Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06GEORGETOWN743
2006-07-28 13:01:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Georgetown
Cable title:  

NOMINATION DAY AND POLL PUT GUYANA ELECTIONS INTO

Tags:  PGOV KDEM GY 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO3961
RR RUEHGR
DE RUEHGE #0743/01 2091301
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 281301Z JUL 06
FM AMEMBASSY GEORGETOWN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3853
INFO RUCNCOM/EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 0986
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0358
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0139
RUEHOT/AMEMBASSY OTTAWA 2167
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0073
RUMIAAA/HQ USSOUTHCOM J2 MIAMI FL
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 GEORGETOWN 000743 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

WHA/CAR
WHA/OAS
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM GY
SUBJECT: NOMINATION DAY AND POLL PUT GUYANA ELECTIONS INTO
FOCUS

REF: GEORGETOWN 724

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 GEORGETOWN 000743

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

WHA/CAR
WHA/OAS
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM GY
SUBJECT: NOMINATION DAY AND POLL PUT GUYANA ELECTIONS INTO
FOCUS

REF: GEORGETOWN 724


1. (U) SUMMARY: Georgetown was boisterous on July 26
Nomination Day as the political parties -- arriving in turns
to the tune of chanting supporters and Caribbean music --
presented their candidate lists to the Chief Election Officer
at City Hall. A less than expected total of eleven parties
appeared, only six of which have a realistic shot at winning
seats in the National Assembly on August 28. Independent
poll results released the same day show the PPP/C in line to
win the presidency again but short of recapturing an outright
majority in the National Assembly. END SUMMARY.

--------------
Six Parties Capable of Winning Seats
--------------


2. (U) Nomination Day went off with hardly a hitch July 26.
Eleven parties appeared at Georgetown's City Hall to present
their candidate lists for Guyana's August 28 national and
regional elections, much fewer than the thirty-plus parties
that had attended Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM)
preparatory meetings. Following are snapshots of the six
parties capable of winning National Assembly seats. Five
other parties presented candidates but are not expected to
contest the election on a national level.


3. (SBU) People's Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/C)
Presidential candidate: Bharrat Jagdeo
Prime Minister candidate: Samuel Hinds
Seats won in 2001: 34

Rumors abound that current PM Hinds, despite being named as
Prime Ministerial candidate, does not intend to continue in
the government, preferring assignment as Ambassador to
Ottawa. One rumored successor, Geology and Mines
Commissioner Robeson Benn, appears on the candidate list.
Moses Nagamootoo, a charismatic and well-liked PPP veteran
who publicly split with the party in 2005, has returned to
the fold and appears on the list. Attorney-General Doodnauth
Singh, who recently received emergency medical treatment in
the U.S., is not on the list. Nor is 85 year-old PPP
co-founder and former President Janet Jagan.


4. (SBU) One Guyana People's National Congress Reform
(OG/PNCR)
Presidential candidate: Robert Corbin
Prime Minister candidate: To be announced July 30 at a
campaign kick-off rally -- unclear whether OG/PNCR has even
decided yet who it will be. 2001 PM candidate Stanley Ming,

founder of the party's Reform wing and said to have recently
resigned from the PNCR's Central Executive, is not on the
list.
Seats won in 2001: 27

Corbin is leading a party with an image problem and little
time to correct it before elections. The ungainly OG/PNCR
acronym made its first appearance on Nomination Day. The
PNCR had been scrambling to decide just who would join their
camp to contest elections. The "One Guyana" part of the
platform includes the small National Front Alliance party
(received 0.1 percent of the vote in 2001),unnamed unions,
and unnamed civic organizations. It seems unlikely that this
amalgamation will boost the PNCR's appeal at the ballot box.

What the PNCR can still boast is a core of fervent
supporters, as evidenced when they broke through the security
gate and filled City Hall's courtyard just before the six
o'clock deadline for submitting candidate lists. This is the
same time that large PNCR groups have been known to rush
polling stations demanding to vote just before closing on
election day. The symmetry was not lost on Guyanese who
observed the scene.


5. (U) Alliance For Change (AFC)
Presidential candidate: Raphael Trotman
Prime Minister candidate: Khemraj Ramjattan
Seats won in 2001: n/a


GEORGETOWN 00000743 002 OF 003


The seven-month old AFC's candidate list, tilted to youth and
unproven politicians below the three co-leaders, did not
contain any big surprises. Some expected to see high-profile
defectors from other parties on the list.


6. (SBU) Justice For All Party (JFAP)
Presidential candidate: C. N. Sharma
Prime Minister candidate: Geoffrey Sankies
Seats won in 2001: 0

TV-station owner and muckraking newsman Sharma is one of
Guyana's most recognizable and popular figures. Although the
elite disparage his Creolese dialect, poorer Guyanese
gravitate to his man-of-the-people demeanor. Sharma thought
he had won a National Assembly seat in 2001 but a
recalculation showed he lost it by only a few votes. The GoG
took Sharma's TV channel off the air during the January 2005
floods because it deemed his news broadcasts too critical of
the government's response to the disaster.


7. (U) Guyana Action Party/Rise Organize And Rebuild
(GAP/ROAR)
Presidential candidate: Paul Hardy, GAP leader
Prime Minister candidate: Ravi Dev, ROAR leader
Seats won in 2001: GAP/WPA 2, ROAR 1

GAP and ROAR are all that remain of the "big tent" concept
for a coalition of smaller opposition parties to run
together. Hardy's constituency is among the Amerindian
communities in Guyana's hinterland. Dev draws his support
from rural Indo-Guyanese.


8. (U) The United Force (TUF)
Presidential candidate: Manzoor Nadir
Prime Minister candidate: Michael Abraham
Seats won in 2001: 1

Nadir is Minister of Tourism, Industry, and Commerce in the
PPP/C government, but will contest the election independently.

--------------
Notably Absent
--------------


9. (SBU) A few small parties that had been expected to run
have pulled out of the election. The Working People's
Alliance (WPA) announced July 25 that it would boycott the
elections. The party joined forces with GAP in 2001 and won
two seats. The WPA was an instrumental part of the Marxist
anti-PNC government movement in the 1970s and 1980s, but has
become less relevant in recent years, too academic, and its
constituency has dwindled -- it may not be back. Neither the
Unity Party (led by Joey Jagan, son of former President and
PPP leader Cheddi Jagan) nor Amcit businessman Peter
Ramsaroop's Vision Guyana -- one-man outfits that failed to
latch onto a coalition -- will contest the 2006 election.

--------------
Independent Poll Results
--------------


10. (U) The North American Caribbean Teachers Association
(NACTA) released the results of its latest opinion poll July

26. NACTA is unique in having a proven track record of
political polling in Guyana, and the results carry more
weight than those of political parties' own polls. NACTA
conducted face-to-face interviews of approximately 2,180
persons throughout the country. The racial composition of
the sample closely mirrored the most recent census data.


11. (U) Poll results -- support for political parties:
PPP/C: 42 percent (won 53 percent in 2001)
PNCR: 29 percent (won 42 percent in 2001)
AFC: 13 percent
JFAP: 5 percent (won 1 percent in 2001)
GAP/ROAR: 1 percent
TUF: 1 percent (won 1 percent in 2001)
Other/undecided: 9 percent


GEORGETOWN 00000743 003 OF 003


--------------
Comment
--------------


12. (SBU) Although the mood was mostly festive and peaceful
during Nomination Day, the aggressive last-minute arrival of
the PNCR contingent exposed an inability or unwillingness on
the part of the PNCR leaders to curb the energy of their most
fervent supporters. Unfortunately, this is a sign that the
mob activity which traditionally mars Guyanese elections is
not a thing of the past. The question remains how serious it
will be.


13. (U) Comment continued: The NACTA poll results reinforce
the conventional wisdom that the PPP/C's ability to secure an
outright majority is in doubt and that the AFC (or even the
JFAP) is poised to win enough seats to act as balance of
power. This outcome would usher in a new era of coalition
government. The election is shaping up to be the closest and
least predictable in Guyana's history, which only gives the
major parties more incentive to resort to crude campaign
tactics over the next thirty days. End comment.

THOMAS