day.


15. (SBU) GECOM requested US$97,000 of donor funding August
22 for an elections media center. Communicating results
quickly and accurately is vital to a successful election. In
past elections, the process of announcing results has been
confused, delayed, or simply incorrect -- a catalyst for
post-election unrest and violence. The EU has stepped in to
contribute 50,000 Euros (about US$62,300) for this, which
should be enough to make the media center happen at this late
stage. USAID was prepared to assist as well, but would have
required more bureaucratic due diligence of the bloated
budget. Complicating matters further this time is AFC
campaign manager Dick Morris' plan to hire Gallup to do an
exit poll. Guyana has no history of an exit poll and a
population famously unwilling to reveal its ballot choices --
we fear that Morris' numbers may not match the actual results.

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Comment
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16. (SBU) The week leading up to elections has been
surprisingly quiet. By local standards, if the worst
conflict is about defacing billboards and controversial TV
ads, then that is good news. However, neither we nor our
Guyanese interlocutors are breathing easy yet -- that will
come only after the official results are in and accepted by
all parties. In a best-case scenario, that will occur by
August 31. But in Guyanese elections, there is almost always
a hitch. END COMMENT.
Thomas