JAGDEO DETERMINED TO HOLD ELECTIONS ON AUGUST 28

C O N F I D E N T I A L GEORGETOWN 000685

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

WHA/CAR
WHA/OAS
S/CRS
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/13/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM OAS GY
SUBJECT: JAGDEO DETERMINED TO HOLD ELECTIONS ON AUGUST 28

REF: A. GEORGETOWN 663

B. GEORGETOWN 594

C. GEORGETOWN 462

D. GEORGETOWN 371

Classified By: DCM Michael D. Thomas
For Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: President Jagdeo is determined to hold
national elections on August 28 -- one to two weeks sooner
than expected -- and within the constitutional deadline. The
Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM) needs to push hard to be
ready by then. The pressure is also on donor countries and
international organizations to ensure that observer missions
will be operational on time. Much of the political
opposition will be up in arms when word of a possible August
28 date gets out. They or the courts could still derail the
election.

--------------
Jagdeo Predicts August 28 Polling Day
--------------


2. (C) President Jagdeo confidentially told Ambassador during
a July 11 meeting that the Election Day will be August 28.
This date is one to two weeks sooner than expected given that
GECOM decided in April that it could not deliver elections
before August 30 (ref D). Jagdeo said August 28 has the
following advantages: 1) it is on a Monday, Guyana's
traditional voting day; 2) it falls within the (extended)
constitutional timeframe; and 3) it allows five days for
slippage while remaining within the extended constitutional
deadline. (Note: In prior conversations Jagdeo has admitted
his great concern that an election delay will tarnish his
reputation on the international stage.)


3. (C) For the ruling People's Progressive Party (PPP),
August 28 is also extremely convenient because it allows them
to strike quickly before other parties have much chance to
campaign and gain momentum. The PPP is prepared to risk
pushing GECOM staff into the election faster than they would
like. Tellingly, GECOM's Chairman hinted to donors at July
12 meeting that he is aware of Jagdeo's preferred timing and
"things are gelling" to make that possible. However, it
would be premature to say the process is going full steam
ahead -- a few hazards remain. For example, a number of
legal questions about the voters list remain unresolved (ref
B). The courts have been reluctant to deal with these
lawsuits so far; but GECOM's Chairman has stated publicly
that he will abide by any court decision, even if it means
delaying elections. Also, those who buy into the hard-line
rhetoric of the PNC/R and WPA opposition parties could take
to the streets in a bid to postpone elections. (Note:
Speaker of the National Assembly told Ambassador there is
well-established case law that suits of the sort filed by the
PNC can only be filed and heard as Election Petitions after
the election, not as law suits before the elections. Thus
the current suits should be dismissed.)


4. (C) Jagdeo's predicted timeline for an August 28 Election
Day:

-- July 20: Statutory period for displaying the Revised List
of Electors ends.
-- o/a July 21: GECOM notifies Jagdeo that the Official List
of Electors (OLE, the final voters list) is printed and ready.
-- July 24/25: Jagdeo immediately announces Nomination Day of
July 27 and Election Day of August 28.
-- July 27: Nomination Day, deadline for parties to submit
lists of candidates. This kicks off the 32-day statutory
campaign period and the real election countdown.
-- August 28: Election Day
-- September 2: Constitutional deadline for the newly elected
Parliament to meet (ref C).

-------------- --------------
August 28 Date Ratchets Up Urgency of Election Observers
-------------- --------------


5. (C) This latest election plan leaves very little time for
international observer missions to get organized. Currently,
only two OAS and one Commonwealth Secretariat (ComSec)
long-term election observers are in Guyana. Short-term OAS
and ComSec missions are expected to follow, but the August 28
Election Day catches the observers by surprise. There were
over 200 international observers for the last election in

2001. The same number, at an absolute minimum, will be
required this time. There will be nearly 2,000 polling
stations. The credibility of the election will hinge largely
on the effective monitoring of polling stations susceptible
to fraud (i.e., in mono-ethnic communities). For the
observation missions to run smoothly, it is critical that
capitals act quickly on requests for resources.

--------------
Comment: Where does August 28 put us?
--------------


6. (C) No one has spoken seriously about an August Election
Day for over three months. But the view among Guyana's
political circles is now tilting towards a consensus that
elections will indeed go ahead by the end of August. From
the perspective of the U.S. and other donors, whether
Election Day is August 28 or later is irrelevant -- as long
as the date allows enough time for GECOM to be fully prepared
to run an election up to international standards. Meeting
this new deadline seems possible, but very tight. The
donors' other, more elusive, objective is for all parties to
participate in the elections and accept the results.
Unfortunately, the stubborn opposition will likely discredit
the results and tacitly condone election-related turmoil
regardless of timing. END COMMENT.

BULLEN